wolfie09

Yeah sweet band for sure..

Here is KSYR Feb 2015..

Lake firing up, pretty disorganized at the moment.. Should become better organized overnight/morning before slowly pushing south..

WPC QPF for the lake effect portion.. Heaviest looks to be in C Oswego county, which looks about right from what I have seen..

So who's chipping in? Lol I asked the old lady we can afford another mortgage right? Yeah didn't go over well lol Would be a nice LES getaway..

Front has totally cleared kbuf CWA, winds have flipped W/WNW on the backside..

They go by what's reported from the spotters.. Phoenix for example had 22"..That's how lake effect rolls lol Two to four feet fell within the narrow band off Lake Ontario as well...from Wayne County to the Syracuse area. In fact, some Syracuse area locations received close to five feet. The gradients were extreme though...with only a few inches falling over many nearby locations. Off Lk Ontario: Lacona....51 inches Newark....42 inches Fulton....29 inches Marion....29 inches Phoenix....22 inches Rochester area....14 to 24 inches Syracuse area....40 to 60 inches

It's lovely out lol Pouring with almost an inch on the day.. Next update sizzlecuse should be lower, we went from 68° to 62° once the heavy rain moved in..Winds starting to pick up as well..

It wouldn't be a lake effect event without the potential for graupel lol Graupel and a few rumbles of thunder are possible near the lakes in these bands of rain Hi Rez Canadian has some stronger bands tomorrow morning, early afternoon..

Not getting much here tonight but quite the lightning display to the west..

Thanks.. The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Central Cayuga County in central New York... Southwestern Onondaga County in central New York... * Until 430 PM EDT. * At 403 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Levanna, or 10 miles south of Auburn, moving east at 20 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This dangerous storm will be near... Venice Center around 415 PM EDT. Fleming and Scipio Center around 420 PM EDT. Casowasco and Cascade around 425 PM EDT. Owasco, Moravia and Niles around 430 PM EDT.

First warning popped up SW of syracuse..

Radar back up just in time..

It's always tough early in the season near the lakes BUT first potential frost/freeze during that time frame as well.. (if GFS is to be believed) We'll see how it looks when we draw closer lol

Same with the GFS, 3rd week in October..

Few flakes showing up on the euro (0z)..

3k has two lines developing tomorrow for CNY, 1 in the morning, another early afternoon..

Could be some decent precipitation wrt the front and LER..NWS going with a WNW"ish" wind direction, focal point Oswego county.. Forecast calls for 1"-2" synoptic and up to an inch liquid lake effect..Rgem as usual probably going a little overboard, especially over WNY vs the consensus.. There will be some variation in wind direction, but a general theme of WNW flow will direct most of the Lake Erie lake effect into the western Southern Tier. Given the degree of over-water instability lake equilibrium levels are forecast to rise sharply off both lakes, though lack of steady deep moisture and some shear in the convective layer will hold back the intensity of the lake effect, at least at times. Overall the setup appears more favorable for Lake Ontario, with generally higher inversions over 10-12kft much of the time, longer over-water fetch given the wind direction and potential for multi-lake upstream connections. This may produce locally heavy rain at times centering on Oswego County where additional rainfall for the Saturday night through Sunday night period will near an inch.

Usually don't see this amount of precipitation advertised on the euro, 2nd or 3rd run in a row showing 3"-5" locally, granted some of this is from the surface cold front..

GFS still has a system 3rd week of October, goes right over us verbatim lol Probably some lake effect to follow..

Once cold front moves through by early Saturday afternoon, temps will fall into the upper 50s over higher terrain of WNY to the low to mid 60s Finger Lakes to east of Lake Ontario. It will become quite breezy on Saturday with gusts over 30 mph near both lakes. The cold air will set lake effect processes quickly into motion. First, expect lake effect showers to develop off Lake Erie over western Southern Tier of WNY with mainly westerly flow in the boundary layer. Eventually but pretty late in the day, west-northwest flow will result in lake effect setting up from Tug Hill southwest to the southeast shoreline of Lake Ontario. Initially the intensity of the lake effect will be muted with overall subsidence behind the initial cold front. On Saturday night the lake effect will increase with forecast soundings showing lake ELs rising to over 20kft as initial push of cold air advection lowers H85 temps to +1c to +2c resulting in more than sufficient over-water instability. While this is occurring, additional larger scale lift will develop over the lower Great Lakes and low-level convergence will increase as shown by sfc-H95 winds. Lake effect should sharpen up and intensify, especially off Lake Ontario given a longer over water fetch and more persistent deeper moisture to H7. With temps in the lake convective layer reaching -10c and ELs continuing to increase toward 30kft, setup seems to favor potential for thunder in the stronger lake effect bands. Will stay somewhat breezy for all areas and temps will drop to the 40s and 50s, coolest Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. Sunday into Monday, deep trough with coldest air of the season thus far crosses the lower Great Lakes and Northeast. By time coldest air crosses late Monday into Monday night, H85 temps fall to +1c over western NY and to -4c just to east of Lake Ontario. Looking at prolonged lake effect showers southeast of both lakes as winds in boundary layer will have veered northwest by late in the weekend. Deepest moisture and highest inversions will be across Lake Ontario and this is where there will also further support from upstream connections off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay and the overall support of a longer fetch. Forecast soundings supported keeping likely pops over western Southern Tier on Sunday with categorical pops east-southeast of Lake Ontario. Setup remains very favorable into Monday off Lake Ontario. Off Lake Erie though, approach of sfc high and subsidence will result in conditions becoming more hostile to lake effect so have continued to lower pops there. Given the degree of over- water instability, certainly cannot rule it out but just does not look to have the staying power, intensity with what will be occurring southeast of Lake Ontario. No real change to going forecast either way. Will remain breezy on Sunday especially near the stronger mixing over the lakes. Temps both Sunday and Monday will be below normal with highs both days struggling to reach 60 degrees. Lake effect off Lake Ontario will begin to wane late Monday into Monday night as sfc ridge approaches. Some clouds and at least small chance of showers could linger southeast of Lake Ontario until Tuesday though since the H925-H85 ridge will not begin to arrive until that time. Once the lake effect ends, high pressure at the sfc and aloft with warming temps aloft will result in dry and warmer weather. Highs Tuesday will return to the mid 60s though higher terrain may stay in the 50s. All but the highest terrain east of Lake Ontario will see highs in the 60s on Wednesday. Low temps Tuesday night could dip into the 30s for typical cold spots of Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario.