wolfie09

Model soundings suggesting that most of the lake-induced convective depth will be within the favored dendritic growth zone which will help to improve snow ratios with time as we move through the day Friday. The period of most organized lake snows is expected to be during the day Friday and into early evening as background synoptic moisture interact with increasing lake processes. Snowfall totals should easily exceed 6 inches in favored higher terrain areas east/southeast of the lakes with localized amounts near a foot quite possible, particularly along the Chautauqua Ridge where additional enhancement to snowfall totals is expected for the Chautauqua Ridge with most mesoscale guidance suggesting an upstream connection to Lake Huron. With enhanced amounts expected off Lake Erie will issue a Lake Effect Snow Warning for Chautauqua county with the highest amounts focused along the Chautauqua Ridge. Winter Weather advisories will be issued for Southern Erie and Cattaraugus counties. The highest amounts here will be across the higher terrain, and it is not out of the question that far southern portions of Erie and northwest portions of Cattaraugus county could see localized amounts near a foot as well. Without the help of an upstream connection for Lake Ontario amounts should be a bit lower than off Lake Erie, but not by much. Winter weather advisories will be issued for the Tug Hill area east of Lake Ontario, then curving down through northern Cayuga and Wayne counties. The heaviest amounts will be focused on the Tug Hill, localized amounts near a foot could also occur depending on how long favorable upslope flow occurs before the flow turn more northwesterly. Outside of the lake areas, Friday will be windy with gusty westerly winds of 30-40 mph that will generate wind chill values in the teens and lower 20s that will be accompanied by some snow showers that could accumulate up to an inch or two. Blowing snow will create visibility issues at times, especially for areas where bursts of heavier snow occur and lake effect areas. Wind gusts could be locally enhanced along the higher terrain and closer to the Lake Ontario shoreline.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches. Localized higher totals are possible. The greatest totals expected on the Tug Hill Plateau. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region. * WHEN...From 4 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

So looking at the hrrr more in detail, we should have some steady rain starting early in the morning with temps in the upper 30s to around 40, around 10am lower elevations E/SE of Ontario should be flipping, temps still in the mid 30s, by 2ish we should mostly be below freezing, 4-5 pm in the 20s and falling..Hrrr ends precipitation around 1-2 am..So a good 10-12 hours of accumulating snow verbatim..

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 AM FRIDAY TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Lake effect snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. Northwest winds gusting as high as 40 mph Friday afternoon and evening. * WHERE...Southern Cayuga, Onondaga, Madison and Cortland counties. * WHEN...From 5 AM Friday to 9 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. Areas of blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Temperatures start off in the low to mid 30s Friday morning, before falling into the upper 20s Friday evening, then low to mid 20s overnight.

Tues/wed time frame holds some intrigue.. Especially if we can get a track like that..

High ratio lake effect snow on a northerly flow..Here today, gone tomorrow lol

Hrrr is pretty moist.. Obviously not all snow verbatim..

New map

Gfs18z 24 hour snowfall for Sunday into Monday..

Forecast soundings show plenty of moisture in the snow growth layer through most of the overnight, however the best omega is still progged to be just below the snow growth layer...all in all, things still look rather favorable for snow to liquid ratios reaching 13-16:1 for a time. With QPF amounts between 0.20 to 0.40", that would indicate snow amounts of 3 to 6 inches in the favored areas around Syracuse, south into the higher elevations of the northern Susquehanna & Finger Lakes regions. Still a bit too far out to go with a winter weather advisory at this time, however confidence in these amounts is increasing. Will cover this potential in the HWO for now. If things line up even better than currently forecast (i.e. max Omega becomes better co-located within the snow growth region) the 90th percentile amounts are pushing 6-8" locally around Syracuse and the higher elevations just south. Winds will continue blowing at 15-25 mph and gusty at times overnight, creating areas of blowing, and perhaps drifting snow in wide open areas. Further south, expect scattered snow showers and flurries for the Twin Tiers (up to 1" or so here), with just isolated flurries and partly cloudy skies for the Wyoming Valley/Poconos region. It will be colder with lows well down into the 20s.

Pup All ready for Christmas..

Sunday through Monday the guidance suite is coming into better agreement on dropping a fairly potent shortwave through the backside of the mean upper level trough across our region...with this feature eventually carving out a small closed low over New York State and/or New England by Monday...while also helping to deepen the larger- scale upper level trough. Meanwhile at the surface...an attendant elongated surface wave will slide over or just south of our region on Sunday...before redeveloping off the New England coastline on Monday. The above developments will result in a good chance for a general light snowfall developing across our area Sunday into Sunday night. PoPs have thus been raised substantially from continuity to account for this...and can foresee a need to raise these even further in later packages should current model trends persist. As the surface low redevelops off the New England coastline later Sunday night and Monday...a cyclonic northwesterly flow of colder air will develop across our region and lead to the development of areas of lake effect snow to the southeast of both lakes...along with a few more synoptic snow showers elsewhere.

Forecast has the change over after 9 am Friday, light accumulation during the day.. Friday night we should have better ratios with the NW flow.. Hoping for a decent 3"-6" lol Friday Rain and snow showers, becoming all snow after 9am. Areas of blowing snow between 9am and 4pm. High near 38. Breezy, with a west wind 17 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Friday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 25. Northwest wind 15 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thanks Dave.. GFS has a little something as well, miller B type system.. Could see some enhancement for the south shore if it verified..

Euro fwiw.. Tug looks decent on most guidance, par for the course..

Rgem fwiw. Has some stronger bands embedded in the W/NW flow..

Friday is shaping up to a be a wintry day with blustery west to northwest winds (20-30 mph most areas and gusting toward 35-40 mph near Lake Ontario) and lake effect snow for w-nw flow areas. Compared to the last lake event we just finished up, there is better large scale forcing and certainly more deeper moisture which will result in greater coverage of the lake effect and bring additional snow from upslope more into play. Otherwise instability is pretty similar with lake EQLs increasing over 10-15kft for a time later Friday into Friday evening before inversions fall and deeper moisture begins to pull away. Upstream connections are hinted at again, but this time more so into the Lake Erie activity with nw flow off Lake Huron. Forecast soundings indicate good portion of lake convective layer will be in the DGZ, so snow will be higher SLR, maybe topping out 15:1. This combined with the gusty winds will also result in some blowing snow especially later Friday into Friday night so that leads to bigger impact. At first glace, seems pretty certain we will eventually need advisories for this event Friday into Friday night for areas off both lakes favored by W-NW flow. CIPS analogs agree, suggesting high-end advy amounts off both lakes.

Big drop off wrt precipitation on the euro for this weekend fwiw..

With the forecasted highs in the low 30s for this weekend and early next week, we "should" finish the month a little below normal..At last check pulaski was +0.4°..

Euro/Canadian for Friday/Sat..