wolfie09

GEFS

These little wobbles are to be expected..

Sweet track on the rgem..

We need those western leaners to verify and we'll be good lol

It's because those individuals are using some sort of ratio method..

So does COD It's that "dynamical ratio" lol

That's weird, PW looks great lol

Icon considerably SE and weaker..

An elderly epilepsy patient unexpectedly died during a brain scan, revealing bursts of activity associated with memory recall, meditation, and dreaming.. https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/brain-scans-suggest-life-flashes-before-our-eyes-upon-death-180979647/

Heavier precipitation did push a little west at 18z..(more western members)

Nice, at least for this run lol

The leading edge of a potent mid-level trough will bring increasing chances for a few showers to far western NY into the North Country on Friday. The cold front tied to this mid-level trough begins to enter the region Friday evening while a southern stream trough...originating out of the Desert SW begins to interact with the trough tracking out of the upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Timing or phasing between these two troughs will then dictate how far west or east the developing sfc low then tracks. This will be the key in determining snow amounts for our area. Right now...the best chance for accumulating snows will focus from the Genesee Valley into the North Country with lesser amounts further west. Even so...it appears that there will likely be some accumulating snows with the eastward advancing cold front for all of the CWA. Will mention this potential in the HWO. Keep in mind though...any changes in any specific portion of this system has the potential to cause significant changes to the forecast, Saturday...current guidance rapidly deepens the coastal sfc low(< 970 mb) as it steams up the Northeast coast. Any remaining synoptic snows will gradually transition over to a hybrid of lake enhanced to then pure lake effect snows as the day progresses. CAA on the back side of this system sends 850 hPa down to -16C/-18C. BUFKIT profiles show deep moisture extending well through the DGZ and upstream connections coming into play. It`s likely that there will be some accumulating lake snows east-southeast of the lakes. One other thing to note...as the sfc low pulls away winds will become quite gusty. That said...don`t want to get too far ahead as there is still a lot of time for things to change for Saturday and Saturday night Stay tuned.

LR NAM starting to get into range..

Icon 18z decided to come in farther west..

Seahawks trading Russell Wilson to Denver.. They received a nice haul considering Wilson will be 34 this fall.. The Broncos have agreed to trade quarterback Drew Lock, tight end Noah Fant, defensive lineman Shelby Harris, two first-round picks, two second-round picks and a fifth-round pick to the Seahawks for Wilson and a fourth-round pick, sources said.

NAM and mesos have schooled the globals all season...The models literally trend until its game time lol

Euro is meh lol Clown map doesn't look terrible but the good rates slide off to the south and east..

GEFS

Ukie