wolfie09

Severe thunderstorms are possible later Sunday into Sunday night. Cold front tied to sharp shortwave trough crossing Quebec settles across Lake Ontario and North Country through Sunday afternoon before dropping to NY/PA border by daybreak Monday. Elevated instability upstream over central Great Lakes and and lingering low- level jet could support a few showers or thunderstorms in the morning western NY to the North Country. After this activity, soundings south of the front still looked capped above H85, so not sure extent of convection in the afternoon even during peak heating. Best chances will be closer to the approaching front, Lake Ontario to the North Country. Ample shear and sufficient instability to support stronger storm in these areas. Breezy and more humid day with highs upper 70s to lower 80s. Signal remains that stronger shortwave trough approaches lower Great Lakes late Sunday into Sunday evening. Capping still there ahead of this, but very strong effective shear 40-50 kts and MLCAPES up to 500J/kg south of front may result in some strong thunderstorms crossing region especially Sunday evening. Exact latitude of the primary track of storms Sunday night still in question, but would think somewhere closer to front but also toward gradient of highest instability. Right now that zone would center from WNY to the Finger Lakes. Low-level shear over 20 kts and PWATS over 1.75 inches point to gusty winds and heavy rain as primary hazards from the storms. SPC has placed our area in marginal risk for severe. Most areas stay a couple degrees within 60 for low temperatures

Nice little treat after our first batch of LER of the"cool" season..

Surprised to see a STF just for some showers lol It got dark out real quick though.. The short term forecast for the eastern Lake Ontario region, including Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville. While the vast majority of time through early evening will feature partly cloudy skies...a couple of brief passing showers will be possible through 7 PM. Temperatures during this time period will generally be in the upper 60s.

There are then hints of a building western Atlantic ridge possibly impacting our weather late in the week. A warm front will work from southwest to northeast through our area on Tuesday. Appears the greatest chances for showers and some thunder will occur along and east of the warm front, which will place the best chances for precipitation across areas just south of Lake Ontario, the Finger Lakes and points east. With our region solidly in the warm sector by afternoon (especially areas from the Finger Lakes westward), there will be a more summer-like feel to the air with much of the lower terrain south of Lake Ontario topping off in the lower to even possibly some mid 80s. North Country doesn`t really get solidly into the warm sector til late in the day. This combined possible chances for lingering precip, highs will remain in the 70s. Majority of guidance in agreement with southern fringe of primary upper level trough and associated cold front impacting the Northeast Wednesday (possibly lingering through the end of the week...read on for details). Latest guidance package has the ECMWF/Canadian going back more with the idea of the northwestern periphery of a strengthening western Atlantic ridge building northwest either into or just south of our region. Meanwhile the GFS is a bit further south with the track of the upper level trough and hence keeps the western Atlantic ridge further to the south. These two different scenarios lend to large differences in the outcome of our sensible weather. The one thing that does appear that will happen is a good bet there will be some showers and possibly some storms during this timeframe. Otherwise, the ECMWF/Canadian solution would offer the surface cold front either stalling over or just northwest of our forecast area, while the GFS would have the boundary pushing completely through the area. Here in the lies the dilemma for the second half of the week; if the front hangs up over our area, it will remain warmer with chances for precipitation, while if it pushes south of our region, cooler and drier weather would be in the cards.

Many people also didn't have power restored yet so it made it harder on the crews as well as the people with no power.. Luckily I had power restored in time and the snow didn't cause it to go back out..

Yeah one of my favorites lol That storm was nicknamed the "son of sandy", it was a coastal system that developed about 10 days after Sandy.. It was originally forecast to go inside the"bm" with coastal rain and inland snow, system decided to go east of the BM leaving inland with a mix and coastal regions with heavy cement lol Forecast was 38° and rain where I was living in CNJ, within an hour of precipitation it was 33° with heavy snow.. Twelve hours later we finished with a little over a foot of wet snow, a great surprise indeed lol

Thanks Yeah that was DT buffalo I posted.. Yeah kbuf itself seems to be a couple degrees warmer..

Maybe a "chance" but NWS has 0 over the next 7 days as of now for kbuf..A couple/few upper 70s that could turn into 80° .. Wednesday looks to be an early high as well..

Here's the two hottest days on the euro over the next 10.. Wednesday might not even get that hot depending on the timing of the front..

Both GFS and euro have the warmest temps on Tuesday/Wednesday out ahead of the next cold front..As of now the best chance for 80°+ , besides that most of the"real" heat stays to the south with temps in the 70s most days.. Monday into Monday night, a stationary boundary will lie along or just south of the NY/PA line. It will then surge back northward on Tuesday as a warm front in response to troughing aloft over the northern Plains and Midwest. Weak mid-level impulses move across the stationary then warm front later Monday into Tuesday, so will place SChc PoPs in for Monday afternoon across much of the region in the vicinity of the boundary, with Chc PoPs in for Tuesday afternoon as the boundary pushes back northeast through the area as warm front. Right now appears that greatest chances of showers and some thunder will occur along and east of the warm front, mainly Finger Lakes to central, north central New York. Otherwise, expect a good deal of dry time. Warm and more humid with highs above 80 for much of the area except North Country which stays east of warm sector. Majority of guidance in agreement with primary mid-upper level trough and associated cold front impacting the Northeast and Mid Atlantic states Wednesday into Thursday. This time around GFS is slower with the front though. Run-to-run consistency not the greatest so not sure how much stock to put in that idea. Overall forecast has the greatest chances for showers and some thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon as the front crosses and combines with peak heating. However, signal is there that could see convection as early as Tuesday night after midnight. Chances for showers gradually wane into Thursday as the primary trough axis and sfc front shift east of western and north central NY and high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. Even behind the cold front though, it is looking more likely temps will remain above normal in the mid to upper 70s. Only the GFS, which again has pretty poor run-to-run continuity, is showing something cooler than that.

The 1804 New England hurricane (also known as the Storm of October 1804) was the first tropical cyclone in recorded history known to produce snowfall, with Hurricane Ginny in 1963, Hurricane Sandy in 2012, and Hurricane Zeta in 2020 being the next such systems to do so. An unusual late-season storm in 1804, it yielded vast amounts of snow, rain, and powerful winds across the northeastern United States. Prior to its approach towards the East Coast of the United States, it passed through the Caribbean Sea on 4 October, and later emerged near Georgetown, South Carolina. By early on 9 October, a trough near the Virginia Capes turned the disturbance toward New England. Soon thereafter, the hurricane's abundant moisture clashed with an influx of cold Canadian air, leading to the deepening of the resulting pressure gradient and provoking inland intensification. While situated over Massachusetts, it attained its peak intensity of 110 mph (175 km/h), undergoing an extratropical transition. Even as it drifted towards the Canadian maritimes, consequently gradually weakening, precipitation persisted for another two days before the snowstorm finally subsided on 11 October. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/1804_New_England_hurricane

More of a quasi-zonal flow will dominate across the CONUS through the long term period, with a series of progressive weak troughs and ridges, of which the timing of these features will be key to what our weather will be. Starting off Sunday, a weak cold front will sag south across the region, while the better mid and upper level dynamics will move across Quebec and northern NY. With weak forcing and marginal moisture availability will have just the SChc for a couple of showers for areas east of Lake Ontario closer to the better dynamics. Otherwise would expect a lot of dry time. This boundary then becomes stationary somewhere across southern NY/northern PA for Sunday night and Monday, before moving back northeast through the area as a warm front sometime Monday night or Tuesday. Several ill-timed weak mid level impulses will traverse the region atop the stalled boundary during this time. With this in mind, will go with SChc/low-end Chc PoPs for a few showers from time to time, with the thinking there will be a good deal of dry time as well. Discrepancies amongst the global models have lessened toward the end of the period, with the 08/12Z suite now advertising fairly good agreement that the next cold front will arrive across the lower Great Lakes toward the mid week timeframe bringing a renewed chance for some better organized precipitation. Otherwise, temperatures will be near to a bit above normal through the period.

Euro backed off it's crazy anomalies from 0z, still warmer than average but+15 is mainly to the south..(D7-10) As it stands now.. Strictly looking at daytime lol

Latest CPC probabilities

Line has become more potent as expected..Old lady driving up from jersey stuck in it lol

CF on the door step.. Showers are slowly pushing east, 0.90" on the day, currently 65°..

Absolute monsoon right now..Rates over 2" per hour, nearing 3/4" on the day..

Not much difference D7 lol

Pretty slow moving CF..We have 0.14" on the day so far, more moderate/heavy showers moving in from the SW..You can tell by the anomalies that the front is just clearing kbuf CWA as of 18z(euro)..We won't see the convection that areas east do but we also won't see the heat lol

NWS isn't necessarily wrong lol Everything is streaming NE over top of Kbuf and looks to possibly cross over Ontario later this evening.. It does look a little bit stronger than what guidance shows at the moment..So we'll see lol Diminished SB CAPE and lapse rates will have this convection continue to weaken as it moves across Lake Ontario, clipping the southern shoreline. Thunderstorms will still be possible through the evening, especially over the warmer waters of Lake Ontario.

The timing of convection is just late enough that diurnal instability will develop across Central NY by early afternoon just ahead of the line. This should allow for strengthening storms during the early to mid afternoon on the eastern edge of our CWA and then heading east from there. Some of these storms may contain gusty winds and brief downpours. Strong deep layer shear and linear forcing may support an isolated damaging wind risk with any short line segments that develop.

Wednesday night, colder air will continue to advect into the region (H850T falling to +7C/+9C) and with synoptic moisture wrapping back in under westerly flow there will be the potential for lake effect rain showers off both lakes overnight. Infact, there even could be some rumbles of thunder as BUFKIT sounding profiles show lake induced CAPE values of +2K J/KG and equilibrium levels surpassing 30k feet. Thursday, a passing shortwave still appears like it will disrupt the lake response during the day which will result in general scattered showers across the region. Thursday night boundary layer flow becomes northwest, directing lake effect rain showers southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario overnight.

Nice line of storms tomorrow morning-early afternoon on the 3k..

Today is probably one of the warmer days of the week, forecast right around 75°, tonight will be a warm night with forecast lows in the mid 60s.. Tomorrow we should see some clouds and showers as another CF approaches... While the highs (upper 60s, low70s) over the next few days are slightly below average, the lows (low-mid50s) are slightly above average for this time of year Imby..So it should average out to be an average"ish" like week lol