Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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There's a possible Fujiwara effect with Nora, assuming Nora hit land and dissipate.
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Central LA overnight Sunday seems to be the landfall consensus. CMC, RGEM,ICON, GFS. 12z ECMWF is in west central LA but 00z run not out yet. If it comes east by about 50-75 miles then there's a pretty impressive. consensus for 108hrs out. 00z UKMET also in western LA, not bad considering it has a known southwest west bias and I would expect it to be in Mexico at this range.
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GFS and Icon have a decent storm. CMC and Euro are a big sheared mess.
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971mb is actually one of the strongest TCs I've seen on the CMC. Looks enormous also.
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I think Isaias played a pretty big role in the over-hyping of this storm. It didn't really look too bad on most models runs over the last few days.
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SW CT is in an epic dryslot
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I'm still waiting for the 925mb gulf of Maine hybrid that the GFS showed last year.
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Someones getting over 12 feet if that's all snow and 20:1 ratios.
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Okay it's safe to ask WTF is going on in NYC
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Nice little convective burst now. It's probably crossing the gulf stream.
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From now on I'm replying "Don't relocate during the eye" instead of "Stay safe Josh" before every storm.
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Must be a bad storm, it wiped Rhode Island off the map.
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The 18z GFS now shows a western gulf storm day 8-10.
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GFS went east again. Starting to look like more of a Rhode Island storm CT is probably going to be a bust with the wind.
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I don't like his decision to drive through the eye to get the landfall point perfectly. He needs to get too a well built structure with plenty of time to spare and stay put during these types of storms. Better to miss the eye by a few miles than be trapped in rising water on an empty stretch of road in a foreign country. They'll always be another storm. That being said he probably just lost power and internet. He's taken a few days to resurface in past storms.
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Agreed cancel all hurricane warnings. Verification will be confined to one or two stations at best. New Haven will have a hard time even getting TS conditions.
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Seems to be the consensus of 00z so far. If the Euro supports it NHC probably needs to shift the warnings east into RI/MA at 5am. Could probably downgrade to a TS warning west of Old Saybrook
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Odd that the pressure stays constant and winds in the NE eyewall increase 29kts form 2.5 hrs ago.
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50/50 on whether the eye forms prior to landfall
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Compared to Irene, isiais and Sandy, this storm is going to have a much smaller and more symmetric wind field.
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Looking at the IR, it appears the QPF bomb is detonating
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The name.
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The GFS is showing a huge precip donut forming around Grace 12hrs before landfall. Likely means rapid intensification up until landfall despite a bit of northerly shear. Possible that it becomes the first major of the season.
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990mb on the drop. Ernesto 2011 got down to 975mb in the hours before yucatan landfall. Grace doesn't look that organized though.
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Finally convection over the center. Almost exactly 12 hrs from landfall. Could be some impressive deepening in the next 12hrs though.
