wolfie09

Thanks tombo, appreciate it.. Definitely a cave towards the other guidance..

Gonna leave us hanging like that huh? Lol

Watertown 6.8" on 0.48" liquid..

If you look at KSyr for example, grids show 7" on 0.70" liquid between 1am and 1pm..A little add on stuff after this..

I think eventually they will bump kroc back into the 6"-8' range..It could also have to do with ratios, WPC has 1/2"-3/4" precipitation for most, can't always trust kuchie lol

GFS still looks solid, a bit wetter then last run..

The track of the rgem is just some noise but it weakens/transfers several hours sooner, compared to the NAM..

Nam last 10 runs, loved the northern primary track..

Rgem has done that a lot this year..

Still playing catch up lol

Lol.. The 12z runs are up on TT..

This afternoon an elongated surface high pressure is located across Ontario and Quebec, producing a northeasterly flow across our region. A shortwave is crossing the desert Southwest this afternoon. This upstream shortwave will develop and deepen a storm system...one that will advance from the southern Mississippi Valley tonight to sneaking just into WNY around daybreak tomorrow. The dynamics of this storm system are coming together to produce a period of snow (with a mix towards the south). Initial snow formation will be upon isentropic upglide motion, with a 40 to 50 knot LLJ to our south enhancing the overall lift. Aloft several jet streaks at 300 hPa will bring pockets of deeper lift, along with a tightening 700-850 hPa circulation that will pass over our region. Snow will reach our Southern Tier late this evening and quickly spread towards the Lake Ontario region just past midnight. Snow, though only a few inches at the start of rush hour will likely slow the morning commute with snow slicken roads. The surface low will be tracking towards the Southern Tier by early Friday morning. A warm nose ahead of this low will reach into at least the southern two tiers of counties transitioning the snow over to sleet and freezing rain. Will side with a more northward push of the warm nose with the surface high now off to our northeast. The mixed precipitation looks to be in about a 6-9 hour window from late tonight through late tomorrow morning. Thereafter the surface low will track to our east with cold air returning. Snow will end from west to east with the passing of the upper level shortwave a weakening deformation band of snow. The widespread snow will eventually contract back towards the lake belts with a north- northwest flow continuing lake enhanced snows through the late afternoon hours. This north-northwest wind will gust towards 25 to 30 mph tomorrow afternoon behind the front, bringing some blowing snow to the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario. Overall will have snow amounts through Friday within the advisory range for this system south of Lake Ontario, with possible higher amounts east of Lake Ontario where snow ratios should be higher with the surface high to the north and a period of higher snowfall rates through the afternoon hours under the deformation band. Sleet and any freezing rain to the south will hold snow amounts down across the Southern Tier. Cold advection on northwesterly flow starts the period out with lake responses being the biggest player in the forecast. While inversion heights are far from impressive, saturation within the dendritic layer and unstable lapse rates are likely to allow for efficient ice nucleation. This will result in decent coverage of snow showers to the SE of both lakes on Friday night. Better fetch and more open water over Lake Ontario will yield a better response there, however there is ample open water on Lake Erie to allow for a response there too. It seems model guidance is far overplaying ice cover on Lake Erie and minimizing latent heat flux as well as moisture flux off the lake as a result. As usual, only the Canadian model really has any handle at all on this, and it was heavily leaned upon for the forecast. Flow turns from northwesterly to westerly and eventually WSW as cold advection ebbs Saturday into Saturday night. This allows for minimal lake response to continue in the form of very light accumulating snow showers as lake bands lift northward and become more disorganized. This results in further impetus for lake responses to become less robust by Saturday night, as 850 hPa temperatures start to increase from -16C to around -10C, reducing lake-induced instability, especially over Lake Erie, as modest warm advection starts to take hold ahead of the next system to affect the area in the long term forecast.

Not a cloud in the sky but cold low-mid 20s..

Probably the last set of models for me lol Nearing game time..

We could see somewhat of a "lull" or some pellets depending on how far north the primary makes it.. That stuff over WNY will eventually rotate through, according to the NAM..

That is through 7pm Friday so you can add a little to enhancement areas..

Latest map.. NWS has mentioned higher ratios east of Ontario/North country which is the only thing I can think of lol

I guess the Canadians went on strike lol

It's now time to keep an eye on the hrrr, see if any"trends" develop as we get closer.. 17z by tomorrow AM

Euro is about the same precipitation wise.. 12z top, 0z bottom

Here I'll help you out..

Looks like a potential snowy weekend.. Forecast through tomorrow night is 7"-15" which may be a little to high lol At least the high end unless we mix in some solid ratios..

Gfs