wolfie09

I may enjoy 5 more minutes of snow on Monday night..

GFS not much different than last run, similar track, little stronger once again..

Well time for me to enjoy my 5 minutes of snow lol

Sad day in the football world

Yeah same thing happened a couple weeks later lol After a respite of a few days, the lake effect machine revved up again following the passage of a storm which brought a cold rain to most of the area on the 12th. This event was very long lasting and features three "sub" events...although it never really ended until later Friday the 17th. Most of the accumulation occurred during these three "sub" event periods...a north to northwest "upslope" flow from late Monday (13th) through Tuesday morning (14th) which brought 6-10 inches from Monroe to Wayne County and over a foot to the Chautauqua Ridge...a rare narrow but intense band from Georgian Bay which worked slowly across the Niagara Frontier during afternoon of Tuesday 14th...dropping 4 to 7 inches...and a broader WNW flow off the east end of Lk Ontario on Wed Nt/Thurs morning 15-16t which nailed Oswego County with over a foot.

Euro has it as well but I'd be okay with it if we get some of that cold lol Actually euro cold for majority of the week after that Saturday system moves through..Now we just need some moisture lol

Both GFS and Euro have a follow up SW with limited synoptic moisture but does kick off a little LES, that's about all I got to hope for lol

GFS is quicker, stronger and less confluence..Not a good recipe lol

During the weekend a wavy frontal boundary/baroclinic zone will slowly sag southeastward and across our region...with one or more waves of low pressure rippling northeastward along this boundary and passing over and/or south of our area. The medium range guidance continues to exhibit the usual timing and track differences this far out...but in general this should result in rain and above normal temperatures on Saturday transitioning to snow between Saturday night and Sunday...along with temperatures dropping off to near to slightly below average levels by Sunday. Following the passage of this system...a general west-northwesterly to westerly flow of much colder air (850 mb temps dropping to as low as -16C to -18C Sunday night into early Monday...the coldest airmass we`ve seen so far this winter) will set up for the balance of this period. This will bring the potential for lake effect snow to areas southeast and east of the lakes...along with below average temperatures.

Lol Another day...another forecast of a predominantly wintry mix rubbish winter storm that is set to affect the area. It seems these are the only systems we can get this year.

Euro says NO..

Track is not terrible for kbuf CWA on the ukmet but still mostly rain verbatim lol Same with the Canadian...(some backside enhancement).

Yes indeed..Still borderline verbatim but better lol

Scratch that, that's for tomorrow, they are going 33°, exactly what the NAM is showing..

They are going with warm BL temps..They have a low of 36° for buffalo Wed night..Now Nam keeps buffalo at exactly 33° the entire event.. Kuchera showing something like 7-8/1 ratios, so if the precipitation isn't coming down heavy it may have trouble sticking much..

Guidance is trending drier for Friday followed by a synoptic system approaching the region from the Midwest and Ohio Valley for Saturday morning. Current guidance brings the different synoptic features across the region in pieces through the weekend. Earlier guidance at one point was phasing the northern and southern streams for a stronger system, which most of the current guidance is no longer doing. Either way, it looks like most of the weekend will have at least chance or higher POPs with mostly rain for Saturday and cooler air causing a change over to snow on Sunday, stay tuned.

Coming in different again, no surprise..

Attention will then turn towards a large synoptic system that will impact our region Saturday and Sunday. Several shortwave troughs across the West will merge over the Plains to start the weekend, with an eventual negatively tilted deep trough over the east coast. The global models and their ensemble members still are in disagreement about the track of the surface low, with the GFS and Canadian operational models taking the track to the north of us, while the ECMWF keeps the surface low suppressed to our south. Will favor the climatological favored track of the low cutting by to our west and north, with warming temperatures Saturday Night...with any snow changing over to rain, before a cold front Sunday ends the warm temperatures with rain changing back to snow. High pressure returns later Sunday Night and Monday with a much cooler airmass, and trending drier.

Plenty cold enough in Canada but look at the 850 low and those lovely SW winds lol Still time for change, who knows the first system could become the storm of interest .

GFS trend with the first system.. Second one misses to the south..

Well if you don't wanna be in the bullseye a week out, you got your wish..lol

After that, weather will turn more active for the remainder of the period as one or more waves of low pressure ripple northeast along a baroclinic zone that will be slowly sagging southeastward across, and then south of our region. Still differences on track of primary low lifting across region late next weekend. GFS and Canadian track main low along and northwest of here, so a climatology look and one that would open possibility to strong winds. ECMWF is different and continues to take strong trough out of central Plains and quickly shoves it toward Mid Atlantic States as strongest jet energy remains on front side of the upper trough, so this would not be near as windy as a look and would be a northeast flow instead of southwest to northwest. In terms of sensible weather, some winter could be in store. Widespread precip arrives on Saturday, which depending on track of low would be mainly rain or a mix of rain/snow or only snow. Eventually though no matter what model is preferred, colder air working in later in the weekend would result in mainly snow and potentially some lake effect beyond that as well. Details will need to be sorted out. Going to depend on track of the sfc low, but in general there is an increasing potential for synoptic snow to start off the new year. As for temperatures, they will start off similar to what we have been seeing recently with highs slightly above normal through Sat. However, by the time we reach the first Monday of 2022, it could be a whole different story with what may be a very sharp cooldown per operational GFS/ECMWF and Canadian as well as GFS and ECMWF ensemble data.