wolfie09

Friday night and Saturday the vertically stacked low will continue to elongate and push eastward...with its axis reaching western Quebec and western New England by early Saturday evening. As this system pushes further east...an embedded strong shortwave and secondary cold front will also slide eastward and across our area. These features will bring about a general chance for some additional scattered showers...while also ushering in a secondary shot of colder air aloft. Coupled with a corresponding increase in background synoptic-scale moisture...the progressively colder air crossing the warmer waters of the Lower Great Lakes will help to trigger a lake response. This will initially take shape off Lake Erie on a somewhat sheared south-southwesterly flow Friday night... which will help to direct the bulk of the activity across the Niagara Peninsula... Niagara county...and adjoining portions of Northern Erie and Orleans counties. On Saturday the low level flow over Lake Erie will then gradually veer more west-southwesterly... which will result in the Lake Erie lake effect drifting south to areas ENE of the lake. At the same time a southwesterly flow will develop across Lake Ontario...allowing for a band of lake effect showers to develop across Jefferson county and the uppermost Saint Lawrence Valley. With respect to precipitation type...current thermal profiles still suggest that the column will remain warm enough for the bulk of the precipitation to fall in the form of plain rain through Saturday... save for the higher terrain where some wet snow may mix in later Friday night/early Saturday morning...and again toward Saturday evening. With regard to surface temperatures...lows Friday night should range from the mid 30s across the colder interior portions of the Southern Tier/North Country to the upper 30s/near 40 elsewhere...with highs on Saturday then ranging from the upper 30s to mid 40s across far western New York to the mid and upper 40s further east. Saturday night and Sunday upper level troughing and plentiful cool air aloft will persist across our region...helping to support a continued lake response downwind of the lakes. In general the medium range model consensus supports a continued veering of the low level flow to westerly for Saturday night and the first part of Sunday... with the flow then backing a bit again to west-southwest during Sunday as the main upper level trough reloads across the Upper Great Lakes...and a corresponding weak surface wave develops across Michigan/southern Ontario. Should this verify...any lake effect activity should drift further south to areas east of the lakes for Saturday night/early Sunday...before migrating a bit northward again during Sunday. With 850 mb temps lowering just a little further to -5C to -6C thermal profiles will become more marginal for rain vs. snow...with the resultant ptype therefore more dependent on the precipitation intensity and time of day. At this point some accumulating snows are not out of the question Saturday night and Sunday morning as the lake effect begins to intersect the higher terrain...however it remains far too early to attempt to pin down locations and amounts. Sunday night and Monday the medium range guidance continues to gradually come into better agreement on the aforementioned surface wave crossing our region in conjunction with the passage of the main upper level trough axis. Such a scenario would likely at least temporarily weaken if not outright disrupt any lake effect via corresponding adjustments to the low level flow...while also bringing about a more general chance of rain and snow showers. Following the passage of this feature...a general west-northwesterly flow of colder air (850 mb temps of -7C to -9C) should then follow for Monday night and Tuesday...leading to some additional lake effect precipitation east-southeast of both lakes. During this latter time frame...have elected to lean more heavily on the ECMWF/GEM solutions rather than the GFS...which appears much too fast at ejecting the upper trough and bringing warm air advection into our area on Tuesday.

Rain

Well at least the GFS is active..

Refs have money on the game? Lol I didn't watch the game but I heard officiating was horrendous, especially towards the bears..

Anticipated flow transition will lead to development and passage of an amplified upper trough over the central to eastern U.S. Friday/Saturday as a potent surface low lifts northeastward through the Midwest/Great Lakes into eastern Canada. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward across the East, favoring a swath of moderate to locally heavy rain as fueled by long fetch moisture influx from the Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic. The progressive nature of the front may limit runoff threat, but the best potential may be over favored terrain of interior New England. Enhanced wrap-around then lake effect snows are expected from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and into the northern Appalachians/Northeast. Cold air and return moisture flow with another potent upper shortwave/surface system digging into the Midwest/Great Lakes onward on the heels of the lead storm will favor local snows across the region.

Erie should be warm enough to jump in if needed..

