Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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Looks quite different to the trained eye. Much stronger offshore flow. That's Probably a 960mb bomb and a Hecs at 276 or maybe just offshore.
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Don't look at the NAM positive snow depth change map.
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Monitoring a potential important TV to East Coastal storm: Jan 17
Amped replied to Typhoon Tip's topic in New England
Euro has a string of weaker ones. Could lead to some pretty big gusts along the coast. -
850 Low level jet it cranking, very far south, a sign this will probably be a historic large swath of heavy snow. We probably won't be in it though,
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Nashville gets Named on this run.
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The 18z Icon match the Euro and did this also. Seems there's no avoiding that track, it stays further south initially and the HP moves offshore when the low's further south and has more time to pull it back west before it gets here. We need it to trend 300 miles ENE to make a big difference which doesn't happen with disturbances tracking across the gulf coast. That's why I gave up on big snows for 95% of the area this morning.
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You don't see a 980 low over hagerstown often.
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Almost ready to give up on this. The shortwave isn't going to trend east, and the high isn't going to stick around. Likely a lakes /Midwest snowstorm. Only hope is if the shortwave cuttsoff over the southwest or something ejects ahead of it.
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Yeah but the low is further west so the spacing isn't changed. Edit: Nevermind it got worse. Going even further west.
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For all the uncertainty in the ensembles, GFS OP looks like it;s headed for the same solution as 18z. Nothing major changed through 84hrs.
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I've only seen an apps runner so far on models. No Cleveland superbomb solutions yet.
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The high is in a similar spot to the GFS. The LP in the south is about 5mb weaker with much less return flow coming from the gulf.
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Nothing off the table, could track easily track over Detroit, or end up a cutoff low over Arizona. There isn't anything really pinning this pattern down.
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6z also had a pretty big disconnect between the GFS and the GEFS. Looks a little fishy. Time to put more trust in the EPS
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About 10 more runs until it's over Chicago.
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I'll add 1/4/94 to the list
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Now it December 2010s into NJ entertaining
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Got a high in the perfect spot, a 50/50 low and the shortwave is a well defined 540-546 split. This is usually how a KU storm starts, not saying it will happen though.
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CMC is quicker and drops the 500mb low right over us. I don't see how that spacing is going to work for anything more than a clipper though.
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Just needs to dig further west so it doesn't get shredded by the low off the coast.
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6z gefs has a few decent hits day 6-7 also.
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JFK: 8.1" on .9 precip but Flushing Meadows 7.9" on .53" precip. Didn't happen they were both along the same band. The .53" is probably correct for both sites. Gives about 15:1 ratios.
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Got 3-4 on the ground, plus an additional 12" of virga.
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Always amazes me how this much precip can evaporate.
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Delmarva stuff starting to breakout
