wolfie09

New update, raised the probabilities of cooler than normal, slightly..

Current radars..

Haha.. Yeah 18z went farther east.. Who knows where any of these heavier bands set up lol Radar is our best guidance.. Hrrr and 3k fwiw..

Our already moisture rich airmass (PWAT of 1.98 inches this morning at BUF now up to 2.05 inches on 18z sounding) will become even more saturated into tonight (likely at least 2.25 inches) as the remnants of once tropical storm Fred move from southwest-central PA toward Finger Lakes and over eastern NY. Widespread light to moderate rain ongoing early this afternoon will become more moderate to heavy late afternoon through early overnight hours, before diminishing late tonight. Though the circulation of post tropical cyclone Fred will just graze our area from western Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes, pockets of heavier rain could occur farther northwest into more of WNY and the lower Genesee valley as general mid-level troughing slides across the area and interacts with the anomalously high PWATs. Though majority of especially high res models were WAY overdone with QPF for initial leading rain showers into our area this morning, 12z versions are doing better now and show this potential in the 21z-06z time frame as does recent runs of RAP/HRRR. A warm and humid night otherwise with some fog especially over the higher terrain. Showers will taper Thursday morning over WNY and by midday toward eastern Lake Ontario region to Finger Lakes and central NY as post tropical cyclone Fred moves across southeast NY, to north of NYC area. Pockets of heavy rain could still impact eastern Lake Ontario in the morning, but overall heaviest rain will be exiting east of our forecast area. Still a warm and humid airmass so cannot count out some showers or a thunderstorms during peak heating of the day. However, we will be on the subsident side of the departing system. With more sunshine expected, highs will bounce back into the upper 70s and lower 80s for Niagara Frontier while readings will be in the mid 70s to near 80 other areas.

You can see euro has adjusted west..

NHC keeps it mainly off shore..

GFS wants to threaten the coastline with Henri..

Hopefully that puts an end to the 90s.. We have had one 90° day in the past 4 Septembers(Early in the month), so while it's possible it's also unlikely..

Elevated Flash Flood Potential through Tonight... Our already moisture rich airmass (PWAT of 1.98 this morning at BUF) will become even more saturated rest of today as the remnants of once tropical storm Fred will move across our forecast area. One way to recognize is this is by looking at precipitable water values. PWAT values that have flirted around the 2 inch mark for the past couple days will climb to about 2.25" and that will set the stage for rains that could be tropical in nature. All that will be needed will be for some forcing to realize the potential for this airmass. Thus far, widespread light to moderate rain is over all the area. Heaviest showers embedded in this rain have produced hourly amounts mainly 0.25 inch or less, so manageable to this point. As the core of the tropical remnants push north across the Upper Ohio valley, a shortwave ahead of it will make its way across the western counties of New York. This will support a burgeoning area of moderately heavy showers and possibly a thunderstorm by early afternoon. The real issue could be later in the afternoon though as the aforementioned core moves across, or JUST east, of our forecast area. This is when warm rain processes within a deep area of lift will generate a shield of moderate to occasionally heavy rain, and possibly a few thunderstorms. Any convection will be slow moving, so there will be a very real risk for flash flooding within a very efficient rain making environment. One to two inches of rain should not be uncommon across parts of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes by this evening, and as the remnants push northeast tonight, so too will the area of heaviest rain. No changes to flash flood watch for areas generally southeast of a line from the Tug Hill to KROC to KJHW. This is not to say that the remainder of the region will not receive any heavy rain...but just that this is the area most prone to experiencing flash flooding due to the track of the system.

I already have more rain than the 0z euro had for here.. Models are struggling.. Euro has a SW-NE trajectory but as of now TD Fred looks to be moving more or less due north...

Nam brings in some very heavy rain overnight..

0.22" overnight, 2.5" storm total so far.. TD Fred moving at a snails pace..

Excessive rainfall for Fred..

Nam pretty much dry slots us tomorrow, not that we need the rain..(Imby)

Moisture slowly moving out of the area, right around 2.30" on the day, still raining albeit lightly..

Rates nearing 3" per hour, nearing an additional inch so far this afternoon..

Flood watch issued.. Flood Watch National Weather Service Buffalo NY 259 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 NYZ004>006-008-013-014-020-021-180300- /O.NEW.KBUF.FF.A.0003.210818T1200Z-210819T1200Z/ /00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/ Wayne-Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Lewis-Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus- Allegany- Including the cities of Geneseo, Oswego, Olean, Newark, Lowville, Wellsville, Fair Haven, and Canandaigua 259 PM EDT Tue Aug 17 2021 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING... The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Flash Flood Watch for portions of central and western New York, including the following counties, in central New York, Lewis, Northern Cayuga and Oswego. In western New York, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Livingston, Ontario and Wayne. * From Wednesday morning through Thursday morning. * Widespread heavy rain of 1 to 3 inches with localized amounts of 4 inches is expected as the remnants of Tropical Storm Fred impact the Southern Tier to the Finger Lakes and into the North Country Wednesday through Wednesday night. * Runoff from heavy rain may cause rapid rises on creeks and streams, leading to flash flooding. The heavy rain may also result in flooding of poor drainage areas and low-lying areas.

Convection finally made it here and it's pouring..

Euro makes a right turn sparring us from the worst..

