HighStakes

16 winters over a 33/34 year span that resulted in single digit amounts is outright atrocious coicidence or not. That can't just be getting unlucky. I understand it's a small sample size but it's the most recent 33 year period in the discussion. Very alarming. I knew DCA has been bad recently but when you see it on the chart it becomes shocking. Very alarming. One can hope hope it's a cyclical type deal but common sense says otherwise.

Flurries and 26.

Very light snow!

Teleconnections off today's 12z Euro look pretty good in the extended. EPO heads towards negative, PNA stays positive while AO and NAO remain neutral to slightly positive. That could work well for us and could ( emphasize could ) lock in for a couple weeks coinciding with our coldest seasonal averages. Fingers crossed for a nice mini heater from second week of through the end of the month. Let's hope indices stay on track.

I think it was 2018/2019 winter also.

Yeah, I forgot which year but it was a recent winter in the last 5 years where we had 2 or 3 juicy systems that took a perfect track and we rained with every one. Nothing on the front end or back end. Just couldn't tap any cold and they all failed.

I think that storm still works because the main show was the deform band that cranked for several hours. I would hope that would still enable temps to crash enough. Now the 1st part of that storm might be a different story. That would probably be rain for areas around the cities.

Single digits by 7 p.m.

Another issue in the passing game often overlooked is that our offense line is built to run block and are generally a poor pass blocking line. Even if we had a better receiving core our QB's would still be under pressure more than not. We rarely form a clean pocket and when we do Huntley has poor awareness and footwork. You dont see him step up or use a subtle side step to avoid pressure. After his first progression he often breaks and leaves the pocket. His arm strength is average and that's being generous. Our receivers are pretty bad and run bad routes but when they are open Huntley doesnt see them. Lamar has his own problems in the passing game but he's far superior to Huntley despite what some people think. It's not even close and that's accounting for Lamar's poor accuracy at times and inconsistent footwork when stepping into his throws. We have no chance without him. I wouldn't discount them from winning a playoff game. Lamar can carry the team for a game especially against a Tennessee or some other average team assuming the knee is healthy enough. Lamar makes enough big play to overcome his poor passing for 1 game but unfortunately not enough to make a run deep into the playoffs.

Weren't you just ready for Spring yesterday?

My goodness!! This run has northern MD in the low 50's at 7 a.m. and 15 degrees at 1 p.m. with snow falling.

By no means was that a good winter but it certainly wasn't the worst. Knowing what we know now considering how difficult it seems to get snow, some of us may sign up for that winter again. As usual it was much better for N and W. December was cold and we missed on a couple chances. There was a decent event on the 19th Of December or thereabouts that produced 2-5 inches and it was a true anafront set-up. Another small system in earlyish January produced 1-3 inches. Suburbs got 4-8 from a decent storm the 3rd week of January. February was bad but we just missed on an early February storm where temps were just a touch too warm but I still got 2-3 living in Reisterstown at the time. Westminster/Manchester got 4-7. Then there was a moderate event 3rd week of February that produced 3-6 and it was a cold storm too for later in the season. Won't mention March for obvious reasons.

See my post in the other thread. Significant snow not so much but many examples of quick hitters behind fronts. More so N and W but still cities on south saw a change and accumulation. I listed a few dates but there are actually several others I didn't mention.

A burst of snow is very possible if not likely with this set up. Could be a quick 1-2 if not a bit more. There are actually quite a few examples of strong fronts that had a couple hours of snow on the other side of the front even into the cities. Notably 3/2005, 3/1995, 11/1995, 3/1999, 4 /2000 etc. As recent as last March saw heavy rain change to snow so it happens more frequently than realized.

No he's not. Very awkward.

We're a team full of number 3 and 4 receivers.

Where would we be without Tucker!

Just a few days ago the EPO was forecasted to be around neutral to slightly positive but now it's forecasted to go strongly positive. Tough to get any arctic air in the U.S. despite the other indices being favorable. Good news is that it look short lived as EPO should head down after right the new year.

Especially withe EPO going solidily positive right after Christmas.

Yesterday he was concerned that his flip to warm may be short lived as the EPO hints at going negative in early January. He says the possibility is growing that another severe arctic shot between the 5th and 20th of January. Compares this year to his 2010/2011 forecast when he called for the end to fast and winter stayed strong into February. He's all over the place. The day before yesterday he was on the warm train completely and said this was a 1989/1990 and 1964/1965 winter that after the cold December it ended for good in January.

Thank you to all those who tell us to keep expectations in check and don't get our hopes too high for a storm that is 168 HOURS AWAY!!! I definitely needed to be brought back to reality.

Pretty good glaze on everything with icy spots on pavements.

I agree. My bar is always set at a reasonable level and my location is one the better within the forum. If we're fortunate for the pattern to come to fruition and we get a solid 2-3 week window, I would be very pleased with 2 or 3 measurable events. Let's say something along the lines of what you described above. A nice front end thump followed by arctic air and maybe a nice wave that's all snow that produces several more inches and if we can get lucky enough for a 3rd event then another moderate front end thump would be ideal. It would be nice to have the cold allow for an extended period of snow cover before the pattern flips. The one caveat I would say would be some of the looks were getting in the 10-15 really do enhance the chance for something major. I did notice that the last few runs of the teleconnections on the EURO are popping the EPO neutral to slightly positive around Christmas but the other indices look great.

That's right! I recorded 24 for the 2 part event. 16 inches with the heavy snow overnight into the morning. Then 1st part ended as some drizzle/ mist. Part 2 was very heavy snow for several hours that evening resulting in 8 more inches. Pretty sure this area bulleyed part 2. If I remember correctly losetoa6 got roughly only 4 inches compared to the 8 here. Sharp cutoff just west of Westminster and just east of the Baltimore/ Carroll county line.

And please stay healthy for the remainder of the season. Let's see what we can do with a decent O-line and starting backfield despite our inept passing game.