wolfie09

Ironically I had the same 2° jump at around the same time (3pm)..lol I've obviously been a little suspect of readings during the warmest part of the day, running around+2 compared to the PULASKI COOP .. These are 5 minute intervals.

We'll see how this looks in a week or so lol It would have"potential" for first flakes in the higher elevations..

..Active Pattern with strong cold front passage and then prolonged lake effect rain event... A strong, dynamic system will start this period, marking a flip to temperature values that will be much closer to normal...though possibly still remaining above seasonal norms. A dip to near 500 hPa of a 1.5 PV intrusion will help deepen a surface low that will track just to our west and north Friday Night. This deepening surface low will advance a cold front to our doorsteps at 12Z Saturday morning. This will maintain a mild airmass over our region Friday Night with temperatures falling only into the upper 50s across WNY...though farther from the surface low...low/mid 50s east of Lake Ontario. The 00Z suite of deterministic models of the GFS, Canadian and ECMWF as well as their ensembles (00Z GEFS, 12Z ECMWF) have come into agreement with the cold front passing across our region midday Saturday. This front will end our stretch of 70s, though a few spots east of Lake Ontario and across the Finger Lakes could still see 70 by late morning before the cold front passes through. As for rainfall, warm air advection will bring light showers across the region Friday Night...increasing in intensity across WNY later in the night. Convective activity starting the day Saturday across WNY will expand to areas east of Lake Ontario through the morning. Though not much, MUCAPE values of several hundred J/KG building ahead of the cold front could bring some rumbles of thunder...first during the day Friday and then again ahead and along the cold front later Friday Night and into Saturday. The combination of the deepening surface low, instability, and strong LLJ of 45 to 50 knots at 4K feet could bring some gusty winds with the convective precipitation late Friday Night and into Saturday. At this point it is to early to tell where the core of the stronger low level winds will lie...but will be something to watch for as we draw closer to the weekend. If the strength of LLJ increases, wind gusts will become more of a concern for Saturday morning/midday. Synoptic winds will increase later Saturday and especially Sunday as a deeper cold airmass with increased mixing heights reaches our region. Shower chances will continue into the early part of next week under moist cyclonic flow aloft...with activity enhanced east of the Lakes as cooler air at 850 hPa (+1 to +3C) passes over the warm lakes. Lake bands will persist the longest off Lake Ontario where deeper ambient moisture resides, with the lake plume of rain oscillating through at least Monday, with perhaps a few sprinkles or light showers Monday Night. Surface high pressure will pass by to our south, with warming aloft ending the lake bands. Clearing Monday Night with light winds will allow for a seasonably cool night with temperatures dropping down into the upper 30s inland to upper 40s near the lakes

A cold front slowly approaching from the west will stall over southern Ontario early Friday. This will continue the chance for showers during the day Friday and into Friday night. The greatest chance for showers is expected west of the Genesee Valley. As the front slowly tracks closer to the area, showers will gradually expand eastward. With the area still ahead of the cold front, temperatures will still be above normal, with highs in the low to mid 70s. A developing wave of low pressure will track northeast along the stalled frontal boundary starting Friday night into early Saturday, increasing the potential for showers and steady rain from WNY to the North Country. A widespread rainfall of an inch or more is looking more and more likely for Friday night into Saturday. The cold front just west of the area late in the week will cross the forecast area on Saturday continuing the potential for rain through most of the day on Saturday. Gusty winds will be possible on Saturday as a LLJ crosses the region with the strengthening area of low pressure. Behind the cold front, and within a large trough over the region cooler temps will cause the widespread synoptic rain to transition to lake enhanced and then lake effect showers. 850H temps will cool to generally the 0 to 2 degrees celsius range, and combined with with the roughly 15C+ lake temperatures, a lake response off of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario can be expected through the weekend. Guidance is also showing a few shortwave troughs moving through at different times through the weekend that will also increase the potential for some more widespread showers, but also lake showers. High temperatures will be in the mid 60s to near 70 on Saturday. Temperatures will cool closer to normal for the rest of the long term period, with highs in the low 50s over the higher terrain to the low 60s for the lower elevations for Sunday and Monday. Temperatures warm slightly to the mid 50s to mid 60s for the middle of the week.

