wolfie09

Fwiw Keep in mind total snowfall Includes Wednesday, not so much for kbuf CWA though..

Icon 12z

On Wednesday, southern stream sourced shortwave trough trending toward impacting eastern forecast area with light precipitation, mainly in the form of snow. PVA from the shortwave with divergence aloft provides most of the forcing as stronger low-level convergence and moisture transport is tied into sfc low which will be shifting off the East Coast Wednesday afternoon. Look at forecast soundings and 2m temps points to wet-bulb cooling keeping majority of the precip as snow, though a mix of rain/snow showers is likely on edge of stronger lift /mid-level cooling with shortwave. Still will be sharp western edge to this system with only chance pops BUF to ROC to SLV. In terms of snow accumulations, could see as much as a few inches from NY/PA line to Finger Lakes and over higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. Given marginal temps in the lower 30s, most of the snow will be at highest elevations

Last night euro fwiw..

Friday starts off dry, then later Friday, approaching mid-level trough and upper level jet could bring some showers into western NY to North Country. Cold front tied to the mid-level trough crosses region on Friday night. Then, southern stream trough lifts across Ohio Valley and arrives over the Northeast. Extent of phasing between these two troughs dictates how far west primary deepening sfc low tracks late Friday night into Saturday. Trend on most guidance now is for the phasing to occur later and thus, the sfc low is farther east on almost all guidance compared to what was shown 24- 48 hr ago. So, quicker change to snow Friday night. Now, even though that primary sfc low is east, there is a signal of stripe of moderate to heavy snow farther west along the cold front and due to forcing from the northern branch trough. Will need to continue to monitor the trends as this system could produce several inches of accumulating snow and also gusty west-northwest winds on Saturday as the deepening system lifts across New England and very chilly air for this time of year pours across the lower Great Lakes region. There remains a lot of moving parts in how this system ultimately works out across the region. Any changes in the specific portions of this system has the potential to cause significant changes to the forecast, so stay tuned

Lol..Yeah that's what happens when they ride the rgem every event..

850H temps will drop to around -20C by Saturday evening, which will be approaching near record cold 850H temps per the SPC sounding climatology page for the date.

Beauty lol

They half assed it lol Only partially updated.. This is old news the GFS is directly over WNY, the Euro over CNY, and the Canadian over ENY.

I haven't checked all the models but daytime precipitation with temps above freezing and light precipitation rates don't bode well lol

All snow now with a light covering on the deck but precipitation looks to end shortly .

Down to 33° with mostly sleet now.. Some mangled flakes as well..

Mean through Saturday

GEFS

36° with moderate-heavy rain..

Back and forth we go..

Nothing like that lake plain warmth lol Obviously can't afford to be fringed this time of year.

Let the waffling begin lol

EPS

Mean snowfall fwiw(could include a little from Wednesday)

CMC ensemble mean+members..