HighStakes

48 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Man those sugar spikes and drops can make for some fun reading 

You are on fire today!!

1 minute ago, mappy said:

We really need a Debbie Downer emoticon

Absolutely.

We have members here that have thousands of posts over many years and never have they ever had 1 positive post.

12/27:  0.5

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Yep. I’m thinking 20:1. Anybody with me?

Quite likely for you and me and 15:1 for areas closer to the beltways.

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

WBAL forecast in serious jeopardy 

Tom T. was very stubborn this go round.

Cloudy and breezy. Had a few flurries earlier. Good luck to those south of here!

14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Everyone wants the jack. This one isnt our jack storm. But I will take 2-4 in a heartbeat. 

Agree. I'll be thrilled with that considering where we were 48 hours ago. Plus there could easily be a surprise or 2 with this.

32 minutes ago, mappy said:

Half inch! Officially a measurable snow! 

Just saw your picture on FB posted by Ava.

A bit of light snow now.

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m generally pessimistic until we see base state changes in the pac. I see a lot of similarities to 2019 when guidance tried again and again to progress the pattern in a logical way but the western pac base state continually thwarted it.  That’s a pretty logical mistake for the NWP. It’s important to understand why they are wrong sometimes.  Fool me once shame on you…

 

That said there will be fluctuations. The guidance is weakening the NW pac vortex in January. That would help. The location of the pac ridge isn’t likely to change much. It’s well telleconnected to the Nina and western pac base state and TNH combo.  However, we can do good if the pac ridge is less amplified and broader. It’s plenty poleward but it’s way too sharp which is digging the pna trough way too much.  
 

Even in 2019 there were some instances when the western trough shifted east just enough to get chances with waves.
 

On a more specific front, one way I could see an opportunity in early January would be a scenery similar to the storm in Jan 2019.   After the likely cutter we could get enough cold stuck under the block/50/50 for something to attack from the west.  The ridge is far enough west for a time to maybe allow enough space for something to squeeze through.  Wouldn’t be an amplified system but neither was that 2019 one.  That’s one way to get something in this coming pattern. 

If I'm not mistaken the January 2019 storm hit right as the MJO went into phase 8. 

11 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The winter from this point on last year was a dud?

For him yes it was lol.

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Let see what the EURO ensembles show, but I would love to see a better sign of a major pattern change within the next 2 weeks.  There was never a guarantee of a storm, but it would be nice to get a window of opportunity in January.  I don’t see it yet.

So on December 19th you see no window of opportunity in January?

18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Feb 1986 was pretty good. 13” at BWI

2 decent moderate events the last week of February salvaged the winter.

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It wasn’t AWFUL but 15.6” total (considering bwi climo was ~ 22” during that period) with that pattern would have been a let down.  It was also worse up here. Low 20s I think which is a bottom 10% snowfall winter here. Cold/dry if my memory of the records is right. Just crazy that 2000 was better wrt snowfall when the pattern was absolutely sheet 90% of that winter. 

There were 2 busts that were painful in January Superbowl Sunday ( Bears vs. Patriots ) was supposed to be rain changing to snow with up to 6 inches expected. The other bust was a 3-6 inches forecast and ended up with zilch.

26 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Monkton, baby! I have applied for honorary membership to north crew - exit 27 off 83 far enough north to qualify for admission?

We will see how it goes after your 90 day probation period ends then We'll make a decision!

3 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

I assume the mods already know about it. Hopefully they ban the account. 

The message I got said it was sent to me and 14 others so hopefully it won't be an ongoing issue.

Yeah, I got 2 weird messages this morning. I just deleted them and did not open either. I forgot to report them.

10 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Damn I didn't realize how close the Vikings were to blowing that game. Their knack for doing that is uncanny.

There's historically been toughly 7 or 8 teams that do what ever they can to throw away games and find improbable ways to lose but the Vikings have to be at the top. Even when they were really good in the 70's they pulled off some epic collapses.

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’ll tell ya, I don’t think it would take much to make this at least interesting. Seriously 

No question about it. 

27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That’s odd since JB is touting his 95-96 analog so much!! 

Don't forget his January 85 arctic outbreak and his 1967 whatever the hell with a touch of January 1977 thrown in the mix now.

Just sent my info.

23 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I was LITERALLY in Emmtisburg for that. Got a hotel and everything. It snowed from noon to around 3:30 and then went to snizel. By evening it was done. It was pretty, maybe got to 5 inches? Tops. I stayed the night. It was EXTREMELY disappointing. Yes way. 

Well you were extremely unlucky in that one location because every area surrounding Emmitsburg recorded double what you saw. I would not label that storm a bust for the northern tier. It was clear by gametime that the huge totals models were spitting out a few days before we're not going to be realized. For mid December it was a very decent storm. Other than a few members almost everyone received some accumulation.

42 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I recall that now. It was a cold rain around the bay and east, but forgot how it busted up that way. Reinforces the overall point- December is a Fall month and outside of the highlands, the MA generally doesn't do frozen easily, even with a pretty favorable setup in the high latitudes. 

I just went back and looked. We got over 10 inches here. There's no way Emmitsburg only got 4 inches. Mappy got over 8. Frederick was 6-8. The storm did suck for a lot of the forum but anyone north of the Baltimore Beltway got at least 4 and most areas just inside the Beltway got 2-4. 

BWI: 20.7

DCA: 12.1

IAD: 24.1

RIC: 12.2

SBY: 10.4

13 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So hang on...can we summarize last year as the cold air not having long enough to get over to our side before the blocking came? (with the secondary problem of an unfortunate split of the vortex in the wrong spot in February). Ya gotta wonder if the first (the cold air getting stuck on the other side of the world) was something random or part of a bigger problem.

It's only early October. Are you going to be ok?