Majority time it can be explained.. For today it has to do with the Surface/ULL near lake superior, pumping South/SW flow from the OV.. Weak system off the coast causing more of a NE on shore flow closer to the coast..Plus added cloud cover due to this feature..Hard to see in "night mode" but it's there..

Looks like the Canadian is already in fine winter form

As of now I'm seeing a return to average"ish" highs early next week but we will still struggle with regards to overnight lows.. Obviously a big reason is the synoptic and lake effect rain showers forecasted.. Actually lows "should" be in the upper 30s by early next week according to the pulaski COOP..

Hopefully the start of a busy lake effect season lol Lastly, WPC..

GFS vs European for this weekend..

The highly amplified upper ridge over the eastern CONUS will result in a dry and unseasonably warm day today. Temperatures will generally average as much as 20 degrees above normal, with record challenging high temperatures possibly exceeding 80 degrees across the lower terrain.

Decent amount of precipitation on the euro between the frontal passage and LER. A strong upper level trough/surface cold front are progged to cross western and northcentral NY sometime between later Friday night and the first half of Saturday night. Strong forcing and ample moisture will bring the next round of more significant showers to our area, however due to timing differences between the various guidance packages, will cap PoPs at High Chc at this time. PoPs will need to be increased during at least a portion of this timeframe when better confidence in the exact timing occurs. Much cooler air filters in later Saturday night into Sunday in the wake of the cold fropa. A cool, moist cyclonic flow aloft will keep scattered showers around, with lake effect showers possible downwind of the Lakes as 850Ts cool to somewhere in the neighborhood of 0C to +3C. It will also become quite breezy as well. Well above normal temperatures through the end of the work week, will trend toward more seasonable readings by the second half of weekend in the wake of the strong cold fropa.

Chances for showers then begin to increase Friday night into Saturday, as the upstream trough pushes in and cold front works into and slowly crosses the area. However, there still is some model timing issues but it does appear that cooler and more seasonable air will arrive across the Lower Lakes over the weekend. It may even get cold enough aloft by Sunday to support some lake effect rain showers.

Favored Years for comparison to existing ONI episode are: 1955, 1956, 1971, 1984, 1985 (x2), 1996, 2001, 2011 are the selected analogs for the NDJFM 2021-22 season. Source

Euro monthlies 2M Temp anomalies, November through Feb.. Posted by Larry Cosgrove.. Source

Hell of a fight last night..

GFS on and off, still advertising some cooler fall like weather starting mid month.. Decent LER event on the latest 18z..

A little more comfortable today, at least so far..Temps in the low-mid 60s with DPs down into the mid 50s.. Plenty of cloud cover with a decent breeze picking up..

Not that you can trust these models lol

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... ...Near Record Temperatures During This Period... A weak wave aloft and associated surface warm front will pass through the area on Sunday. The better forcing will remain northwest of the area, however there will be the chance for a shower toward the Saint Lawrence Valley during the first half of the day. At the same time, southeasterly onshore flow on the north side of low pressure moving up the Eastern Seaboard off the Delmarva will throw moisture back to the northwest across eastern PA and southcentral NY. This will bring the chance for a light shower or two possibly as far west as Allegany, Livingston and Ontario Counties. Otherwise, an amplifying ridge over the region during this period will result in fair weather for the first part of the new work week, with the next chance for a few showers not coming into the picture until Tuesday afternoon across western NY. Temperatures will average WELL above normal. In fact, high temperatures Monday and Tuesday will approach record levels.

Well at least somewhere in the east is feeling a little chill lol

If you want"cooler" weather go downstate lol Or interior New England..Once again eastern lakes take the brunt of it..

Good time to work on the radar as we continue this "dry spell" over the next 7-10 days...We have had "only" 0.46" through the first week of October, average is a touch over 5" for the month..

Looking at a potential"cool" down mid month..CPC teles showing pna "potentially" going from negative to positive mid month as well as a negative NAO and AO..