wolfie09

Can't hold back my excitement..

Euro is dreadful..Warm Monday, not much with the follow up.. I'm thinking the clown map is including some mixed precipitation..

Not looking great at 12z, with the GFS being most favorable(Imby), another 1"-3" event it is lol

First wave on the GFS looks a little north and warmer, it's a rain-snow scenario on Monday.. Our best shot looks to be Monday night with better timing and colder air available.. Obviously not going to be a big one though..

LR Nam wants to hop on the JT express..

Flakes flying here but the band is having issues pushing inland, which was expected.. Big time dendrites though, I'll enjoy it while I have it lol

Next system comes through on Monday. Sfc-H85 wave rides along the now stalled out frontal boundary that comes through the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast Sunday night. Heaviest QPF currently projected Southern Tier to Finger Lakes (greatest chances here for over 0.75 inch). Ptype remains a challenge with waves passing across region and our area right on edge of rain/snow line. Still seems best chances for mainly rain will be along NY/PA state line Monday afternoon while best chances for ptype remaining mainly snow the whole event will be across North Country. Plenty of wiggle room in between these areas with isothermal profile aloft. Difference of only a degree or two at the sfc will make big difference. Forecast soundings and blended model probabilities point to mainly a rain versus snow issue instead of much freezing rain or sleet. In terms of snow amounts, could see several inches of wet snow where ptype remains snow on northern edge of the heavier precip shield. Then, even as initial system is exiting Monday evening with sfc low heading off Mid Atlantic, there are signs of secondary wave sliding across (varying extent/intensity in the models) as northern stream shortwave trough arrives that would bring another period of snow. Increased pops some late Monday night into Tuesday, but probably not enough if these trends continue.

GFS 18z pretty much has nothing on Monday now, similar to the icon..

These are actually free all the time, who would of known lol

Sunday night...the cold front noted above should either by just about overhead by nightfall or quickly moving east through WNY and CNY. Dry and cooler air will follow along with diminishing winds. However, the next system will also be rapidly approaching, with a renewed chance for precipitation by daybreak Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Slowly gaining forecast confidence with the next system for the start next week as latest model guidance packages are trending toward more of a consensus. Current thinking with this system is the stalled frontal boundary from the previous low, will stall southeast of the region (somewhere between the Catskill Mountains and the Eastern Seaboard). As noted in previous scenarios,this set up would support an all snow scenario however precipitation type still remains of question at this time. Now, arrival time of the cold air will become the deciding factor of precipitation type. This being said, while some discrepancies continue to lie between the different model guidance packages the overall trend has the cold air starting to arrive Monday morning across the northern portions of the area. Cold air will continue to advect southward across the region throughout the rest of the day Monday and Monday Night. What this boils down to, is a mishmash of precipitation types, with mainly snow across the North Country, a mix of snow and rain across most of the CWA, and plain rain across the Southern Tier through out the daytime Monday. Then, with the system sliding by to the southeast of the region and as nightfall with cold air continuing to advect in all precipitation will switch over to be just snow Monday night.

Lol 939mb..

Some more snow sneaks into the area on Tuesday..

Euro

Actually it's not terrible but the timing is lol

Ukie looked pretty cold but 6hr precipitation rates were meh lol Some enhancement on the SS..

Precipitation trend on the GFS.. Drying out with the Weak/farther south solution..

Canadian kind of similar to the GFS.. How much of this sticks would be a different story lol

GFS 12z Kuchera ratios little less than 10-1..

Euro was farther north once again for Monday, brings mixing up to around the thruway corridor..

GFS looked solid for Monday/Tuesday, cutting it close though lol

I do haha..At least most of the games..They usually come on in the evening right around dinner time lol So it's something to look forward to each night for me..