Amped

The right people will never see this video.

Its essentially just an ocean effect snow event now.

Hugging the nbm

The 500mb evolution is pretty locked in at this point. Connective feedback dynamics are gonna control the differences in outcomes between models and runs.

Think its safe to say the 18z Euro was probably a hiccup. No other model is showing snow for NYC.

Already not liking this goofus run at 24.

Rgem almost identical also. I dont know how the gfs and euro managed to shift so far from their prior runs at 18z at this stage of the game.

Yea a little more separation between the eastern and western lobes of the PV. That gap will help. Edit: Made almost no difference.

It develops a connective feedback low well offshore and trys to rotate it into the coast of Maine. Must have stole a page from the Cmc's playbook.

Wants to keep teasing us some more.

I'm never looking at the GFS again, until the 276hr blizzard shows up on tomorrow's 18z run.

That was a good 75mile shift in the wrong direction.

Not too great so far.

Sorry my geography of that area is off.

Thats a flip the bus solution. Richmond, Philly, NYC, Boston get 10". We get .5"

Ill take a crack at it. I think its based on having a zonal flow vs an amped up flow. Zonal flows don't generate as much precip and latent heat across the gulf coast states, so they don't build heights off the east coast, hence not as much time to trend north. A couple other issues I can think of that cause south trends. 1. Northern stream kickers, which cause troffs forming in the ms valley to become positively tilted and swept offshore before they can develop. 2. Energy cuts off over the southwest US or Baja instead of ejecting with the troff in the rockies. This happened a few times in 2022. The result is either no storm or one that doesn't organize until way too late. 3. The retrograding ridge from January 2021. That was a unique one.

The 1/2018 bomb cyclone was a similar setup (except for NC). NYC and Boston got about 10" from that one.

No southern stream to pull up gulf moisture like 2010. No northern stream to tug the low north like January 2000. The 500mb low doesn't track over us like the PD1. We go home empty handed.

Starting to lose confidence of major snow for the metros. Yeah maybe a decent event for NC, DelMarva and Cape Cod. DC, Baltimore,Philly and NYC metros are probably getting the finger. The solution from Sunday night that had 2 feet in Harrisburg and 4 feet in Garrett County is definitely not coming back.

Thats an impressive shallow warm core 22mb pressure drop over like 50 miles.

500mb low track over SC is responsible for a lot of that. We need to bring it north.

And its well northwest at 72.

Hr 60 looks further northwest. Closed over Northern lake Michigan

We just need the gfs to trend west by the same amount and we got it

I love how the closed 500mb low dissappears over Ontario, only to reform over southern Michigan 24 hrs later. Thanks for making the setup unnecessarily complicated.