At this juncture...the medium range model consensus continues to suggest a prevailing southwesterly flow through Saturday...with the flow then gradually becoming more westerly Saturday night and Sunday. Off Lake Erie...this should result in fairly organized lake effect developing northeast of the lake Friday night and continuing through Saturday...before settling a bit further south to areas east of the lake Saturday night and Sunday. Off Lake Ontario...an initially more sheared/southerly low level flow should help to keep any lake effect much more limited Friday night...with activity then becoming better established across Jefferson county Saturday before also settling southward and continuing to organize Saturday night/Sunday as the fetch across the lake increases. Initially...thermal profiles will be warm enough to lead to plain rain showers off both lakes...but as these cool and become more marginal for rain vs. snow...ptype will also become more of a question mark...with this heavily dependent on the precipitation intensity...time of day...and how cool aloft it gets. At this point some accumulating snows are not out of the question...particularly Saturday night and Sunday morning as the lake effect begins to intersect the higher terrain...however it remains way too early to attempt to pin down locations and amounts. As we get out into the latter reaches of this period...the 00z guidance suite continues to suggest the potential for some semblance of a surface wave to pass near or just south of our region Sunday night and Monday...in conjunction with the passage of the main upper level trough axis. Such a development would likely at least temporarily disrupt any lake effect via modulation of the low level flow...while also bringing a more general chance of rain and snow showers. Otherwise...temperatures will remain below normal through early next week...with nighttime lows in the 30s and daytime highs struggling to get above the lower to mid 40s.

Hell of a look on the LR GFS, has as much of a chance of verifying as the giants winning the SB lol

Euro is farther NW with that system and Warmer. Ggem farther south..

Would be nice lol This is the system that interrupts ongoing lake effect.

A cold front will move across the area and produce rain showers Thursday night. Ample moisture and forcing along the front will allow a solid band of showers with good model agreement supporting categorical POPS Thursday night. Rainfall amounts should average a quarter to a half inch, except up to an inch east of Lake Ontario. Rain showers will end from west to east during Friday. The pattern will become favorable for lake effect rain or snow showers during the weekend, with cooler air and troughing aloft. The pattern will become quite amplified across North America as a deep trough becomes established over the Upper Midwest and then migrates downstream into the Great Lakes, while a ridge builds in the west. There`s still uncertainty in the wind direction, and whether the thermal profile will be cold enough to support snow. In general, expect a prevailing southwest flow through Saturday night. This would tend to produce more organized bands off of Lake Erie. Expect showers to develop across the Niagara Frontier Friday night. These will initially be rain showers, but model consensus shows 850mb temperatures dropping to -6c by Saturday morning which would be cold enough to support some snow. This cool air aloft will remain in place through the weekend, along with a cyclonic flow aloft which will provide synoptic scale moisture. This will support lake effect rain and snow showers, especially northeast of the lakes and east of the lakes at times. Precipitation type will be marginal, depending on precipitation intensity, time of day, and how cool aloft it is. Accumulating snows are also not out of the question, however it`s far too early to pin down locations and amounts. Confidence is not quite there to add to the HWO, but this may be considered later as model guidance comes into better agreement. The 12Z GFS/ECMWF bring stacked low pressure across the region Sunday night and Monday. This could support more widespread rain or snow showers inland from the lakes. Other guidance keeps the system an open wave which would maintain more of a lake effect environment. Either way, temperatures will remain below normal during the period.

Euro pretty much has two systems over the next 8 days or so with LE behind both, varying wind direction(not that it matters) and obviously marginal temps lol Most of this"snow" is really a mix verbatim..(lower elevations)..

We have already surpassed our average high of 49°, on our way to the upper 50s today.. Don't get me wrong it still feels nice lol

Yeah BW if that haha..And for good reason lol We are really more"neutral" with a 50/50 chance of either.. Look at the euro ahead of the front and behind the front, it will take us a week to make up those +anomalies lol Granted after Saturday its mainly BA throughout, just not by much...

D6-10

CPC Week 3-4..

Lots of upsets today lol Giants Jags Broncos Falcons Browns And vikings tied in OT with Baltimore..

Cool down on the euro is more of an average down lol Then SE ridge returns..

Welcome aboard.. Nice to see the"upstate" forum grow.. Good luck with your move..

Looks like a decent amount of rain this weekend..

Colder air will arrive later Friday through Saturday as the trough slowly progresses into the Great Lakes. The deeper cold air will remain over the western Great Lakes through Saturday, so while it will trend colder, precipitation type is likely to stay mainly rain in wrap around and lake effect showers.

Looks like the computer models are starting to pick up the Matt effect, by next update I expect to see some oranges and reds popping up between all that blue..

Euro did have 1 wintry event off to the east..

Yup..lol It will obviously change, hopefully..

Those are obviously heights.. Every model shows a deep trough, greatest anomalies to the south..(at least initially) After this time frame who knows lol GFS also shows a clipper like system D 8-9 Fwiw..