wolfie09

Starting to see some graupel here.

Even some of the lower elevation need to watch this lol If heavier precipitation rates can bring down some cooler air to the BL.. Either way it would be first flakes on the year..

I guess you gotta start somewhere lol

Lake effect snow may accumulate across higher terrain including the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks Tuesday and Wednesday. The best chance for accumulating snow is on Tuesday night when there`s a potential for 3 to 5 inches of accumulation.

Well looking at the information I have provided for me through the 27th of October, daytime highs were +3 while lows were+8, average+5.5..The last 4 days of the month probably lowers that some...

Lake induced equilibrium levels will rise from 10K feet Monday night to about 15K feet Tuesday, then rise further to over 20K feet Tuesday night into Wednesday as the core of coldest air aloft crosses the eastern Great Lakes. This will support a good chance of thunder at times in the stronger bands off both lakes. Lake Erie... Monday evening the lake response will still be limited by sparse synoptic scale moisture. Later Monday night a frontal wave will pass through the Ohio Valley and bring more synoptic scale moisture into play. At the same time a surface trough will cross Lake Erie, bringing an uptick in low level convergence. This will allow a band of lake effect to expand and intensify across the Southern Tier overnight, with the eastern end extending all the way across the Finger Lakes by late Monday night. Sufficient moisture and another surface trough will support a continuation of lake effect Tuesday and Tuesday night east of Lake Erie, mainly across the western Southern Tier. The eastern end will extend across the Finger Lakes at times with deep inland penetration. Finally by Wednesday, boundary layer flow will veer more WNW, with lighter upslope/lake effect persisting over the Southern Tier Wednesday through Wednesday night. Precipitation type will be all rain initially Monday evening. Later Monday night through Tuesday temperatures aloft and in the boundary layer will cool sufficiently to allow wet snow to mix in across the higher terrain inland from Lake Erie, with a few of the highest hills possibly going to all wet snow at times. There is a better chance of a change to all wet snow Tuesday night and Wednesday when the column cools further. The heaviest lake effect precip will fall Monday night through Tuesday when temperatures are still very marginal for accumulation, with lighter precipitation amounts Tuesday night and Wednesday. Given the marginal temperatures, accumulation potential looks limited, with minor accumulations on the higher hills. Lake Ontario... Dry air will limit the lake response through much of Monday night, with a relatively weak band over the Tug Hill moving north towards Watertown by late Monday night. Boundary layer moisture and instability improve late Monday night through Tuesday morning, so expect a more organized band of lake effect to center over central and northern Jefferson County as boundary layer flow becomes southwesterly. This band will tend to break up for awhile Tuesday afternoon and evening as drier air and shear move over eastern Lake Ontario. Tuesday night through Wednesday morning a stronger trough will bring a big increase in synoptic scale moisture and convergence to Lake Ontario. Expect a band of heavy lake effect to develop near Watertown initially, then move south across the Tug Hill later Tuesday night, reaching Oswego County by Wednesday morning. Boundary layer flow then becomes WNW Wednesday, with a broader area of lake effect showers southeast of Lake Ontario from the Niagara Frontier to Central NY by afternoon. Lake effect will continue east and southeast of Lake Ontario into Wednesday night. Precipitation type will be strongly influenced by terrain east of Lake Ontario through the event. The lower elevations close to Lake Ontario will stay mainly rain, with some graupel or wet flakes mixing in at times, especially Tuesday night and Wednesday when the coldest air aloft crosses overhead. The best accumulation potential for the higher terrain of the Tug Hill and western Adirondacks will come Tuesday night when the strong band moves south across the area, with several inches of wet snow possible.

It's also has the best shot of wintry precipitation Tuesday night into Wednesday morning..It all comes down to overcoming the BL which torches due to the lake.. Warmer the lake=harder it is to snow close to the lake.. Obviously we do better the 2nd half of the month, we'll see how that goes lol

Well looks like the euro caved to the GFS..

Ggem back to a GFS like solution with HP suppressing the next system..

Quite a dreary day, only around 0.15" overnight but dealing with some mist/drizzle at the moment..

It's funny that the disco says all rain for lower elevations but the P&C has potential for snow showers to mix in almost every day lol Tuesday A chance of rain and snow showers before 9am, then a chance of rain showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 48. Southwest wind 9 to 13 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Tuesday Night Rain showers likely before 3am, then rain and snow showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Wednesday Snow showers likely before 9am, then rain and snow showers likely between 9am and 10am, then rain showers likely after 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Night Rain showers likely before 10pm, then rain and snow showers likely between 10pm and 5am, then snow showers likely after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Snow showers likely before 9am, then a chance of rain and snow showers between 9am and 11am, then a chance of rain showers after 11am. Partly sunny, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Night A chance of rain showers before 11pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Friday Night A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Euro is similar to the Ggem and has been inland for several runs but it doesn't matter because it's rain lol Look at 540 thickness line, tied to the low up north..

Worst COOP ever lol

GFS with on and off lake showers most of the week.. Not much going on synoptic wise..

Swing and a miss as of now.. 00z model guidance has trended weaker and further offshore with a potential coastal low off the East Coast on Friday. Therefore, trended PoPs down a bit, however trough and lake influences support low chances Thursday night and Friday.

https://www.wgrz.com/amp/article/weather/strong-solar-flare-to-lead-to-potential-viewing-of-northern-lights-this-weekend-western-new-york-weather-halloween-weekend/71-b706af6e-f886-4d7e-b62a-f4da6744f868

Euro still showing some snow even for the some blower elevations.. Forecast has the potential for snow to mix in from Wednesday night through Friday, granted pops at 30%.. NWS mentions light accumulation for the higher elevations.. While these will initially be in the form of just plain rain...continued cooling of the column should eventually result in the precip mixing with and/or changing to snow outright across the higher terrain... which could in turn result in our first minor accumulations of the season.

We had 0.66" overnight, on and off showers this morning..

Rochester reporting heavy rain, little more than 3/4" as of last update (9:54pm)..

Looks like a nice soaking down there..

Quite a pleasant afternoon with surface temperatures in the mid-upper 50s and dews in the mid -upper 30s..Good day to cut the grass, hoping it's my last one lol

Well at least parts of the tug will probably see some snow in the coming days Another"wasted" event early in the season, wish these storm tracks would hold off a few weeks lol

GFS has a little something on Wednesday morning..Now TT shows us just in the rain verbatim while PW has snow to the lake shore.. Either way obviously marginal, surface in the mid 30s..

Can't take these numbers at face value as some of this is R/S mix..But the euro does have several bouts of wintry weather..