wolfie09

Euro

Looking like a 4"-6" event at 10-1.. Maybe the farther south/colder solution gives us better ratios lol Seems like some guidance has a secondary max or "deform" band, possibly from the dying primary, which is what I think the NWS was alluding to..

Ukie

The NWS has mentioned it the last couple cycles but not what the actual SLR will be lol Overall will have snow amounts through Friday within the advisory range for this system south of Lake Ontario, with possible higher amounts east of Lake Ontario where snow ratios should be higher with the surface high to the north and a period of higher snowfall rates through the afternoon hours under the deformation band.

I guess we'll kick it off with the LR Hrrr..Still brings the primary into CNY with brief mixing..

Euro is persistent with that little qpf maximum near Oswego county, not really sure what that's about lol I guess it could be trying to show some enhancement..idk.

GEFS were so so lol

Lies haha Just like other NWS offices, they sit outside the city and away from the immediate lake shore.. WFO Marquette currently is situated eight miles west of downtown Marquette in Negaunee Township. The area is hilly, forested, and rises abruptly by over 750 feet above the Lake Superior shoreline eight miles to the east

GFS looks good..

Less expected snow but higher end then most lol

Improvement compared to it's previous run..

Improvement That's because they are going close to high end lol KSyr expected 8.4" and high end 9"..

Isn't this high end though? At 90th percentile..

Buffalo hasn't updated yet..

A look at deterministic models, the 12Z NAM and 3 km NAM bring the surface low farther northward than the 12Z GFS, ECMWF and Canadian. If the NAM solution were to verify we would see a mix as far north as the southern Lake Ontario shoreline. While with little support from other 12Z models, this trend farther northward with the warm layer have been seen times before. However the top 2 analogs from CIPS were events (January 28th 2009 and February 5th 2014) that featured snow totals that indeed did breech into warning criteria across much of our forecast area. This said there is still too much uncertainty to change headlines with this forecast package update. The dynamics of this storm system are coming together to produce a period of snow (with a mix towards the south). Initial snow formation will be upon isentropic upglide motion, with a 40 to 50 knot LLJ to our south enhancing the overall lift. Aloft several jet streaks at 300 hPa will bring pockets of deeper lift, along with a tightening 700-850 hPa circulation that will pass over our region. Snow will reach our Southern Tier Thursday evening and quickly spread towards the Lake Ontario region just past midnight. The surface low will be tracking towards western PA and possibly into WNY by early Friday morning. This would send a warm nose aloft northward changing the lower atmosphere to a profile that would support sleet and eventually freezing rain. Again, the NAM is the farthest northward with this warm layer...one that would bring a mix up to the southern Lake Ontario shoreline. For now we will keep any mix to our southern two rows of counties. A secondary surface low will form off the Delmarva Peninsula early Friday morning and rapidly deepen as it tracks northward up the coastline. Meanwhile the initial primary low will begin to weaken before combining with the secondary low to our east. A deformation band of snow behind the primary low, that along with the passing of the shortwave aloft will then be the dynamical forcing later in the day Friday, bringing additional accumulation through the morning and afternoon hours. This could also be the period with highest snowfall rates...ones that could near an inch per hour. As the cold air aloft quickly deepens behind this storm system, and ambient moisture lingers a period of lake enhanced snow will likely hang on along the southern shoreline of Lake Ontario as well as southeast of Lake Erie through the afternoon hours. Overall will have snow amounts through Friday within the advisory range for this system south of Lake Ontario, with possible higher amounts east of Lake Ontario where snow ratios should be higher with the surface high to the north and a period of higher snowfall rates through the afternoon hours under the deformation band. Sleet and any freezing rain to the south will hold snow amounts down across the Southern Tier. Behind this system temperatures at 850 hPa will drop down to the mid negative teens Celsius. This along with a northwest wind will develop lake effect snow initially south of the Lakes Friday afternoon, and then southeast of the Lakes Friday Night. Greater amounts will likely be off Lake Ontario, where the waters are still open, and where the northwest winds will have a longer residence time over the Lake waters. Winds, backing as a surface high ridges to our region will steer a weakening band of snow to areas east of Lake Ontario Saturday.

3k gets the mix line up to southern Oswego county, briefly..

Hrrr remains north but still out of range.. Can't trust that model until 6 hours out lol

Could this be due to the release of latent heat? Lol It doesn't look like a ton of convection though and I don't know much about that, Binghamton has brought it up in the past..

Yeah meso-models definitely bring the mix line north..

It's going to be a nowcasting situation as usual lol

Congrats Boston lol The issue with the GEFS is they always seem to be to far SE..

Looks like winter again, coming down nicely as dendrites continue to improve.. Looks like tombo land may be getting into some of the action.. It's quite windy as well..

I don't see a warm layer but probably one in there..