wolfie09

Now we are seeing some traditional"parachutes" but the band is slowly sinking southward..

Getting bouts of heavier snow with occasional graupel..A little disorganized at the moment..It is slowly accumulating with temps a little below freezing..

Looks like WPC going with moderate probabilities (4+) in C Oswego county..

Starting to stick to the roadways, mix of heavy snow and graupel..

Band is a mess right now, should organize better this evening just in time to move south lol Either way intermittent snow showers..

That's actually 6"-8" Mr Matt, 4"-6" for syracuse proper..

GFS looked somewhat better for this weekend..

The joys of predicting lake effect precipitation..

Euro consistent with the wrap around W/NW flow this upcoming weekend..

Rgem fwiw

The last few runs of the medium range guidance have exhibited a fairly large degree of variance with the forward speed of this next system...though a general model consensus suggests a somewhat faster arrival time. With this in mind have brought a chance of rain showers a bit deeper into our area Thanksgiving afternoon...though the best precipitation probabilities still look to hold off until Thanksgiving night...when enough moisture and forcing now appear present to support widespread likely PoPs. With our area remaining on the warm side of this system Thursday... expect highs on Thanksgiving to range from the mid 40s to lower 50s...with temps then falling off into the upper 20s to mid 30s Thanksgiving night following the passage of this system`s cold front. The influx of colder air will also help force snow showers to mix in with the rain Thanksgiving night. After that...our region looks to be dominated by a seasonably cold cyclonic westerly to west-northwesterly flow through the rest of this period...with the much more consistent ECMWF package favored. This will result in a return to somewhat below normal temps along with renewed lake effect potential east and east-southeast of the lakes...and a general chance of rain and snow showers elsewhere.

Latest CPC D 6-10 outlook.. D 8-14 neutral..

Euro had a wrap around regime with the 2nd cold front, next weekend fwiw.. Obviously can't take the numbers at full face value.. Canadian was all Lake effect behind that front.. Week out, it will obviously change..Got my maps out for the day..

Only kbuf has the scale that high lol The rest of the east coast maxes out at 30"-36", would of needed an extra color lol

More favorable conditions for lake effect will then arrive very late Monday and Monday night as slightly colder air aloft overspreads the lakes...background synoptic moisture deepens/inversion heights rise for a time...and upstream connections to Lake Huron/Georgian Bay potentially become better established. This said...the low level flow also looks to become increasingly northwesterly through this period...which will result in a shortening fetch across the lakes and the lake bands also moving around a bit more than what previous model guidance had advertised. Taking all these factors into consideration...feel that a period of potentially advisory-worthy snows appears to be the most likely outcome east-southeast and southeast of both lakes late Monday into Monday night...with the best chances for these found across Wayne and Northern Cayuga counties southeast of Lake Ontario. With this in mind...have maintained a mention of this in the HWO. As the bands migrate further south...some of the accumulating snows will also likely overspread the Niagara to Monroe county corridor Monday night... where somewhat lower amounts of 1-3" will be possible where snow showers are more persistent. Outside of the main lake effect areas... expect a few scattered lighter snow showers with otherwise mainly dry and cold weather prevailing Monday night. Lows will mostly range through the 20s...except across interior portions of the North Country where readings may dip into the mid-upper teens. Next chances of precipitation arrives Thursday night as the next longwave trough moves into the Great Lakes with an associated sharp cold front. Precipitation could mix with wet snow across higher terrain later Thursday night as colder air arrives behind the front. Post cold frontal airmass Friday into Saturday will be cold enough for a typical westerly flow lake effect regime east of the lakes with the likelihood for accumulating snows.

2010-2020 was decent snow wise in pulaski but it's the"stinkers" we all remember lol The area had 3 years below 100° which averaged out to a whopping 70".. Now the other 7 years averaged out to be 178", put them together and it's 140 something lol But the pulaski area only had 1 year in the 140s, it has either been over or way below..

Our next failure here? Lol Gfs has more of a robust lake response..

NWS goes on the"high" end every event, it's nothing new lol Right now all they have his the Rgem as meso-models are not yet in range...

Well it only takes one event to have a near average November, we have 2 shots in the next 7 days behind 2 CFs (22nd, 27th), so we'll see lol

A sharpening upper level trough will move into the Upper Great Lakes Sunday night with a cold airmass spreading into the Northern Plains to Mid-West. A surface low around 993mb will track from Northeastern Ontario to northern Quebec Sunday night into Monday. A strong cold front will track across western and north central NY Monday. Southwest winds will rapidly increase especially northeast of the Lakes with 15-25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph. Rain will transition to snow, most likely across the higher elevations late Sunday night then elsewhere Monday morning. Strong cold air advection will bring 850mb temperatures to -10C by Monday afternoon. Lake effect showers will begin shortly after the cold front moves through a location. Mean wind will start off as southwest Monday afternoon - evening before winds veer to the northwest Monday night into Tuesday. Lake bands east-northeast of the Lakes Monday will shift southward, targeting southeast of the Lakes. The cold front Monday will result in falling temperatures Monday with highs in the morning especially across western NY. Temperatures will fall into the low to mid 20s Monday night. Most locations will see snow due to the lake bands veering from the southwest early Monday to the northwest by Monday night. Several inches of snowfall is likely east-southeast of the Lakes due to a majority of time the flow will be westerly-northwesterly.

While the Canadian has the same concept as the GFS, it is more robust as winds veer from W-NW..

Yup lol Even though that's not how it should be pronounced.. Pulaski was incorporated on April 26, 1832. Although the village takes its name after General Casimir Pulaski (/pəˈlæski/ pə-LAS-kee), area residents have traditionally pronounced it with a long "i" (/pəˈlæskaɪ/ pə-LAS-kye).

GFS is meh lol FWIW