wolfie09

Euro skirts the coast..Still way out there though..

Hurricane Sam expected to reach M status.. Bermuda may need to watch out for this one.. Gfs curves SAM around some atlantic HP sparring the east coast, Canadian blocks Sam right into New England and upstate NY..Lol Obviously at a weakened State..

In the wake of the cold front, renewed cold air advection will result in another round of lake-effect showers east of both lakes rest of Saturday night. Unlike the regime we have been in since last night, it is colder in the mid-levels with this upper low later this weekend. Result is higher lake equilibrium levels of 25-30 kft and sufficient lake induced CAPE for possible thunder with the lake effect. Lows Saturday night will be in the 40s again for the Southern Tier and around 50 to the lower 50s on the lake plains. In the wake of a cold front from the evening/night prior, cooler air will spill across the region from the northwest (temperatures at 850mb dropping to single digits Celsius). Meanwhile aloft, the trough responsible for the cold frontal passage will have its negatively tilted trough axis across the region Sunday. This axis will then sweep across the lower Great Lakes and into New England through the end of the weekend and the start of the work week, causing the winds to shift from southwesterly to northwesterly. Residual moisture, combined with the cool temperatures aloft will support general chances for lake and orographic enhanced rain showers across the region with the best chances lying east/southeast of both lakes from Sunday through Monday. Drier air will begin to filter across the region Monday night causing shower chances to peter out.

Lol.. Yeah, rgem is usually pretty good at Lake effect placement and the NWS sides with Canadian guidance more times than not but it's precipitation amounts tend to run to high imo...

Rgem in fine form lol Getting ready for those over exaggerated precipitation numbers come winter lol

Some decent LER east of Ontario Sunday into Monday on the euro.. In its wake...a fresh batch of cooler air will then flood across the region for the balance of the weekend as the upper level trough digs further across the Great Lakes and Northeast...which in a general sense will bring a return to cooler and at least somewhat more unsettled conditions. That being said...the exact timing and placement of any resultant synoptic and lake-effect precipitation remains far from clear given continued notable differences in the southward extent/strength/ forward speed of the upper level trough. With this in mind have generally kept PoPs from the second half of Saturday night onward confined to the chance range...with the greatest chances for these generally east to southeast of the lakes owing to the effects of both lake effect and upslope enhancement. As for temperatures... highs mostly in the lower to mid 60s on Sunday will be sandwiched in between lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s Saturday night...and the upper 40s to mid 50s Sunday night.

Rain still holding on here.. 1.00" on the day, 1.48" for the event, so far..

Cold front is through most of Kbuf CWA as of 11AM.. Pretty much going through eastern lake Ontario region/North country now..

Last batch of heavy rain moving through.. About an inch since yesterday, pouring out..

Just 0.14" so far this morning, precipitation rates starting to pick up..Still have quite a while before all this moves through..

Picked up 0.48" throughout the day Imby.. Tonight- Tomorrow night is going to be a decent soaker state wide..

The cold front should move through WNY early AM but won't be east of Ontario until tomorrow night..Talk about a slow mover lol

Looks like the NAM products missing what's falling in CNY..

Occasional light rain showers here, not expecting much during the day, only 0.05 so far..

Hi Rez Canadian

Latest graphics

Euro is pretty wet over the next couple days..

To add to my previous post.. While everyone was soaking in the 90s, pulaski spotter reported ZERO, yes ZERO 90° days lol This is what NOAA uses for our 30 year average as well..

You guys got me wondering if my station is running a little warm lol It does have a shield but wondering if it needs to be replaced..Sure enough my station running a few degrees warmer than the "official" spotter, especially on hot days and during the day.. Even during the nights there seems to be some discrepancy, 3-6° within a mile distance, at times..May need to upgrade come Christmas lol I did find it funny how the spotter report shows the same temp 4 straight days(8/9-8/12) and then 3 more days lol (8/16-8/18) I guess it's possible, rounding up or down but idk lol

Some guidance, not all, show some LER Sunday night- Monday morning..

They will probably say WU stations are unreliable lol Look at 3 pulaski stations, separated by 7° lol Yes you can get some decent stations if you want to spend 300+.. Not to say something isn't fishy lol But WU stations are also not the most reliable at times.. Obviously during the day you have a solar component..

Enjoy lol At least Average temps continue to lower, we will need high +anomalies to see hot weather in October.. Average highs start in the mid 60s and end in the low 50s..

I'm liking this new rain graphic lol