HighStakes

Solid inch or more in town.

Hopefully this is the rare storm where everybody in the forum sees at least 2 inches.

Snowing lightly.

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Exactly. Its a 1-3/2-4 event we should all be happy AF to get if it happens. 

Absolutely!

Mike Masco FTW!

If other models continue to move west and that is the ultimate result the GFS won't figure it out until tomorrow maybe as late as 0z.

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Idk if you remember but it was the night of dec 23rd or xmas eve IIRC that the 18z runs started coming way west and then NCEP said there were initialization errors. Then when 0z miraculously kept coming west it was on. 

It was the 18z run on Christmas Eve. Best run for NW of Baltimore. 

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

He’s so hard to read sometimes. In the early Jan events he discounted every snowier model and went low. Now he’s showing the euro, that’s performed horribly this winter…and also just happens to show the snowiest amounts. I don’t get it.

Ava is cautious and very good at laying out the possibilities, but will often have to follow Toms lead on his forecasts. She went low in the early events too and got a lot of crap on social media about it afterwards. Grr.

Tom has been there for 33 years. When he retires they should make Ava the chief meteorologist. I wonder if she is still there when Tom leaves if the station manager will have the guts to make that move. Not sure if he'll retire anytime soon though. He keeps himself in great shape and looks good for his age. I've always liked him a lot but Ava brings a different energy to the broadcast plus she is getting very knowledgeable with experience.

On a side note Bob Turk has been at WJZ since 1973 the year I was born. 50 year Anniversary for him next year. Unbelievable!

6 minutes ago, mappy said:

If we fail again I may start to blame you and your move 

Lol. I was thinking about this earlier. He kept saying he was a jinx now its come to fruition. His move sabotaged our winter. His next move might have to be to Boston. 

Just now, vastateofmind said:

I know he's usually an easy target, especially in this sub. But dear GOD, that map and its "legend" makes my f*cking hair hurt.

Absolutely atrocious! Why would anyone put that out. 

Bob's heater is barely warm to the touch. We started January so strong.

Just now, ravensrule said:

What a great time for Wxbell to be down. 

Yup. 4th time in the last week.

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Sticking to my 2.8" final call from two days ago

Might be a pretty good call lol.

Bottom line is if Euro stays stubborn and continues to show same results or even improve and ends up being correct than the GFS won't catch on until tomorrow maybe as late as 0z. 

I'm still on the front running train. Let's max out on that as WxUSAF outlined in his earlier post.

Just now, yoda said:

Now its time for some prayers to move this west just another 50 miles or so after seeing the 06z EURO lol

I'm really good with several inches. Such a delicate set up I wish I could just lock up 4 inches instead of rolling the dice for a bigger event especially for my location. 

With a system like this we still have an eternity to go. As I stated yesterday we can't lose the snow with the initial northern energy. We've all invested too much time not to see snow falling and have something on the ground for the weekend. 

Bitter cold behind it.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

At this point we might be better off if the coastal is even slower to develop or have that weak wave off the southeast escape completely and get a nice minor event from the NS SW.  

This has been my thinking all along. 

We need an emoji for being an idiot!

Just now, Ji said:

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Boy we need a pick me up tonight

Yep...pick up another hobby

This is not a hobby. It is an addictive sickness!

I would've thought by now they would run the off hour Euro runs at least out to 7 days.

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Yup, keep expectations low…

Is that what you tell your clients when you take on a new case.  

At the very least I don't want to lose the snow associated with the initial northern energy. A cold windy weekend with bare ground and some sort of pattern change looming will be a let down. 

Quite the  prolonged period of lighter snows over there area as depicted on this run.

1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

It snowed ALL day Wednesday, especially NW. Ridiculous conditions with those rates/ratios and the winds/drifts. Similar severity to what I just experience this past weekend in McHenry. 

Some memorable occurrences from that storm:

1. During heavy bands when the winds gusted visibility was down to 200 ft.

2. By early afternoon snow became more squall like and in between the heavier showers and squalls the sky would brighten then get dark as the heavier snow started back up.

3. Little finger bands dropping out of PA kept the snowing going til almost midnight.