A warm front remains across Lake Ontario to between SYR and RME so all but northern sections of North Country are in the warm sector. Earlier moderate to heavy rain over North Country has ended. Totals with the first round of rain since last night exceeded 1.8 inches over northern Lewis county with amounts over 1.25 from Watertown to Old Forge per NY Mesonet site. Attention is now turning to scattered showers developing in the heat/humidity of the day as convective temps were only in the mid 70s per 12z BUF sounding. PWAT on that sounding was 1.89 or almost 175 pct of normal. Shear is weak today less than 25 kts, but that also means individual cells are not moving very fast. Given the slow storm motion, warm cloud processes dominating, and small MBE vectors in forecast soundings, all storms could produce heavy downpours and there could be training storms as well. Thus far, limited instability and weak shear is not allowing for strong convective activity, though it is early in the afternoon still. Signal still there in recent high res guidance and HREF for swath of heavier rain to develop southeast of Lake Ontario into Oswego and Lewis county. As of now though, latest indications are that this may end up missing area in northern Lewis that saw the heaviest rain last night and fall over areas that saw under an inch of rain last night. So, will hold off on issuing a watch for the convection this afternoon and early evening. Lack of synoptic forcing and removal of daytime heating will allow convection to diminish in coverage later tonight. A warm and muggy day is guaranteed for Wednesday. Remnants of once TS Fred are forecast to track across central Pennsylvania to upper Genesee valley later Wednesday into Wednesday night which is a westward trend, though still trying to assess exactly how far west into our forecast area the remnants and associated heavy rain will track. Initially could see heavy downpours into Southern Tier as early as Wednesday morning before the remnants of Fred fully arrive by later afternoon. Where the remnants track on Wednesday night, widespread heavy rain will occur. Right now, best chance of that will be Allegany county to Finger Lakes eastward. Given the trends, likely will eventually need watches for part of our area due to the heavy rain from the remnants of Fred.

More convection starting to fire up.

The remnants of Fred a little stronger and a touch NW on the GFS but keeps the bulk of the heavy rain off to the the south and east.

A blame game While the Biden administration executed the US withdrawal, it was the Trump administration that brokered a deal with the Taliban to pull out US troops. The agreement, signed in February 2020, stipulated that US troops would be withdrawn from Afghanistan within 14 months. The deal was much criticized for acceding to the Taliban demand of not including the Afghan government. At the time, the Taliban already controlled nearly half the country. Biden largely upheld the Trump-era deal, though he didn't follow that exact timeline. Many observers said the US's agreement in principle to depart cost it leverage it could have used to compel the Taliban to adhere to the peace deal and a cessation of hostilities. After the negotiations, Trump began slimming down the US's presence. By mid-January, there were only about 2,500 troops in Afghanistan. To put this into perspective, there were more US troops deployed to Washington, DC, as a result of the January 6 insurrection than the number deployed in Afghanistan. An Afghan special-forces officer told The Washington Post that Trump's withdrawal deal demoralized Afghan troops and made them feel as though a Taliban takeover was inevitable. "The day the deal was signed we saw the change. Everyone was just looking out for himself," the officer said. Trump on Sunday criticized Biden over the Afghanistan withdrawal, saying that the president didn't follow the plan he crafted. But outside the original timeline, in which US troops would've fully pulled out in May, Biden hardly diverged from Trump's peace agreement. Biden in a statement on Saturday placed blame on Trump for the chaos in Afghanistan, saying that he'd inherited a deal that "left the Taliban in the strongest position militarily since 2001." From Bush to Biden, US presidents failed in Afghanistan There is ample evidence that the US withdrawal has been rushed and sloppy, particularly when it comes to helping vulnerable Afghans who assisted the US during the conflict. But the US's ultimate failure in Afghanistan cannot be laid at the feet of a single president or administration. The war in Afghanistan has been chaotic from start to finish, with US troops often unsure of their mission as multiple administrations — both Republican and Democratic — misled the public about the state of the conflict. Over the years, Americans were repeatedly told that the US was turning a corner in Afghanistan, but there was rarely evidence to back that up. The US invested $83 billion in training and equipping Afghan forces, with little to show for it. The Afghan military consistently struggled with endemic corruption and discipline issues, exhibiting few signs that it could defeat the Taliban without US assistance. Every president who has overseen this war made decisions that exacerbated the conflict in various ways. The war in Afghanistan began in October 2001 under President George W. Bush, who within the first month of the conflict rejected an offer from the Taliban to hand over Osama bin Laden in exchange for the US to stop bombing the country. In May 2003, the Bush administration declared that "major combat" was over in Afghanistan. As time would show, this was exceptionally premature. President Barack Obama drastically ramped up America's troop presence in Afghanistan in 2009 — a move that Biden opposed as vice president. In 2014, Obama shared a timeline to bring US troops home by 2016. He declared an end to the US combat mission in the country in December 2014, but the war was nowhere near finished — and US troops remained in Afghanistan when Obama left office. While Trump promised to end "forever wars," he relaxed the rules of engagement for airstrikes in Afghanistan in 2017, and under his watch, civilian casualties in the country rose 330% from 2016. Biden announced the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in April. The Taliban continued to make gains across the country throughout spring and into summer, raising fears of an eventual takeover. Last month, Biden rejected the notion that it was "inevitable" the Taliban would regain power and expressed confidence in the Afghan military. Within a matter of weeks, the Taliban was back in control of Afghanistan. There's no doubt that Biden and his advisors got much wrong about what would transpire in Afghanistan, but recent events are a product of years of poor decision-making by the US. Like other empires before it, the US has learned the hard way that no amount of military might and money can fundamentally change a complex country like Afghanistan

We could see some decent rains from Fred if it takes this kind of track..