wolfie09

Meanwhile, the next incoming trough will be amplifying across the Central Plains and Upper Great Lakes Wednesday. This upper level trough will deepen and eventually form a cut off low over the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes. Said upper level pattern will support a surface low and associated surface fronts to form over the Upper Great Lakes. The surface low is then progged to deepen and advance northeast into lower Ontario, Canada Thursday. Overall this will initially push a warm front across the region Thursday, followed by a cold frontal passage Friday/Saturday. While, model guidance packages are relaying the same scenarios, their timing of the features are different between the 12Z long range guidances packages and therefore, expect chances for rain showers to increase Thursday with the initial passage of the warm front. Followed by a further increase in PoPs Friday and Saturday with the likelihood of the cold frontal passage. Showers will primarily remain in the form of rain since the air mass overhead will be primed with above normal temperatures. In the wake of the frontal passage, much colder air will advect in across the region dropping temperatures down to around -6C at 850mb. That being said, the cold air aloft, along with leftover synoptic moisture and the trough axis crossing overhead lake effect precipitation can be expected late Saturday and Saturday night, though the specifics this far out are too hard to pin down. Otherwise, most of the period will remain above normal with regards to temperatures with highs ranging from the mid 50s to low 60s. However, the cold frontal passage late in the week will modulate temperatures downward for highs in the mid 40s across the higher terrain and low 50s across the lake plains.

Although the euro shows cooler than normal conditions at the end of it's run, greatest - anomalies look to remain south (as of now)..

It's kind of hard to compare when Oswego has had it's worst 2 year span in history.. According to the Oswego E spotter last year was 59" and the previous year 52".. Syracuse was much closer to average then Oswego was..

The average snow here in November (past 8 years) is 12"..Now 3 of those years were pretty good good, 2014-2015-25", 2016-2017-24" and 2018-2019-27"..Those 3 seasons finished with an average of 164"..The 3 bad years in that span (2015-2016 and the past 2 years) have a combined 6.5" and had an average of 75"..Small sample size I know but good Novembers tend to lead to good Winters, at least stat wise lol

That's only an 8 year average which includes 3 years with an average of 75" and 5 years at 170" ish.. Those 3 terrible years are the worst I can find..The pulaski COOP has been around since 1947 but only 45% reporting, missing ton of data.. Pulaski averages more than Oswego which averages 141" per year and Bennet's bridge 9 miles east (elevation 600-700') averages 183"..NWS map has pulaski to altmar 160"-180"..(less west, more east)..

CMC at the end of it's run..

Well GFS still shows something mid month..That's about it for now lol

A tranquil and mild period will last through the first half of next week as a strong ridge builds into the Southeast States and Ohio Valley. The ridge axis will cross the eastern Great Lakes Monday, with 850MB temps peaking at around 10C. This will support highs in the lower 60s for lower elevations with a good deal of sunshine. The ridge will then be flattened by a shortwave moving along the US/Canadian border later Tuesday and Tuesday night, with an associated weak cold front dropping south across the area. This front may produce a few spotty light showers Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. The front will also bring temperatures down a notch for Wednesday, with highs in the low to mid 50s. The ridge axis surface and aloft will then drift towards the east coast by Thursday as a deep trough carves out over the central CONUS. Warm advection downstream of the trough will bring an increase in clouds by Thursday and perhaps a chance of a few light showers, but overall preference lies with the slower 00Z ECMWF solution which would delay the better rain chances until Friday. &&

That map is for the 1981-2010 period..Not very much data in the 80s and 90s..

Just like TS forecast has Fulton 160"-170" but that map has them 120-140, shit happens lol They obviously don't have an "average" for every area.

If it's numbered it a spotter, if not then it's obviously"flawed".. This is a trained spotter 1W Colden which averages around 167".

They also have a dot of 120"-140" right over KSYR

Here's the latest annual snow map for kbuf CWA..They don't cover syracuse so I wouldn't worry about that area lol But this is the 2010, 30 year average.. Definitely some flaws in the map but all the numbers are from spotters . An updated 30-year snowfall climatology map of the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office Buffalo, NY county warning area is constructed from National Centers for Environmental Information 1981-2010 Normals point data using a Geographic Information System-driven objective analysis technique, replacing the previous map that was constructed using human-expert techniques. The new technique, henceforth referred to as Ordinary Least- Square Regression with Residual Correction (OLRwRC), involves a regression analysis of 30- year normal snowfall point data across the CWA against values derived from gridded cold- season precipitation data obtained from the PRISM Climate Group. The resulting regression equation is applied to the gridded Parameter-elevation Regression on Independent Slopes (PRISM) precipitation data to create an initial snowfall map, which is then corrected using an interpolated grid of the residuals from the regression. The resulting map, while not without flaws, is a significant step forward in the representation of snowfall climatology in western and north-central New York, revealing previously unresolved details and highlighting the significant variability in snowfall that is caused by the area’s unique geography. Here are the updated numbers for lowville..(1991-2020)

GFS mid month..Next chance for some cooler weather to come down..

An upper level ridge will move into the Great Lakes and Northeast the start of next work week. Dry and warm weather expected during this time. An area of low pressure will approach the Great Lakes early next week. It remains uncertain how this system will track but moisture should increase ahead of this system by Tuesday night. Low chances for showers begin Wednesday. Above normal temperatures expected through this period. Above normal temperatures will likely continue into next weekend

Daily Lake Average Surface Water Temperature. Year Day Sup. Mich. Huron Erie Ont. St.Clr

Euro has a big front moving through at the end of it's run.. Probably would set off some LE with the low hanging back..

Turned out to be a solid precipitation event, just to marginal early in the season.. These might not be the final numbers, who knows lol

Starting to see a few flakes in the air as this band continues to tease us lol

Yeah same here, minus the flakes haha.. Pouring graupel out as the lake is starting to fire up somewhat.. Temp is down to 34° which is 9° colder than this time yesterday..

Shortwave trough digs across later tonight all while inversion heights (5-7kft) and temps aloft (H85 temps around -7c falling to around -8c) remain sufficient for lake effect to continue. Expect scattered rain showers this afternoon to transition back to lake effect tonight. Forecast soundings show flow in the lake convective layer westerly so areas east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will be favored most of the night, before winds become light setting up sharper convergence zones/lake effect bands that will eventually shift the lake effect closer to the lakeshores on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Given H85 temps down to -7c or -8c, ptype after sunset will be snow except for right along the immediate lakeshores. Snow amounts tonight will depend on if bands can persist for any longer duration, but seems that at least a couple inches will fall over western Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario, especially over the Tug Hill with westerly upslope flow. At the high end, could see 4 inches on the Tug Hill tonight but this will depend how quickly the lake effect gets going again this evening. Away from the areas experiencing lake effect, chilly night with winds becoming light. Lows where it can clear out will fall into the mid to upper 20s. On Thursday, lake effect will be pinned closer to the eastern shore of Lake Erie and impacting southeast and eastern shorelines of Lake Ontario. Ptype with the lake effect will be mix of rain snow in the morning before changing to rain by afternoon. Given temps only as low as mid 30s where lake effect will be ongoing in the morning, expect minimal snow amounts to start the day. With trough overhead Thursday, expect expanding stratocu clouds with heating of the day. Winds will be light again but temps will also stay on the chilly side with readings a few degrees warmer than what is occurring this afternoon

Weather starts to become more active as we head into mid month, at least according to the last few runs of the GFS.. Doesn't mean snow, just active lol