wolfie09

August temps have been well above normal for Buffalo & Watertown, both ranking in the top 5 for warmest August on record. Watertown is also well above normal for rain for the month making it the 4th wettest August on record. Rochester has been closer to normal for temps & rain.

Snow Days Ahead According to the Farmers’ Almanac’s time-tested weather formula, there will be snow, but probably not as much as a snow-sport enthusiasts might dream of. On average, we’ll see near-normal amounts of the white stuff from coast to coast. However, there will be notable month-to-month variations. Winter’s chill will start gradually. In January, temperatures will start out mild for much of the country but will trend toward colder conditions during the middle to latter part of the month. But overall, the month will be stormy, especially along the Atlantic Seaboard where an active storm track will lead to a stretch of precipitation in various forms: rain, snow, sleet, and ice.The Great Lakes, Midwest, and Ohio Valley will have more than their fair share of cold and flaky weather in January. The Northern Plains and Rockies will also experience Old Man Winter’s wrath with stormy weather culminating to a possible blizzard later in the month. In sharp contrast, February will average out to be a much quieter month in terms of storminess across much of the nation. In the eastern-third of the country, for example, we calculate that on average there will be 57% fewer days of measurable precipitation compared to January, a significant drop-off. But that doesn’t necessarily mean that storminess will be completely absent. We’re forecasting a “winter whopper” for parts of the Northeast and Ohio Valley toward the end of February. Another “atmospheric hemorrhage” from the Pacific could lash most of the far West, with everything from strong winds to heavy rains and snow. March will see close to normal precipitation nationwide. But in a sense, March will be a microcosm of the entire winter. From start to finish, the month will be full of stretches of uneventful weather, but when it turns stormy, the precipitation will come in big doses. For the East and Midwest, for example, a late winter storm will blow in at mid-month followed by a nor’easter along the East Coast toward month’s end.

Sizzle Sizzle lol Up to 82° here.. Sizzlecuse forecast 90° on Wed, so I lied when I said no more 90s haha

Monday, showers and thunderstorms possible, with the greatest potential expected across the eastern portions of the area. The daytime heating and a tropical airmass will provide for at least the chance of showers and storms. The track of Hurricane Henri will be monitored closely as the western edge of the storm may approach the North Country during the day on Monday, but most guidance doesn`t push the system that far west. The plume of moisture associated with the storm will push into the far eastern parts of the forecast area, helping to fuel some of the showers and storms that are expected. If Hurricane Henri does end up tracking east a bit quicker on Monday, then that will be in response to the upper level trough moving east more quickly as the storm gets phased into the upper level pattern. This would result in lower chances for showers and storms on Monday with the tropical moisture and upper level support tracking away from the area.

Sunday night tropical system Henri will slowly meander its way north-northwestward along the New York-southern New England border... while becoming increasingly absorbed by the deep-layer closed low over the mid-Atlantic states. On this track the heavy rains directly associated with Henri will remain safely confined to our southeast... though the larger-scale trough and tropical airmass across our region will still lead to the potential for some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across eastern/southeastern portions of the area. On Monday the closed low will open up a bit and slowly lift north- northeastward across western New England. In doing so...this will keep Henri and any of its direct impacts again confined well to our east...though daytime heating of our warm and soupy airmass should again lead to the development of some diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms across our area. The potential for these will be highest across the North Country and interior portions of the Finger Lakes where support from the larger-scale trough and diurnal instability will respectively be the greatest...with chances notably lowering with increasing westward extent across the balance of the area... particularly across the Niagara Frontier where the bulk of the day looks to be dry. At this point the bulk of the activity still looks to be scattered in nature...though a brief period of more numerous showers/storms cannot be ruled out across the North Country/interior Finger Lakes. With the tropical airmass that will be in place...the main issue with any slow-moving storms would be locally heavy rainfall.

Convection popping up here and there..Had a brief downpour, not much in the gauge.. Another smallish cell heading this way..

While the bulk of Henri looks to miss us to the east, we do have the potential for daily thunderstorms in this tropical air mass, starting today..Where they pop up is anyone's guess lol As the upper level system interacts with tropical system Henri, this will bring progressively more moisture with precipitable water values increasing to almost 2 inches. This combined with diurnal instability will support generally scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening. Moist airmass supports the potential for locally heavy rainfall, with mesoscale guidance suggesting the greatest risk for heavy rain across the eastern Lake Ontario region. Otherwise, temperatures will remain above normal with highs in the lower to mid 80s today.

3k through HR60 FWIW..

NHC new update is west as expected..

Euro ensembles.. Many would be problematic wrt rainfall..

Surface temperatures not bad today, hit 82° with sun(1:20PM) and now currently upper 70s with clouds, dew points on the other hand suck.. lol Low-mid 70s all day..

Hurricane model takes a sandy like track just farther north, would be problematic for the jersey coastline verbatim.. Granted not nearly as strong as Sandy..I'm pretty sure Sandy reshaped parts of the immediate jersey shore..

Western Atlantic ridging has been an issue all Summer..Not really anywhere to escape verbatim.. Actually GGEM does a loop over the northern MA lol

Ukmet sure tries to get us involved lol PT of course..

A closed upper level low across the mid-Atlantic states on Saturday will interact with tropical system Henri over the weekend. Henri will not directly impact our region with its center tracking well to our east, but the weak mid-level flow may gradually funnel its tropical moisture across our region. Any showers and thunderstorms would mainly be during the afternoon and early evening hours, during peak diurnal heating and instability. Coverage should not be too widespread, but it`s possible a few slow moving storms could produce locally heavy rainfall. The greatest coverage will be east of the Genesee Valley, with lower chances across far Western New York which will be further from the moisture source.

At the moment the area should be fine.. GFS brings it into interior SNE but it's extremely compact..NHC has 40%-50% chance of tropical storm winds into portions of ENY.

Hi Rez guidance brings Henri anywhere from CNJ through E LI..

3k right into W LI/NYC metro region..

3 day total here is 3.49"(1.25" from TD Fred)

Health department plans to spray after deadly virus is found in Oswego County mosquitoes.. The New York State Department of Health also tested the mosquito samples and declared an “imminent threat to public health” in Oswego County. This designation by the state is one of the first steps in getting approval to conduct aerial spraying in targeted areas, Oswego County Public Health Director Jiancheng Huang said. The spraying is a temporary and partial measure to control the spread of the EEE virus, Huang said. The date and time of spraying will be announced as soon as plans are finalized to ensure that the public has ample opportunity to prepare, he said. EEE is an extremely rare, and often fatal infection that causes encephalitis or inflammation of the brain, health officials said. Both humans and horses are at risk of getting EEE through the bite of infected mosquitoes. There have been eight reported human EEE deaths in Onondaga and Oswego counties since 1971. https://www.syracuse.com/health/2021/08/health-department-plans-to-spray-after-deadly-virus-is-found-in-oswego-county-mosquitoes.html?outputType=amp

Gearing up for wintertime I see. .

It's been light steady rain here all day for a grand total of 0.40..Some of the heavier precipitation rates trying to make it's way north..