wolfie09

Colorful fall foliage emerging throughout Adirondacks, Catskills and Thousand Islands-Seaway regions. Foliage change is accelerating in the Thousand Islands – Seaway region. In Oswego County, expect 15% leaf change this weekend, with some fall colors of red and orange emerging. St. Lawrence County foliage spotters in Louisville predict up to 15% color change, with shades of red and yellow beginning to appear. Jefferson County foliage spotters reporting from the Thousand Islands Bridge on Wellesley Island predict up to 10% color change this weekend, with yellow leaves and touches of red leaves making their debut. Read the rest here

Well it looks like the rumors were true lol Took a ride up north to the us/Canadian border and once you get on Native American land it's dispensary after dispensary (no card needed).. Beautiful ride as well..It's about 70miles ESE of Ottawa..I'm sure this won't be my last venture lol

Some convection has developed, E-NE of Ontario.. Rainfall starting to pick up somewhat..

WF is through most of the kbuf CWA(as of 18z), CF trekking through MI..

Warm front slowly pushing north..I noticed kbuf, Kroc already reporting S/SW winds, ksyr-kart E/NE as of last update..

By late afternoon, attention will be on incoming upper level trough and associated cold front to south of low pressure which by this time will be tracking northeast of Lake Superior. Associated showers and thunderstorms with the front will be encroaching on the western Niagara Frontier by 00z. Really like the look of the 00z NSSL- WRF which is spot on right now with mode, location of convection upstream albeit maybe an hour or two too slow. Following this idea, expect thunderstorms to roll across western NY and western Lake Ontario this evening before settling south toward Southern Tier and east toward North Country late evening or early overnight. Convection should hold together initially before diminishing some after midnight. Though slight risk from SPC is upstream and our area is within a marginal risk for severe, there is potential for at least gusty winds to 50 mph and heavy downpours as the thunderstorms first move into the region as effective shear and low-level shear are sufficient (boosted by LLJ of 45-50 kts) as are MLCAPES of at least 500J/kg if not toward 1000J/kg. Added enhanced wording for gusty winds and heavy rain into forecast over WNY. With supporting low well to the north and front becoming parallel to upper flow, front looks to only slowly make it to Genesee valley and Finger Lakes by late tonight. Potential another wave currently over NE/western IA lifts along this front so main issue late tonight would be pockets of heavier rain

It's coming hehe

I've been watching the LR GFS for a potential trough to move in, last week of September.. lol How long said trough would last is another story lol If it happens at all..

Solid looking line on the hrdps..

Yesterday we only received 0.12" of liquid as it was more of a "stalled/slow" moving boundary, it came through here to early lol Wednesday looks to be more of your typical slow moving front with precipitation streaming from the SW.. Much better set up locally.. Global consensus (as of now) is 1"-2" with the euro being the wettest..

We may luck out on Wednesday for the fans of "cooler" weather.. Thanks to the timing of the next front..The heat will be pushing east, out ahead of the front, at least for Wednesday lol

Yeah typical giants lol Now they have a short week and face Wash before heading to NO, things can get ugly real quick if they don't play better.. If they have another disastrous year you can say goodbye to Jones lol Doubt they give him that 5th year.. On a positive note the bears got beat up pretty good, more losses the better lol

Frontal boundary does look to remain south of the area rest of today, but it will start to work back north as a warm front beginning late this afternoon. Convection over western Great Lakes just getting going, but is forecast to expand toward lower Great Lakes late today into tonight. Latest guidance would suggest maybe an arrival to convection as early as very late this afternoon. Stronger convection not out of question again tonight WNY to Finger Lakes along the slowly moving northward warm front. Ample shear over 40 kts and strong instability with 0-1km MUCAPES over 1000J/kg along and south of warm front from central Great Lakes to lower Great Lakes support marginal to slight risk of severe as highlighted by SPC. Damaging winds and large hail would be main hazards along and north of the warm front.

