wolfie09

Because the models stink lol

Picked up another 0.30" this afternoon, short lived but pretty intense, 0.18" fell in about 4 minutes.. Station didn't pick the rate up correctly.. We have had a good 4-5 tropical down pours in the past 24hours, 1.74" for the event so far..3k has a little more action overnight not that it's trust worthy lol

Bit of convection firing back up as it's starting to pour here..

Slight added for tomorrow..

They have no idea where convection is going lol Hrw ARW and Fv3..

Guidance was decent here the last 24 hours but start to diverge for today.. Hrrr and 3k ..

Still more rain to get through the next couple days..

We picked up another 0.72" overnight/this morning, just under 1.5" since yesterday evening..

Severe thunderstorm warning issued.. Picked up around 3/4" liquid so far, frequent lightning and some loud ass thunder lol

The main forecast concern is the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms late this afternoon through early evening. Model guidance is not in good agreement with most mesoscale guidance generally more aggressive developing convection than the lower resolution guidance is today. Increasingly unstable this afternoon with ML CAPEs 1500-2000 J/Kg developing by late afternoon. There also be ample wind shear in place to support organized convection, with 700 mb winds increasing to 35-40 kts along with some directional shear this afternoon and early evening. Expect storms to start developing across Western New York this afternoon then expand in coverage, potentially developing into a line as the activity moves eastward across the area through around 9 p.m. Gusty winds would be the primary severe weather threat. There`s also a secondary threat of locally heavy rainfall and flooding today. Storms will be moving which could mitigate this risk some, but with the 12Z Buffalo sounding showing a precipitable water values of 1.84 inches locally heavy downpours are also a concern. Otherwise, today will be another hot day with heat index values rising into the 90s. Showers and storms may keep high temperatures cooler in some spots so it`s possible some areas may not quite hit the heat advisory criteria this afternoon. Even so, it will be hot and humid and at least very close to heat advisory criteria, with no changes in the headlines planned for today.

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First batch of showers moving through..

Cloud cover keeping the temps at bay for the time being, we did hit 87° earlier but back down to 83°..

WPC honing in on east of Ontario which is what the euro has been advertising the last several runs..

After that, strong storms still expected for afternoon and evening hours as shortwave on southern edge of mid-level trough currently driving storms northern IN to se MI arrives during peak heating with at least weak sfc troughing also noted moving into WNY this afternoon. Ample instability with MLCAPES 1500-2000J/kg and shear is coming up now, with at least 25-30kts, still weak, but more than it looked like a couple days ago. Low-level shear is stronger though at 30-35 kts. Risk of severe looks justified with multicell downbursts/wind damage the most likely mode. Heavy rain a hazard also with PWATS to 1.8 inches or closing in on 200 pct of normal so we remain under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall from WPC. SPC continues to keep our area in a marginal risk of severe. Some storms as well again on Wednesday with MLCAPES 2000-2500J/kg that is VERY impressive for our region. Given the instability alone, even though shear is lower, could see isolated downbursts and wind damage along with torrential downpours. Coverage of storms, at least most of Wednesday, looks a bit lower than what we we`ll see this afternoon. Coverage may increase late with approach of another shortwave trough in the quasi-zonal flow. SPC and WPC have marginal risks again for our area for severe and excessive rainfall. Attention will then turn to a weakening boundary that will approach the eastern Great Lakes during the afternoon and evening. While 0- 6km shear is unimpressive at 25-30 knots, forecast BUFKIT CAPE values are rather healthy and north of 2K J/KG. Furthermore, the environment is moisture laden with PW values around 2.0 inches. Taking all this into account, showers and thunderstorms will likely increase in coverage as the boundary approaches and then moves into the region. Any stronger storms will likely have the potential to produce torrential downpours and gusty winds. WPC has our region in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall. Also, SPC has the area in a Marginal Risk for SVR storms. The main threat being damaging wind gusts. This is highlighted in the HWO. Friday, another round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible as a stronger front approaches and then moves through the area at some point Friday night. Although, there is some timing issues with the frontal passage. With that said, once the front moves through it will then likely bring about some much needed relief from the heat and lower humidity levels.

Damn that's crazy lol It's hot here but not that hot, 78.6°.. Dewpoints suck but I'll make it lol

3k has some stronger storms moving through tomorrow evening as well..

Potential exist for really heavy rain although the rgem is most likely overboard..

Rgem with some decent convection tomorrow and again on Friday..

We hit 89 sizzle degrees but clouds have knocked us back a few.. The end is near dear lol 5 Weeks from upper 60s on average..

Main change to forecast was SPC adding parts of the region into marginal risk for severe on Tuesday. Hot and humid conditions will prevail with the likelihood for more Heat Advisories. Tuesday into Tuesday evening, shortwave trough crossing Southern Ontario trends sharper and farther south pushing weak sfc trough over our area. 0-6km shear still on weaker side less than 25 kts, but stronger system allows for a bit stronger LLJ. Also, hint of additional convective induced shortwave crossing in the afternoon to south of the main trough. This forcing will be impinging on a very unstable and moisture laden airmass with MLCAPES upwards of 1500j/kg and PWATS over 1.80 inches (+2-3 SD). Severe chances trending upward and at the least stronger storms will be capable of torrential downpours and isolated flooding if multiple storms track over same area. Convection will shift to mainly North Country Tuesday night on southern edge of shortwave tracking across southern Quebec. In terms of heat, convection will hold down high temps and resulting heat index over far western NY though higher dewpoints in the lower 70s may offset this impact somewhat. Still does appear the best chance of reaching heat index of 95+ on Tuesday will be Genesee valley east to southern Oswego and also over Jefferson county toward St. Lawrence River. Lows on Tuesday night will only provide limited relief with lows in the lower 70s in these areas. On to Wednesday where it will be more about the heat versus the storms. H85 temps toward +20c support highs in the lower 90s at the warmest, lake plains to northern Finger Lakes and southern Oswego county. Dewpoints at least in the lower 70s, but could be middle 70s at least in smaller areas. Stronger sw winds may keep much of Buffalo Metro out of heat index values 95+ but that will not be the case for rest of Niagara Frontier along Lake Ontario, Genesee valley and on to the east where heat index values will be pushing 100 degrees. Storms could occur especially Southern Tier to the east of Lake Ontario. Given high instability and high PWATs persisting, strong to severe wind gusts and torrential rain, localized flooding still could occur. Coverage should be quite a bit lower than what occurs on Tuesday though. Relative min in any convection on Wednesday night. Another uncomfortable night for sleeping with mainly upper 60s to lower 70s, though only dropping to mid 70s on the lake plains.

Stubborn cloud cover keeping us somewhat cooler with a current temperature of 79.5° and a real feel of 81°..I'm sure these will burn off eventually and warm more towards mid afternoon..

Decent agreement on some heavy showers and storms during the tue/wed timeframe, at the very least it will knock surface temps down hehe

Weather looks to become more active.. A few thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening and again on Wednesday afternoon and evening could become severe with damaging winds and torrential rain the primary hazards. Additional strong to severe thunderstorms could occur Thursday and Friday ahead of a strong cold front