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Amped

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Everything posted by Amped

  1. Amped
    Todays recon and 18z GFS/GEFS mostly eliminate the possibility of any short deepening in the short term. This still has a chance to develop once it gets into the gulf in a few days.
  2. Amped
    Okay that's literally the spot where I saw the swirl/ funnel that I estimated 2000ft off the ground in yesterday's post.
  3. Amped
    Ignore the troll. This isn't the plains, so one tornado isn't a bust. I was impressed just to see supercells with a strong hook.
  4. Amped
    Saw rotation in the clouds as the storm went over Columbia. Guessing it was 2000ft off the ground.
  5. Amped
    Looks like whatever couplet is headed down 70 towards Ellicott City
  6. Amped
    Latest Recon Pass 1003mb 45kt. Not a cane . Was fun while it lasted.
  7. Amped
    It is moving WNW @ 29mph, which is fast for this latitude. Would explain the 50kt difference in windspeed across the eyewall. HWRF is developing a small cat4 between Jamaica and Cuba. Of course this is highly land interaction dependent.
  8. Amped
    One of the most lopsided hurricanes I've seen.
  9. Amped
    Raining hard with lots of thunder here in Columbia. Looks south of Ellicott city so far thankfully. Going to be ugly From BWI to College Park. This stuff ain't moving.
  10. Amped
    Convective setups almost always verify southeast of modeled. Some by a little and some by a lot. Any sort of linear mode or convective blob quickly inoculates most of the potential for the NW part of the high risk area. East coast snowstorms are the opposite, They almost always end up NW of modeled. Some by a little and some by a lot.
  11. Amped
    Tried to eat outside cause it was so warm. Very bad idea.
  12. Amped
    I'd watch the cell behind it closely in downtown ATL. It's moving over the same feeder band.
  13. Amped
    AL and N GA it looks like. Linear or blob mode over MS and NW AL.
  14. Amped
    Didn't they already lose power for like a month in central MS?
  15. Amped
    As a result of model errors canceling themselves out. It's happens sometimes with east coast systems also.
  16. Amped
    Models were 5-6" too high with the snow yesterday and about 3-5" too low today. Looks like they overestimated the SE flow regime and underestimated the N flow regime on the south side of the CCB. Heavy snow started right as the 700mb winds started cranking out of the north. The storm did not really track further north than predicted. Palmer divide was always going to be the southern cutoff.
  17. Amped
    Looking at the radar overnight, it seems possible. A band set up from DIA-Ft Collins and missed the rest of the city and metro.
  18. Amped
    DIA is now the highest total in the metro east of the mountains. Over twice as much as some other parts of the city. I'd feel a little bad if I was a chaser who got in a car after flying in.
  19. Amped
    Best vid I've seen so far. Black Hawk, CO
  20. Amped
    HRRR showing another 12" for the Denver Metro. The 18=24" forecast will turn out fine if that verifies.
  21. Amped
    Para gfs qpf bombs Estes park during the next 6 hrs.
  22. Amped
    Day 10 Euro puts this storm to shame.
  23. Amped
    Some day they should invent a snow stick that can be read from far away. NAM 3km overdoes downsloping
  24. Amped
    5 more days till the v16 becomes op. These are some of the last chunks gfsv15 will ever blow. It has both way too much and way to little on this storm.
  25. Amped
    Euro has been pretty darn consistent with amounts. 18-24 again this run.
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