franklin NCwx

1 hour ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Problem is — for those still seeking snow — by the time you get into March it takes really anomalous cold to get an event. Average high at RDU is in the 60s in a little over a week.

Not everyone lives in Raleigh.  

On 2/17/2023 at 6:43 PM, BooneWX said:

I know this is an out there sort of comment but is anyone mildly concerned the snowfall in the mountains tonight is toxic?

No

58 minutes ago, eyewall said:

This is the winter from hell. We are going to be in the mid 80's on Thursday.

That's 100xs better than 30s and rain

45 minutes ago, 1bert1 said:

I noticed most of us in this thread joined in 2010. Is that when Eastern Weather changed to American Weather?

Sounds about right 

10 minutes ago, Sw NC weather said:

Models seem to struggle with deform bands / dry slots. So who knows we definitely still have a chance for a 2-4” event to happen down this way. With that being said it’s probably dead right and will be lucky to get a dusting.

As we pickup 5 plus inches of rain over the next week

3 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Who knows if we have enough time to trend far enough but all guidance has ticked back south and east this morning. If it goes far enough that deform band will have a much better angle of approach into the area. Things are bleak, but I'm gonna stay hopeful for a surprise given that the dynamics are at least in place to produce one.

Hopefully it shifts south about 100 miles. March 09 did that at the last minute and became vertically stacked as it ran up 85

Still a dry slot showing up on the 12z models for the southern mtns. Amazing we can have 80-100" of rain fall almost every year, but it's a struggle for 1" of that to fall as snow

Flood watches 

Improvement on the sref

3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Hi Res GFS looks pretty bad too through 60. It also has ice for mountains.

The ice is bogus...going to be rain or snow

Great nam run!

Qpf won't blossom until the trough goes negative tilt

4 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

That model has been absolute shit this winter. It is garbage in my opinion.  

Lol...Are you tracking rain storms now?

27 minutes ago, MotoWeatherman said:

Warm nose will potentially affect northern mountains the most for a period which sucks. 

That's the opposite of what normally happens 

1 minute ago, lilj4425 said:

Congrats Atlanta? 

More like Blairsville 

Nam likes the southern and central mtns this run. As long as we keep that upper low track we should be good

4 minutes ago, Sw NC weather said:

Still turns into a good back end snow. 1/2” of ice to start with for us.

I don't believe the ice, most likely rain to snow

1 minute ago, Sw NC weather said:

Maybe not looks like a lot of mixing early on.

Looks similar to its 12z run. Fun just starting at 60 with the negative tilt

4 minutes ago, Upstate Tiger said:

I know many of us in the south get frustrated when we do not see snow when it is forecast, especially since it has become so rare in recent years (or decades).  I look at like this.  I am probably the biggest winnie on here but if there is no snow this weekend, so be it.  

I'll be disappointed but it was fun tracking the last couple of days.  It's a welcome diversion from all the serious things we deal with in life.  I will just move on to looking for the next threat.  If nothing happens this year, I will start reading ENSO predictions in June and start tracking again next fall. 

I just feel for the younger posters under 40 who did not get to experience some of the great winters of the 70's and 80's around here.  But even then, a good year was 2-3 events.  The climate has changed.  In next 20 years or so when I am gone, you younger posters will probably be experiencing another shift.  That's what the weather does.  That's what makes it so fun to follow.

I disagree...wnc had a great run from 09 to 2017. We had plenty of crappy winters before that including in the 90s

1 minute ago, SnowDawg said:

With models now showing most if not all of our snow coming from a deform band type feature as the upper level energy swings through behind the surface low, I guess we pretty much wanna go all in on as strong and dynamic of a system as we can get, even if it means more rain from the beginning of the storm. 

Exactly!

Lines up with the nam well!

I would rather roll with a stronger system like the nam as opposed to weaker.

Lol

18z nam coming in with a big hit!

34 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

March 2009 was a disaster here with downsloping. Less than an inch of snow while Morganton had 4-6 and Shelby had 6-8 or more...

No moisture here, only flurries for us during that one