The SE ridge is the only feature of this storm that immobile, incompressible and inevitable. The track of the high maybe within 300 miles of the axis of heaviest snowfall
Models are showing a dryslot near I81 where the coldest air would be. Kind of a screwjob until you get to central PA on the GFS or upstate NY on the CMC.
Euro just misses with the weenie fantasy KU storm day 8 extrapolated from the ICON and Navegem. In pretty good agreement with the CMC though. Just need the PV to linger back a little longer and the southern stream a bit less amped.
Glad to see mostly hits or misses to the south. Also think there will be a double jackpot for this event. 1 in the western mountains from upslope flow and the other along the Delmarva from the coastal storm.
I will be really upset if we end this epic blocking period without an Epic snowstorm in our region. It's been -NAO all of January and likely most of FEB too. If we just get nickel dimed and fringed, then this winter is huge disappointment.