Front is through as I figured..Winds out of the NW, DPs dropping into the upper 50s/low 60s..Temps in the lower 60s.. Latest from kbuf.. Surface cold front dropping south into the area has reaching just south of Lake Ontario this afternoon. Associated band of scattered showers and isolated embedded slowly easing south, but mainly confined to areas near Lake Ontario northward. Late this afternoon into early this evening our attention will continue to focus upstream over the central Great Lakes. Nearly all the hi-res guidance suggesting a convectively induced shortwave will track into western New York this evening along the cold front which will be crawling southward through the area. An area of organized convection is expected to develop across lower Michigan late this afternoon and early this evening then track quickly into western New York along expected instability gradient along and south of the frontal boundary. Bulk shear value of 50-60 knots across the area will bring a threat for damaging winds with perhaps some isolated large hail as this area of convection races east across the area in the general 8 pm to midnight time frame. Though the convection will be moving quickly there will be a risk for locally heavy rainfall with any localized flooding tied to any training cells that may evolve.

Surface analysis as of 15z(waiting on update) ..I would imagine front is though eastern lake Ontario..We had a high of 73°, currently down to 63° with light drizzle..

No it hasn't or wasn't meant to be..I created it..It was only COVID-19.. People started bashing trump(mainly on the handling of COVID-19), myself included, you wrote a post claiming the thread was "unreadable" because of all the political post..A mod came in here multiple times telling members politics don't belong in this thread.. Most of us have toned it down..

People need to practice what they preach lol Last year someone bitched and moaned they couldn't come on this thread because of all the politics but this year that's what every post is about lol I guess when it fits peoples agenda Btw politics are not allowed on this board, we have thread for that.. TBH not sure why this thread even exist anymore lol "General discussion" has always been handled on the weather boards, we have a small group..If nobody wants to hear about covid (understandably), which this thread was created for, then maybe it should be deleted lol We are now over 200 pages, 6k post?

Nice potential soaking overnight.. Models have trended a little north of the NWS/WPC thinking.. There is still uncertainty with regard to latitude of track of complex. Initially was banking on something away from GFS idea, instead mainly along and south of the Thruway between Buffalo and Syracuse near the cold front but also on northern gradient of highest MLCAPES. However, most of the 06z models have trended farther north though recent HRRR still is a bit farther to the south toward higher instability. Since the upstream convection driving this shortwave has not developed yet, looks to be more of a nowcasting situation this afternoon. SPC continues the slight risk for severe. After convection this evening, probably will be some subsidence and thus lower pops. Some hints of another shortwave approaching western NY toward daybreak Monday, so will have slight chances coming back in pretty late. Temps not as warm as tonight, but most spots will be close to 60. May see fog form form the earlier rain, especially if there is partial clearing.

Yeah and we have beared the brunt of it lol At least in June/august, eastern great lakes..

Surface cold front now pushing into upper Michigan will slide southeast toward the area tonight. Strong low level jet of 40 to 50 knots will move across the region ahead of the front maintaining at least some of the gusty conditions. Band of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms ahead of the front will begin to move into the Saint Lawrence Valley, Lake Ontario and the North Country after midnight. The cold front will settle southeast into the area and stall generally west- ast across New York State Sunday. This boundary will set the stage for possible severe thunderstorms starting as early as late Sunday afternoon. Early in the day, some elevated instability along with the presence of a strong low level jet could lead to some scattered showers and possible isolated thunderstorms. Later Sunday afternoon, favorable shear profiles and sufficient will support the potenial for strong to severe thunderstorms especially closer to the frontal boundary. Sunday will be a breezy and more humid day with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. Severe storm threat continues moving into early Sunday night as main forcing from the shortwave spreads eastward and rides along the frontal boundary. Weak capping still in place ahead of this feature, but enhanced westerlies aloft with strong unidirectional shear 40-50 kts and MUCAPES up to 1000J/kg south of front may give the continued organization needed to bring a round of moderate to strong storms across the area. Current thinking is the highest chances will be along and south of the I-90 corridor where SPC has placed the area under a Slight Risk of severe weather, with a Marginal Risk northward into Lake Ontario. Low-level shear over 20 kts and PWATS over 1.75 inches point to gusty winds and heavy rain as primary hazards from the storms. Due to uncertainty in the convective evolution of the potential system, will cap PoPs just shy of categorical for the first half of Sunday night. Otherwise, most areas will settle a few degrees on either side of 60 for overnight lows.

We could see some decent shower activity Sunday into Monday.. Exact placement YTD...