Amped

Improved for the NW crew. About the same everywhere else.

Impossible to tell from the final totals map.

The GFS has a NW-SE orientation of the heaviest precip which means it's an inverted troff and not a deform band. Euro has an actual SW-NE deform band CMC has both a deform band and inverted troff in the huge blob it spits out.

The certain thing about this storm is we're likely getting 3-5" from the first half of it. There is a lot less confidence in the second half of the storm which will make or break it. This is the part I am pretty nervous about. These coastal tucks are pretty hard to pull off, especially with a Miller B in an amplifying flow. The jet is only going to stay favorably oriented for so long before it arcs too much. If the low escapes to the northeast this will be a fairly large bust. We will be waiting for 12 hrs for a deform band that is just 6 hrs of on and off flurries. I'm not expecting it to be that bad, but I am still leaning conservatively with the second part of the storm.

We all know that if we were actually getting a 30" snowstorm the 18z NAM would be showing at least 60"

RGEM only has 30" this run. Baby step cave in.

List of 2 part events since I've been in MD: All had a long dryslot and or mixing in the middle. 2/9-2/10 1/26/11 2/13/2014 1/13/2019

I'd keep it 8-12 along I 95 until NNJ. Just too much room for a dryslot and mixing. to go with a blockbuster there. Going to need major tuck to get it.

Less of a dryslot than 00z, but the track and evolution look really similar.

Only the RGEM it's 3X as much for a lot of us.

Every model has a more robust NS vortex coming down from Canada. This is similar to what happened with the December 2003 storm if it verifies. I was waiting for it but didn't think it would suddenly appear on one run. 6z runs are going to be telling to see if this is real or a hiccup.

CMC is best case scenario for everyone. Form VA to ME just about. It's the only model showing a HECS.

CMC tucks us long time this run.

Nam doesn't need a reason, it just spits out random blobs.

Better than 00z, but nowhere near as good as 12z yesterday. Not stalling east of Cape May anymore.

OMG just saw the 6z Navgem. . Makes every other model look like 10 minutes of flurries.

This all comes down to how deep the eastern armpit of the omega block is.

Lol this looks like the run 3 days from the 2016 blizzard that gave only gave Hagerstown 1"

Synoptically we should have heavy snow at 78hrs That massive convective blob offshore might be causing some subsidence in the cold sector.

Euro west with the confluence again

That is odd but I am not convinced that is the issue. You can see differences in the 200mb winds at hr 90 before the vortex

Now would be the time for him to secretly sell all his shares in the suppressed solution.

CCB is 105-126hrs. Possibly starts a bit earlier in Northern spots. That's plenty of time for a BECS.

LLJ pivots over us. Should it choose to have a deform band, we are in the perfect spot.

850 winds at 84hrs is a decent change. coastal is forming faster.