Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Of course there was a shark. It happens every storm.
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I hope nobody's there.
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Yes landfall is present intensity unless post cyclone report in January finds enough evidence to change it. Doubtful they will.
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There's an outer eyewall trying to form on radar. If you look closely you can see it on recon data. It's way too late for it to kick in prior to landfall though.
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Big lightning burst in the eastern eyewall
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People are missing the squiggly band on radar too. Edit: here's a better shot of it. Can't say I've seen that before
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Anyone else notice the crazy looking supercell on IR to the west of the storm? That thing deserves a name also.
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It's not wobbling much on radar.
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955mb on the drop. Only lose another 53 to catch Katrina and 55 to catch Camille.
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I'm guessing it's between 945mb-950mb. Probably 105-115kt. I'm more willing to be wrong than most though.
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Hot towers going up on all sides. Radar confirms that there's a small eye.
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That's the cue for it to form a pinhole eye and increase 40kts in 6 hrs.
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The open eye is misleading. There's a robust circular CDO on IR which is probably more important than the exact eye shape, which changes every 10 minutes.
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It's closely following Laura's intensity VS time curve.
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There a decent percentage of storms that start RI at around 975mb
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Looks like another convective burst just starting up around the eye. This one looks a more circular at least for now.
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The windfield still looks a bit expanded. Only see one eyewall though which is a good sign.
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Approach from the southeast, make a sharp 90 degree turn right over the city and exits to the northeast. A track from the south that goes right over the eastern part of the city would be a close second though.
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The forecast track for Ida is far from a worst case scenario for New Orleans. I think the new Levee system assuming it was built properly can handle the surge. One good thing about the west track is that winds won't come out of the north and slam lake Pontchartrain into the city.
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Why do these things always gotta wait until they're out of radar range and there's no recon to intensify rapidly?
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Radar improved dramatically over the last 1.5 hrs. The centers are close to aligned and the core is surrounded by a lot more precip.
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I don't really care about recon anyway until it gets across Cuba. Land has put Ida's RI plans on hold until tomorrow.
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Recon is circling an outer band for some reason.
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The HWRF was too low with intensity for the first time this year.
