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Amped

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Everything posted by Amped

  1. Most winters aren't nice to DC, but this one hates them the most.
  2. Euro just has like an hour or two of freezing drizzle.
  3. .02 maybe even worse. More likely to be overlooked by road crews only expecting some spotty freezing drizzle. Happened in Kansas city in 2019
  4. Euro also trended east with the Day7-8 ice to rain storm. We get more sleet now.
  5. The SE ridge is the only feature of this storm that immobile, incompressible and inevitable. The track of the high maybe within 300 miles of the axis of heaviest snowfall
  6. If this is a classic Nina screw job for us, then OKC STL and CHI is the likely jackpot. Maybe add Dallas this time since the cold air is so far south.
  7. SE ridge is just too strong for a snow event next week. No matter how you configure the PV, there's not working around it.
  8. Euro has mostly freezing rain for the day 4-5 storm. This has some nasty icing potential.
  9. Yeah 500mb looks great but surface high maybe a bit too far south. Kind of a map you wanna make a "What will it do next?" pool for.
  10. Models are showing a dryslot near I81 where the coldest air would be. Kind of a screwjob until you get to central PA on the GFS or upstate NY on the CMC.
  11. CMC/GFS look suppressed with the day 7 storm, last night was an amped up firehose. Edit: check out the run to run consistency day 6.
  12. Euro just misses with the weenie fantasy KU storm day 8 extrapolated from the ICON and Navegem. In pretty good agreement with the CMC though. Just need the PV to linger back a little longer and the southern stream a bit less amped.
  13. Glad to see mostly hits or misses to the south. Also think there will be a double jackpot for this event. 1 in the western mountains from upslope flow and the other along the Delmarva from the coastal storm.
  14. There going to be a historic snow and historic ice somewhere in the eastern half of the country. Just don't know where yet.
  15. Great run, I sill want another tick or two south before the north trend starts. Gotta have some insurance.
  16. GFS keeps parading lows out of the gulf and up the stationary front.
  17. I'd rather see this over Norfolk to give us a chance at surviving the north trend.
  18. I think if the NAO holds through mid March , I don't think 3 6+ events with 2 of them being 10+ is that unreasonable to ask for.
  19. At least he's mostly on the NE subforum this year.
  20. While the GFS Para is broken, might as well take advantage of the opportunity and move the NAM to it.
  21. I will be really upset if we end this epic blocking period without an Epic snowstorm in our region. It's been -NAO all of January and likely most of FEB too. If we just get nickel dimed and fringed, then this winter is huge disappointment.
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