franklin NCwx

12 minutes ago, LiQuiDBuD said:

Thanks neighbor! At the ripe old age of 41 it's difficult to stay up much later than that.

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Lol...I'm there with you at 40

Just now, LiQuiDBuD said:

This is me lazily asking the board what the expected showtime is tomorrow? Possibly an early finger of moisture to give us a few flakes? Will we get to see flakes without staying up until the wee hours?

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Start around 9 or 10 for us

48 hours until go time!

Theme of the models today is for a faster system. 

1 hour ago, LiQuiDBuD said:

Boyer is adamant that "this is not like '93 folks!"

Evidently he's been getting lots of people asking that? I mean it's an impactful storm, but obviously not even close to '93.

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Lol...dude went from nothing yesterday to "its not 93"! 

10 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Too many live and die by each model turn and should enjoy the madness    

There is also a group that live and die by the icon and nam

Crush job on the 18z rgem

1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

48hr 18z HRRR has the 5h low over Dallas...??? That's way farther south and west of most guidance.  Also very positive tilted/sheared. I've never followed the "long range" Hrrr; is it garbage?

Its garbage at any range 

15 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

Yep, that's what I was mentioning earlier.  Fortunately for me, it seems Black Mountain is too far east to feel the severe effects of it.  If you ever get a chance to see it, the Visitor Center at Gorges State Park has a great exhibit demonstrating the differences in precipitation for the SW mountain counties.  Buncombe County is almost a desert by comparison to Jackson, Transylvania, and Henderson.  The Visitor Center's 3-D image of the area shows the high peaks all around Buncombe with Asheville nestled down in the bottom.  They also have video demonstrations of how the storms travel up and over the mountains, skipping the Asheville bowl.  It's quite informative, if you are into weather, and I assume we are, if we are on this site. 

Asheville is the driest part of the state and the wettest is about 40 miles away as the crow flies. Pretty amazing 

Just now, calculus1 said:

March 93 is the winner for me too, but that was in Lenoir, Caldwell County -- 18+ inches.

Once in a generation storm. Would love to experience with my kids.

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

March 93 was the most impactful in McDowell in my lifetime, Jan 96 was a good storm too. December 09 and 2018 were also up there with high totals. 

Yeah, January 96 was a good one too

15 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

I'll admit, having lived in NC for 40+ winters, haven't seen many tracks right up MYR-PGV-ORF 

They're rare but they happen.  The elusive I-95 runner is a unicorn.  I think March 93 was the last one.

11 minutes ago, WxKnurd said:

What’s the all-timer for populated portions of Haywood? I’m thinking it has to be March ‘30 (I think) I was reading about recently. 30”+ Fines Creek and Crabtree if I remember correctly. 

Probably March 93. That was the biggest storm of my lifetime.  Close to 3 feet in cashiers 

Hopefully the gfs calmed some nerves 

5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

It's thermals are crap too though, I really hope this isn't a trend with the Hi res models..

850 Temps stay below freezing even into Hayesville/Murphy.  Not worried about it. When the 850 line stops at the Balsams, then it's time to get worried. 

Rgem was a good run. Low transfers to Florence SC from Central bama.

4 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Yeah we don't even get 5" of snow here before it turns over to sleet and freezing rain on the nam

That track is not an ice or sleet track for NC. That's either snow or rain, and in this case I would say all snow

1 minute ago, Hvward said:

Low track is what we need to be focusing on with NAM.

And the bowling ball coming through N GA

Lol...probably gonna be 48 hours of snow on the nam

Crazy totals coming with this run

6 minutes ago, Summey said:

Send the wife to the in-laws & stay home.  Win-win.

Head to the casino and hangout there

15 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

I would love your guys' perspective on this.  Here's my dilemma:

• There's nothing like seeing it snow/sleet/whatever in your own backyard, and Hickory has a good chance to get walloped.
• My in-laws have welcomed us to come spend the weekend with them in Black Mountain (due east of Asheville on I-40, just up Old Fort Mountain).

I think Black Mountain has a much better chance of remaining snow for the entire event (2400 feet elevation), with little chance of mixing in sleet (at least at this point in the forecast).  However, Buncombe County traditionally is the driest county in the state and often has precip minima there compared to surrounding areas.  Ignoring other factors such as my kids playing with cousins in the snow in Black Mountain, which experience would you prefer?

1. Staying at home and seeing 6+ inches of snow, with an inch or snow of sleet, followed by a deform band with more snow IMBY, OR
2. Traveling to in-laws and seeing a pure snowstorm with likely 12+ inches of snow on the ground, but they might get downsloped a bit by surrounding mountains.

As you can probably guess, my wife doesn't even understand why it's a dilemma, and she's like, "Let's go to my parents and have fun with the family there".  But there's something so special about seeing it snow, during the day, all day, below freezing, in your own backyard.  And, I'm a sucker for taking records and measurements IMBY, as you can see from my signature line. 

What are your thoughts?

 

Probably best going to the inlaws. 

This is  turning into March 93 little brother 

3 minutes ago, DaculaWeather said:

Man, I bet I haven't been here in 5-6 years but I still see the same people! :-)

Weenie club for life!

Definitely improved in the upper levels but the surface is a disaster!