Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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I am fully prepared for this to come a lot closer than we all thought but still no cigar.
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18z Euro 500mb evolution is very similar to the ICON and CMC. There are differences in the precip amounts surface low tracks and intensities, but 500mb looks pretty close.
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Same heights out ahead, and its not digging further south or negative tilting earlier.
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It did come east a little. Its halfway between 12z and 6z.
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Looks Identical. 1009mb over Charlston.
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It's 'Party's Over' time
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18z is gonna be a 50% cave at least. Its already late in the game for it to be doing this.
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That Jma run is from yesterday.
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Nah its a 2-4" inverted troff consolation prize.
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Concentric deathbands
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Thats one tick away from 30" from Washington to Boston. Too bad its an outlier and its probably smoking something.
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Folks
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So Ukmet, Icon and Euro dont have much of anything. Gfs, Cmc and the AI models at least give us a moderate event.
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The GFS shows 2 feet in Sailsbury, what could go wrong?
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The Gfs stalls the 500mb low over Ohio and then tracks it down over Virginia Beach. Not gonna help if its over Central PA.
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But every member is southeast of the OP, which is pretty close to the southern part of the delmarva.
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Gefs looks slightly northwest.
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It held. Microscopic differences compared to 18z.
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Yeah there's a little more ridging building over the west coast too, but slightly lower heights ahead may offset.
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00z runs of the gfs cmc and icon will be telling. They're either going to trend 50 miles nw and put us back in the game or 50 miles SE and take us out of it. I'm fully prepared for the later of the two.
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Happy hour goofus
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The happy hour Nam will save us.
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I feel like this is the 3rd time we've seen this script play out in the past 365 days.
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Ouch
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If the 18z Euro is even close to the right idea its a pretty major medium range bust for all other models.
