wolfie09

Sorry to hear that Matt Wishing your wife a speedy recovery and praying it doesn't get worse.. Keep us up to date and be safe..

Closer to the Great Lakes, the big story this winter will be lake-effect snow. “Lake-effect snow in the Great Lakes --- look out,” Pastelok warned. “If it all does come together, we could have a pretty busy season as far as lake-effect snow [goes] for all of the Great Lakes.” The first rounds of lake-effect snow are likely to start in late November and into December, but the pattern that meteorologists often refer to as "the lake-effect snow machine" will kick into high gear as the calendar turns to 2022. One reason the worst of the lake-effect snow is expected to hold off until January is the state of the Great Lakes heading into the season. The water temperatures in all five lakes as of late September were above normal. Water temperatures were about 1 degree Fahrenheit above normal in Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, about 2.5 F above normal in Lake Huron and Lake Michigan, and 5 F above normal in Lake Superior, according to NOAA Coast Watch. As of late September, some of the warmest waters in the Great Lakes were concentrated in Lake Erie, where readings at stations on the coast of Cleveland and Buffalo topped 67 degrees. In the southern parts of Lake Michigan, near Chicago, water temperatures remained above 60 degrees at the end of September. With only intermittent intrusions of cold air before a persistent flow of Arctic air in January, the lakes will remain open for business well into winter. Buffalo, New York, is predicted to measure around 100 inches of snow this winter, slightly above the average of 95 inches and noticeably above last season, during which the city measured a total of 77 inches. Farther west, the bigger story will be the unrelenting waves of cold air. “If you live in the northern Plains and Great Lakes, I think you really have to pay attention to the cold shots that come down," Pastelok said referring to Arctic air blasting down from Canada. Temperatures in January could end up being 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit lower than they were last winter across the Plains -- and the Arctic air is likely to remain in place over the region into February.

Take it with a tablespoon of salt..

Sunday and Sunday night, forecast is trending wetter areawide as shortwave energy and a potential weak sfc low approaches the Lower Lakes. Have again nudges POPs up areawide with the best chance for precipitation likely occuring Sunday afternoon and then continuing into Sunday night. Chances for showers will slowly wane heading toward the middle of the week. Exactly how long it takes for this to occur is the question. There are still some timing differences amongst model guidance, however the overall consensus trends toward the surface boundary eventually getting shoved south of the area as Canadian high pressure tries to build across the region. Depending on when this process takes place will determine when we finally start to dry things out a bit around here

Surprised no pops for Monday.. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 62. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 49.

This frontal boundary will remain nearly stationary east of Lake Ontario Saturday Night, with increasing chances for rain showers. Additionally a shortwave from the west will bring chances for rain showers towards WNY later Saturday Night. Instability will be minimal, and will not include any thunder within the forecast. The increased cloud cover for Saturday Night will promote temperatures several degrees warmer than Friday Night, with overnight lows Saturday Night in the lower 50s well inland, to around 60 near the lakeshore. Model consensus diverges heading into the first part of the new week. GFS continues with the dry weather owed to high pressure remaining in control. The Canadian shows ridging building back in from the north, pushing the boundary back to the south of the area, drying things out for the most part. Meanwhile the Euro stalls the boundary over our region keeping showers in the forecast right through the end of the period. With all of this in mind, SChc PoPs will be in place across the majority of the area due the degree of uncertainty amongst model guidance, with the feeling that better chances will exist across the western Southern Tier and lesser chances east of Lake Ontario at this time. Daytime highs will average in the 60s each day, while overnight lows average from the mid 40s to mid 50s across the region.

CPC is always warm lol They had this week warm as well..They have the next 12 months warm, litterly lol In reality it's mostly overnights skewing the mean..NWS D6/7 has low 60s for highs and around 50 for a low.. Average is 62l42 at that time.. D7/8 GFS Afternoon vs morning

We made it down to 41.5° overnight, cloud cover late last night cost us a shot at 30s, actually temps climbed for a little overnight lol

Deli was closed two days ago at tops on a Sunday afternoon..No workers.. Retail is taking a huge hit here in pulaski..It's also Salmon season and town is packed with out of staters, not many locals wanna deal with them.. And not many people wanna work for companies that are so short handed..

Best thing about this time of year is how quick it cools off lol We were at 60 around 6pm and have already dropped into the lower 50s..Winds are out of the North which means we will probably go a little below guidance for tonight...

We have a mix here with some trees quite a bit more advanced than others.. Not even close to llast year in Copenhagen, almost exactly 1 year ago..

Yeah sizzlecuse like buffalo takes a long time to cool down lol We all had high overnight lows as it took time for the cooler air to filter in..At midnight it was still 61/62 here and we hit our low around 8am (52)°, Dewpoints briefly dropped into the 40s.. Currently 55° and sunny.. Cold front came through late last night..

SAM looks to just miss Bermuda..

Actually overnight lows are forecasted a little above average with daytime highs right around average..(start of October) Oct starts dropping each day by about 1/2°..

In other words, a normal weekend and start of next week lol To close out the end of the work week and start of the weekend, model consensus has an upper level low to wobble across the Canadian Maritimes. As the weekend progresses, a few waves of energy will pivot around the cyclonic gyre before pulling northeast early in the next upcoming work week. However, the model guidance packages continue to hold differences in timing and placement of the waves of energy. Overall, this translates to mainly dry weather Friday, before slight chances for showers enter the forecast for each day of the weekend due to the upper level energy pivoting across the area. Otherwise, cool temperatures will continue throughout the end of the work week, weekend and start of the next week. Highs Friday through Monday will range in the 60s, with lows dropping into the 40s Friday night and upper 40s to low 50s throughout the weekend.

Ggem not exactly the same but similar in concept..

Well on the GFS we have a closed low, troughiness which pulls Sam NWard..Not sure if SAM is actually responsible for the cooler than normal temps, but probably has something to do with it lol

STF NOW... The short term forecast for the eastern Lake Ontario region, including Pulaski, Watertown, and Lowville. Fairly widespread rain this morning will temporarily taper off to a few showers by midday. In the meantime though, the rain will continue to be moderately heavy at times, especially over the Tug Hill where an inch of rain has already fallen through 10:30 AM. While the afternoon will then be mainly rainfree, another front will bring additional showers to the region late today and tonight.

Some pretty good rain shower activity this morning, picked up about 1/3" overnight..

We picked up 0.17" of rain overnight from the front.. Another beautiful day on tap.. Feels good to have the windows open.. All week is looking pleasant.. Monday Showers likely, mainly between 7am and 11am. Cloudy, with a high near 68. South wind 7 to 11 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Monday Night A chance of showers, mainly before 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 52. West wind 5 to 9 mph becoming north after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 63. North wind 6 to 10 mph. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 63. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 44. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 62. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. Saturday A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 63. Chance of precipitation is ..

EPO and NAO both positive? Cancel winter lol

This is only a composite for January.. Seems like Negative EPO/NAO, positive AO is the way to go lol -AO works as well..

Lows on Tuesday and Wednesday night could drop into the 30s across some of coolest interior valley locations.

Showers ahead of a cold front will move into WNY today, but these will hold off until late in the day. There will be plenty of time for outdoor activities before the showers reach far WNY mid-afternoon and Rochester around sunset. Warmer with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.