HighStakes

Only 34 now. Multiple runs of the GFS had me in the mid 40's.

13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yea....pretty unanimous on guidance many will see snow showers from the ull Monday.  Convective rates should get some  areas a coating to an inch . I'd be good with a moderate to heavy snow shower that coated the grass and car tops to start the season.  And I agree with PSU that qpf for the ull pass is probably underdone.  Could easily see someone n+w that gets the most intense convective bands getting an inch or more. 

Euro temps are colder than GFS for Monday. Has our area in the mid 30's at its warmest and throws out about  .15 liquid. Somehow double that output which isn't impossible and it could get fun for a while. 

Certainly not an impossible solution. Maybe some similarities to December 82 storm. If memory serves I think the first part of the storm was a cold rain with a little mix then the coastal took over and most of the forum got thumped. 

And now almost all snow.

13 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Anyone seeing snow in Carrol or Frederick counties?  I'm hoping to see some flurries with the backside rotating through.

5 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Gotta be snowing there. It’s snowing in Lancaster under the lighter returns right now.


.

Nah, just rain although it has the look of a few flakes trying to mix in.

18

42 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Watching a wizards game isn't the same anymore without Buchantz . When they got rid of Phil Chenier it was bad enough.

No doubt about it.

Few flurries here now..

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

Man...I'm guessing this GFS cold bias is real. That's crazy. 

That's gotta be the coldest 3 day stretch any model has ever shown for mid November . 

BWI:  28.2

DCA: 20.6

IAD: 32.2

RIC: 14.8

SBY: 14.8

11 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Parr’s ridge did alright, I think.

Looks like we'll finish around 5. Hit low end of warning criteria and was plowable. No complaints here. Puts me at 37.0 for the season which is right at climo. Take away the 6 inches I got from the November storm and I still broke 30. That storm still was the single highest storm total this year for us up here which is pretty odd. This was the case with the October storm in 2011 however much less snow followed in that winter.

Heaviest of the day currently. Inch an hour rates. Looks like a legit snowstorm now. 4 inches I would guess.

1 minute ago, mappy said:

Just about 2” before the sleet. Will measure again in a little while. 

Snowing nicely here now. Looks like were pushing 3. Temp is 30/31. Good chance the low end of the warning will vary. Can't rule out 6 inches  if this can go to midnight or so .

Snow has been steady for over 5 hours. Nothing impressive so far. A few moderate bursts but generally light. I guess were over an inch but haven't measured. Sidewalk and driveway finally starting to accumulate. Temp 32. Radar looking better so we'll see I guess if we dont mix here too.

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

and just like that, i've flipped to sleet.  snow over.

I think we need to create a separate obs thread for you and Baltimore guy.

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

32/22 here. 

Went to my friend's house in gamber/finksburg. No snow left on the ground. Bare as can be. Actually there was no snowcover left south of Walmart. 

The fact that we held some snow cover bodes well. Our temps are running quite a bit cooler than the rest of the forum this morning .

2 minutes ago, mappy said:

34/26  starting warm and hoping to cool quickly is the worst. 

We're ok.  We should cool quickly once precip. starts. If we were in the low 40's now it would be a tougher situation. Hopefully we sent rise too much this morning whicjmh I dont think will happen. Temp should go right to 30-31 once we're snowing and fully saturated.

2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Should we cut these by 1/3 since ratios are expected to be ~7:1?

I don't think you'll be 7:1. You should be close to 10:1. 

3 minutes ago, Sparky said:

I don't think he realizes where you live now.  Your post almost sounds like you are still in O.W.

I thought that too especially if he's on his phone and cant see my location 

1 minute ago, mikeg0305 said:

Parkton’s got you beat

Yes, but Parkton is considered more of a far northern burb.

5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro is bullish Tuesday morning for lows near 0 . Fairly rare for March even up this way 

And barely gets us to 20 for the high on Wednesday.

1 minute ago, notvirga! said:

It seems like you've done pretty well this winter. I've busted low I think on every lwx forecast lol. I hope it's not like this every year in Owings Mills; I'm new to Baltimore County

Nah, Owings Mills/Reisterstown is generally one of the better spots if not the best for the immediate closer burbs. I'm from that area. Lived there for 35 years.  Pretty good elevation for only being 10-15 miles outside of the city. Some spots are over 700 ft. Always better to be above the northwest side of the beltway. There can be fairly dramatic differences depending on whether your closer to the beltway on reisterstown rd. or farther north toward the rt.140/30 split.

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Good news for us 95'ers. Tony Pann's Deep Thunder is a beat down for the 95 corridor. LOL. Get your shovels and snow blowers ready.

Now you're talking.  Deep thunder/rpm is the new euro/eta

2 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I am rooting for progressive and weaker so everyone gets cold rain like my yard is guaranteed to get.

But then, I am a selfish dick. And bitter, very bitter.

What you need to do is have your beautiful house relocated to the very top of the highest ridge in northern Carroll county. That way you can be bitter about being fringed. 

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@showmethesnow at this point I think we (the northern crew) need to stop rooting for a deamplification trend. The thermal boundary seems pretty locked in now and all the less amplified solutions are doing are killing the storm frankly. Yea a gfs type solution might get 2-3” into DC but at the expense of there being a 6”+ area anywhere. I hate rooting against a lot of snow in DC but if it means we get another 3-4” marginal event up here instead of 6-10” sorry I’m not taking another one for the team lol. 

I guess what I’m saying is given the depth of cold we have to work with I don’t see a way for this to be a big snow into DC. If it amps up enough it pushes the boundary to the NW and it’s a 6-10” snow NW VA and for us. If it trends weaker it might snow into DC but it’s no more than a 3-5” storm anywhere.   I don’t want to see this be a repeat of early March 2014 and become the pathetic waste that turned into. 

Best case scenario is an amped solution that thumps enough to get some decent snows into the cities while still crushing our area. But that’s a tightrope act. 

No doubt. I'm willing to the roll the dice if it means having a shot at 10 inches plus. Not only is the deamplification cutting back on qpf. it's also speeding the storm up making it roughly an eight hour event.