wolfie09

Which is funny because their favorite model has that over me lol

46° and rain, nearing 0.40 on the day..

Definitely Dave but it's the frame before that, that gets a little dicey for CNY.. But it's not the worst thing in the world lol

Damn you PW..

GFS pushing the warm layer a little farther north as well.. Still in good shape as of now..

Solid Low and high end..

Yeah but they will call it 5"-10" and it will be an advisory lol

You can see the euro robs all of our moisture to the coastal..

Go big or go home bro lol Nam gives you double what the euro shows, so what if we hear a few pellets haha

LR 3k.. Pretty similar to the 12k at this hour, maybe slightly faster, 1mb stronger..

Looks like the icon from a couple days ago lol Making it to CNY before it transfers..

Happens every storm once the NAM gets into range..

Not a huge difference in track but mix line pushed farther north this run .. Still not totally in its "good" range though..

Overall will have snow amounts through Friday within the advisory range for this system. Sleet and any freezing rain to the south will hold snow amounts down across the Southern Tier. These type of system`s also have a tendency have a shorter period of snowfall as a secondary surface low forms off the coastline and associated lift with the primary low diminishes. The position of the surface low close by us within a progressive flow aloft does not lend to any large snow accumulations from the deformation band. Highest snow totals may end up east of Lake Ontario where a greater SWE will occur with the high to the north maintaining a cold lower layer, and also along the southern Lake Ontario shoreline where lake enhancement may add a few extra inches of snow to bring the greatest snow totals for our region.

Euro

Ukie is known to include sleet as snow.. Granted I didn't check lol

Starting to rain..

Sizzle sizzle..Up to 48° here... KSyr is getting the death southerly flow lol More of an ESE wind here ..

Ukie is the least favorable verbatim for NC NY..(Compared to other 12z guidance).. Looking like a 5"-8" or so at 10-1..

Canadian

Like delta says, you can't just worry about the L..It's a broad circulation..