wolfie09

Yeah it's 63° here lol With a West wind.. Forecast low is 53°, doubt we see that..

Man we're approaching the daily high at 10 pm lol Need less than a degree.. Lake really a toaster bath huh? Even 5 miles inland, winds are pretty strong this evening..Dps up to 56°, almost tropical out lol

Probably won't be dropping much this evening unless this changes lol Temp has actually gone up a little lol I'm sure this onshore flow is keeping the dews higher as well..

It's interesting that DPs are in the upper 30s at KSYR but around 50° at all the local WU stations.. Must be some drier air around there, either way it was a pleasant day, 63° for the high, gusty winds.. Temps starting to drop now.. Unfortunately I think the radar will remain the same lol I use WU and they will be effected as well..

Winter outlook

Seems to be the"consensus" for this winter.. Guess only time will tell lol

Binghamton radar is next for an upgrade..

Ptype will be mainly rain next weekend, but with H85 temps flirting with -5c or even -6c at times later in the weekend per some of the colder guidance, could see some wet snowflakes across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario (Sat night and Sun Night) and possibly even over western NY (Sun night). Trough axis will begin shifting east next Monday but next system could quickly bring another chance of rain. Pops were kept in the slight chance range for now. Temps will be similar or even cooler to what just occurred with daytime highs Saturday through Monday only in the 50s and even staying in the 40s east of Lake Ontario. Nighttime lows for all but the immediate lake plains (around 40) will drop into the 30s.

These aren't necessarily highs but early afternoon temps on the euro Saturday through Monday..

I think some could struggle to get out of the 40s this weekend into early next week.. Right now the forecast is 50-51 through that period..I think it will also be the end of growing season for some, especially away from the lake..

Through mid month..

Euro weeklies control run, posted on another board, pretty much through November.. Source

Last 3 months average weak nino "ish"..Last year peak quarterly was -1.3(ond) pretty close to strong status, majority of winter was in a moderate phase..

The IRI/CPC plume average of forecasts for the Niño-3.4 SST index favors La Niña to continue through the fall and winter 2021-22 [Fig. 6]. The forecaster consensus also anticipates La Niña to continue through the winter, with ENSO-neutral predicted to return during March-May 2022. Because of the recent oceanic cooling and coupling to the atmosphere, forecasters now anticipate a 57% chance of one season (November-January) reaching -1.0°C or less in the Niño-3.4 index. Thus, at its peak, a moderate-strength La Niña is favored. In summary, La Niña conditions have developed and are expected to continue with an 87% chance of La Niña in December 2021- February 2022 (click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chances in each 3-month period). La Niña is anticipated to affect temperature and precipitation across the United States during the upcoming months (the 3-month seasonal temperature and precipitation outlooks will be updated on Thurs. October 21st). Source

First came the panic commentary about the "coming bitter cold winter". Then, almost like magic, some firms and agencies dedicated to forecasting, proclaimed "no winter expected". Now you and I have been through this routine in previous autumns. As always, when presented with two extremes, the proper course is somewhere in the middle. The upcoming NDJFM period will prove to be no different. I think we should look at the most important players in the low sun period arena. We can start with the La Nina episode. The ENSO signature is very real, destined like last winter to reach a moderate-to-strong rating (I will say -1.5 deg C differential in sector 3.4). The cooling is not making it to the westernmost area of the Pacific Ocean, which means that tropical cyclone production may remain in play to the right of the Orient during much of November. With percolations of the Madden-Julian Oscillation to the left of the International Dateline, there will be chances for ridge formation in Alaska and northwestern Canada. But mostly in a transient manner. We again see impressive subtropical jet stream formation, often depressed to very low latitudes into northwestern Mexico, Texas and Florida. That was evident last year, and the equatorial Pacific Ocean is similar to 2020 and can be used as an analog. Repeated reformation of both the Gulf Of Alaska Low, in ever-deeper intensities and cold pooling, and teh recent emergence of mA vortices over the Grand Banks/Flemish Cap are also a cold teleconnection for the eastren two-thirds of the continent. In a La Nina, the pools of cold air and vorticity come across the Pacific Northwest into the Prairie Provinces or Upper Midwest and Great Lakes into the St. Lawrence Valley. So a good deal of the U.S., above Interstate 70 and to the left of the Appalachian Mountains, should be turning colder this November. The x-factor here: will we see a late October storm that draws moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea, and targets the Eastern Seaboard? It could happen, even if that is not apparent on any of the computer schemes. Since another vortex is likely to form over Newfoundland, energy from the polar westerlies might link or phase with a tropical or subtropical impulse. If that happens, a somewhat more meaningful cold intrusion into the eastern U.S. may occur by the second week of November. Source

Always tough to get those temps down with that toasty lake lol This is the coldest frame on the euro.. Monday and Tuesday have a shot at upper 30s as well.. We are now at the point where we should expect that on a nightly basis..

Hijacked this off another board.. CFS for mid November.. Source

Yeah, looks like the return of the SE ridge, at least for a few days , until the next cold front sweeps through, looking chilly by weeks end, low 50s and upper 30s..

Some lake effect showers still ongoing..Picked up around 0.40" overnight, 2.35' the last couple/few days..

GFS is probably running a little to cool.(as usual)But euro also showing some 30s from time to time..

An upper level trough will move across the region late in the work week and persist through next weekend. Showers will spread across western and north central NY ahead of a cold front Thursday-Friday. The associated area of low pressure will be stretched along the cold front to the north creating an area of increased convergence near our region. A shortwave trough and exiting upper level jet will create strong synoptic forcing which increases the chance for a widespread, soaking rain through Friday. Cold air will rush into the region Friday night into Saturday. Lake effect rain showers will increase in coverage with 850mb temperatures dropping to at least -2C. Some guidance depicts it may be colder which could result in some snowflakes mixing in across the higher terrain Saturday night-Sunday. Temperatures start off in the low to mid 60s Thursday. They will take a dive Friday and into the weekend with highs in the low 50s. Lows will likely reach the 30s across the higher terrain beginning Friday night.

The one thing I'll say is it's hard to compare, at least precipitation wise.."Warmth" holds more moisture than cold dry air..DPs for example wouldn't be near 50°..

Looks like some sort of convergence.. Fulton reporting mainly SW winds today...