wolfie09

Temperatures are forecast to be near normal through the end of the month, then even a bit below normal for the first part of August. Precipitation is expected to be at or just below normal during the same period, which is some good news after all of the rain our area has received during the month of July up to this point.

Yeah the NFL doesn't require vaccinations but they pretty much do lol No player wants to be responsible of other players losing checks and games, puts pressure on the other 25% to get vaccinated..

What about this? I thought children were safe from COVID-19? .. Children can't get vaccinated yet . A day prior to Mississippi’s state health officer announcing that 7 of the state’s children are in intensive care with COVID-19, Dr. Thomas Dobbs pointed out that almost all current cases of the coronavirus in Mississippi are the Delta variant. Dobbs said in a Tuesday morning tweet that among those 7 children were in ICU, with 2 on life support with ventilators. This comes after he warned Monday that the Delta variant is becoming an increasing problem in Mississippi.

Maxed out at 73.8° earlier this afternoon, since dropped a couple of degrees, DPs manageable in the lower 60s, little breeze and plenty of sunshine.. Forecasted min has come down a little to 53° ... A surface high centered over Lower Michigan will have its influence tonight by providing quiet clear skies and cool conditions. 850 mb temperatures lowering to 8C should be able to support some lake induced clouds southeast of the lakes (especially Lake Ontario) after midnight. Lowered temperates down a bit from continuity, mainly across Southern Tier where readings should drop into upper 40s for cooler parts of Cattaraugus and Allegany counties.

In my experience La Nina brings a more active northern stream, not necessarily terrible for us if the jet is south of us lol Obviously weaker the better..

During La Niña events, trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia, NOAA said. Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface. These cold waters in the Pacific push the jet stream northward, which affects weather patterns in the U.S. and globally. What is a La Niña winter? A typical La Niña winter in the U.S. brings cold and snow to the Northwest and unusually dry conditions to most of the southern tier of the U.S., according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center. The Southeast and Mid-Atlantic also tend to see warmer-than-average temperatures during a La Niña winter. New England and the Upper Midwest into New York tend to see colder-than-average temperatures, the Weather Channel said. Because La Niña shifts storm tracks, it often brings more snow to the Ohio and Tennessee valleys. "Typically La Niña is not a big snow year in the mid-Atlantic," said Mike Halpert, deputy director of the Climate Prediction Center. "You have a better chance up in New England." https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/8013655002

How about this for the beginning of August?

A potent shortwave and associated wing of warm advection will bring the next likelihood for widespread showers to the region Saturday night. This will be followed by another round of showers and afternoon storms on Sunday out ahead of an approaching cold (cool) front, with a few showers Sunday night as the front moves into the area. There may be a few lingering scattered showers on Monday as the surface boundary finishes pushing through the area, while another piece of weak shortwave energy aloft crosses over the region, however much of the time should remain dry. Otherwise, despite our region continuing to be under weak upper level troughing, surface high pressure should provide mainly dry weather for Monday night and Tuesday. Daytime highs will average in the upper 70s to low 80s all three days, with some lowering of humidity levels for the start of the new work week in the wake of the frontal passage.

This isn't the best set-up here, I'm to close to the coast lol Storms blow up just to my east with these west-east movers over Ontario, we seem to do much better when they go SW-NE..

Mainly done here, at least with the heavy stuff, could have some showers on and off..Main focus is now the thruway corridor, 0.63" on the day, inching closer to that double digit rain month lol

Here comes another round, nothing severe just torrential downpours..

STW issued for the southern part of the county.. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT FOR SOUTHERN OSWEGO COUNTY... At 609 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Central Square, or 11 miles northeast of Baldwinsville, moving east at 25 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Minor damage to vehicles is possible. Expect wind damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include... Fulton, Central Square, Battle Island State Park, Hastings, Volney, Constantia, West Monroe, Palermo, Phoenix and Cleveland. This includes Interstate 81 between exits 32 and 33.

Just to my east already over an inch liquid as it really blew up .

0.41" in about 10-12 minutes, little lull right now before the next batch comes through..

The rain is intense, probably already more than the Hrrr had for here lol

Pitch black out, starting to rain, little thunder..

STW issued.. The National Weather Service in Buffalo has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Jefferson County in central New York... Lewis County in central New York... Northeastern Oswego County in central New York... * Until 615 PM EDT.. * At 512 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles southwest of Fowler to 13 miles west of Stony Point, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. * Locations impacted include... Watertown, Sandy Island Beach State Park, Fort Drum, Stony Point, Carthage, Lowville, Pulaski, West Carthage, Adams and Dexter. This includes Interstate 81 between exits 34 and 48.

Starting to see some clusters form..

SUMMARY...An organized cluster of thunderstorms will spread across the St. Lawrence River through much of the Adirondacks vicinity, along with continuing development across and southeast of Lake Ontario by 5-7 PM EDT, accompanied by the risk for potentially damaging wind gusts. DISCUSSION...Moderate southeasterly low-level inflow of moist air characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg is maintaining vigorous thunderstorm development along the leading edge of an east-southeastward advancing, convectively driven surface cold pool. This continues to be aided by large-scale forcing for ascent associated with a 30-50 kt westerly mid/upper jet streak, and will overspread the upper St. Lawrence Valley through much of the Adirondacks region by 22-23Z. As the temperature gradient across the gust front increases at least a bit further, potential for damaging wind gusts probably will also continue to increase during the next hour or two. Farther to the southwest, thunderstorms which initiated along the trailing outflow boundary, and preceding lake breezes across the Lake Ontario vicinity, may also begin to consolidate while spreading into the unstable environment to the southeast of the lake. This too may gradually pose increasing risk for damaging wind gusts near/north of the Finger Lakes region through the Mohawk Valley by early evening.

That single cell over Ontario has it's sight set on Oswego county, if it makes it this far..

A few fall like days, I dig it lol Wednesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 11am. Patchy fog before 7am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 73. North wind 6 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 57. West wind around 6 mph becoming calm in the evening. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. Light west wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Thursday Night A slight chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 57.

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Much of New York Vermont Lake Erie Lake Ontario * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 305 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...A well-organized line of thunderstorms is moving across southeast Ontario, and will affect the watch area this afternoon and evening. Other more isolated storms will also form ahead of the line, posing additional severe threat. Damaging winds are the main risk, but hail is also possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 130 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles north of Saranac Lake NY to 35 miles south southeast of Syracuse NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).