Amped

The 500mb evolution is pretty locked in at this point. Connective feedback dynamics are gonna control the differences in outcomes between models and runs.

Think its safe to say the 18z Euro was probably a hiccup. No other model is showing snow for NYC.

Already not liking this goofus run at 24.

Rgem almost identical also. I dont know how the gfs and euro managed to shift so far from their prior runs at 18z at this stage of the game.

Yea a little more separation between the eastern and western lobes of the PV. That gap will help. Edit: Made almost no difference.

It develops a connective feedback low well offshore and trys to rotate it into the coast of Maine. Must have stole a page from the Cmc's playbook.

Wants to keep teasing us some more.

I'm never looking at the GFS again, until the 276hr blizzard shows up on tomorrow's 18z run.

That was a good 75mile shift in the wrong direction.

Not too great so far.

Sorry my geography of that area is off.

Thats a flip the bus solution. Richmond, Philly, NYC, Boston get 10". We get .5"

Ill take a crack at it. I think its based on having a zonal flow vs an amped up flow. Zonal flows don't generate as much precip and latent heat across the gulf coast states, so they don't build heights off the east coast, hence not as much time to trend north. A couple other issues I can think of that cause south trends. 1. Northern stream kickers, which cause troffs forming in the ms valley to become positively tilted and swept offshore before they can develop. 2. Energy cuts off over the southwest US or Baja instead of ejecting with the troff in the rockies. This happened a few times in 2022. The result is either no storm or one that doesn't organize until way too late. 3. The retrograding ridge from January 2021. That was a unique one.

The 1/2018 bomb cyclone was a similar setup (except for NC). NYC and Boston got about 10" from that one.

No southern stream to pull up gulf moisture like 2010. No northern stream to tug the low north like January 2000. The 500mb low doesn't track over us like the PD1. We go home empty handed.