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Everything posted by wolfie09
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Upstate NY Banter and General Discussion..
wolfie09 replied to wolfie09's topic in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania
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A BAND OF HEAVY LAKE ENHANCED SNOW WILL AFFECT PARTS OF ONTARIO...OSWEGO... ORLEANS...WAYNE...GENESEE...MONROE... NIAGARA...NORTHERN CAYUGA...AND NORTHERN ERIE COUNTIES... HAZARDS...A band of moderate to heavy lake enhanced snow which can rapidly reduce visibility to less than a half of a mile. Winds will gust up to 40 mph, producing blowing and drifting snow. LOCATION AND MOVEMENT...At 140 PM EST, a band of moderate to heavy lake enhanced snow stretched along much of the south shore of Lake Ontario from Lockport to Mexico Bay, and was moving southeast at 40 mph. The band of snow will continue to impact areas southeast of Lake Ontario.
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A digging mid level trough will cross Quebec this afternoon before reaching northern New England tonight, driving an arctic cold front southeast across the area this afternoon and early evening. The passage of the arctic front will quickly end the lake response east of Lake Ontario as the band of lake effect snow becomes captured by the arctic front and pushed onshore and well south of the lake this afternoon. The merged lake effect/arctic front band of snow will produce a few brief bursts of moderate to heavy snow as it crosses the area from northwest to southeast this afternoon. The best chance of a burst of heavy snow will be along the south shore of Lake Ontario, Genesee Valley, into the western Finger Lakes and areas southeast of Lake Ontario where the arctic front will have the best lake enhancement. Also expect a brief period of lake enhanced/upslope snow for the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario this afternoon and early evening as convergence and moisture increase just ahead of the arctic front. Accumulations will be minor, with a dusting to 2" in most locations as the snow showers and brief bursts of snow move through the area. Higher terrain east of Lake Erie may see up to 3" with lake enhancement, and the Tug Hill/Oswego County may see an additional 3" this afternoon and evening with lake and upslope enhancement. Winds will continue to gust in the 25 to 35 knot range through this evening, producing blowing and drifting snow in open areas. Following the passage of the arctic front, limited lake effect snow will develop southeast of Lake Ontario and Erie later this evening through early Monday morning in NW/NNW flow. Inversion heights quickly lower and the airmass quickly dries behind the arctic front, so any additional accumulations will be minor overnight through Monday morning with a spotty 1-2" possible in persistent bands. Winds will quickly diminish overnight, bringing an end to blowing and drifting snow.
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An elevated warm front will approach the region Monday night. Moisture will increase as a 30kt low-level jet moves across the region and light snow will begin to move into the North Country very late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Temperatures will fall to the teens across western NY to near 0F across the North Country Monday night. The associated area of low pressure near Lake Huron Tuesday morning will track east over Lake Ontario and the Saint Lawrence Valley by Tuesday afternoon. A southerly flow ahead of the advancing cold front will allow surface temperatures to climb into the upper 30s to low 40s across the region. Mainly rain showers will increase in coverage as a cold front tracks across the region Tuesday. Colder temperatures will persist at higher elevations east of Lake Ontario and snow showers are likely through the afternoon with minor accumulations on the Tug Hill Tuesday. Widespread rain and snow showers taper off to scattered snow showers Tuesday night. Minor snow accumulation is possible. Temperatures will fall to the 20s across western NY to the teens across the North Country. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Another area of low pressure will quickly track from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes region Wednesday. The chance for snow showers will increase during the day becoming more widespread by Wednesday night. Cold, northwest flow will move back into the region resulting in 850mb temperatures falling to near -20C by Thursday night. Lake effect snow showers are possible through Thursday night. An area of high pressure will likely build into the region Friday into Saturday resulting in mostly dry conditions. A warming trend may start Saturday with temperatures climbing above normal. An area of low pressure may produce widespread rain for the weekend.