Amped
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Everything posted by Amped
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The Gfs stalls the 500mb low over Ohio and then tracks it down over Virginia Beach. Not gonna help if its over Central PA.
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But every member is southeast of the OP, which is pretty close to the southern part of the delmarva.
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Gefs looks slightly northwest.
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It held. Microscopic differences compared to 18z.
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Yeah there's a little more ridging building over the west coast too, but slightly lower heights ahead may offset.
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00z runs of the gfs cmc and icon will be telling. They're either going to trend 50 miles nw and put us back in the game or 50 miles SE and take us out of it. I'm fully prepared for the later of the two.
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Happy hour goofus
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The happy hour Nam will save us.
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I feel like this is the 3rd time we've seen this script play out in the past 365 days.
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Ouch
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If the 18z Euro is even close to the right idea its a pretty major medium range bust for all other models.
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No working fine here
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This type of setup is pretty sensitive to a last second amplification.
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Icon closes off a 500mb low over ohio at the last second. Extrapolated it would probably try to hook the coastal back towards long island.
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This storm has much higher heights ahead of it than last February's fish storm or this February's fish storm. Its going to be much harder to suppress.
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Euro has no support from other models. Not even the AI Euro.
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Ukmet just basically keeps a closed 500mb low from the Dakotas to off the Delmarva.
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Thats almost identical to the March 58 map.
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Cmc matches the 00z eps cluster. 978mb over Cape May
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There's like 10 members over Cape May.
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Just really confusing how the models are handling the wave spacing over the Rockies and plains. A lot to sort out, the Euro is the only model with a complete destructive interference cancelation.
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The closest 500mb analogs to this setup are probably March 1958 and December 1992. Not that its going to play out like either of those at the surface.
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970mb offshore with a 1050mb high in central canada. Hopefully those dont trend too much closer together.
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Cmc 1001mb to 979mb in 12hrs
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Closed 500mb low track is awesome on this run. CCB from DC to Boston.
