HighStakes

Just now, Ji said:

Nice cold blast weekend after storm for psus new snowpack

Then a couple inches monday morning to freshen it up.

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Jokes aside I can’t really look right now but I care more about the trend then verbatim what it shows. The last few runs went from a snowstorm to some snow to mix to rain for us. Did that reverse or is it still trending warmer?

Verbatim we get a couple inches of snow, then zr then heavy a cold rain. Temps get into low 40's even here by 18z friday before the front sweeps through. The run was warmer overall. Slow death  

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Even he would be hard pressed to find much to like about the upcoming week.

Right lol.

In all seriousness though I think I would have like to rolled the dice with the look we were getting a week or so ago when the entire PV collapsed into the lakes instead of this slow bleed towards crap we've seen the last 3-4 days on the models. I'm not convinced that would've only led to bitter cold and dry. I know PSU would disagree. I think that scenario could've led to a nice storm as it lifted out. Maybe even would have produced on the the front end of it diving in. We'll never know. 

8 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Looks like it's about over here, enjoy the rest of your day down south hope it's a real humdinger

It never started here.

@losetoa6 stops posting and the whole thing goes into the crapper. There are very optimistic posters left. We can't afford to lose anymore.

Come on back brother!

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The deck was already reshuffled when the block retrograded too far west.  We need the NAO to tank again. The pac isn’t changing.  And I don’t mean the Nina. The PAC pattern has been virtually the same for 3+ years now and 2 of those were ninos. This is the pac base state. We need other things to mitigate it. It’s not magically going away. 

Last nights ensembles look to bring back a -NAO by the last week of February. Other teleconnections don't look great but by that time of the year a-NAO is the most important and override the other indices. Maybe some hints of a -EPO in about 12 days. Maybe we get another round of decent looks. With shortening wavelengths we could be in business.

4 p.m. 2/15

DCA: 36

DFW: 16

DEN: 12

Low 2/16

DCA: 30

DFW: 7

DEN: 9

2/10-11: 3.5

Total: 32.0

Temps falling back a bit. Nice to have a snow event that doesn't melt in 10 minutes with full sunshine and 44 degrees.

All these storms when we have blocking and now there becoming quick hitters. Where's the log jam?

32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Fringed up here. Only had 2.8” when I cleared the driveway around 7. Probably got up over 3 with that last band after that. Never got into good rates. Just very very light snow all night. But very happy some south of me cashed in! 

I thought it was close to 4 when I first got up but it wasn't. Measured 3.2 but that was before the last band. I'll make it 3.5 since there were a couple minor coatings this year I didnt record.

Looks to be about 4. Getting a steady light/moderate snow at the moment. 27. Nice event.

Moderate snow. 29. Over an inch but did measure.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

You want to take the overflow for my glacier tours business next week?

No but I'm sure Howard will be glad too..

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

yea 30/23 and pouring misty groupely snow here.  

Transitioning now to a better snow.

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Im very fair to everyone in life and on forums but something is going on here and it's not fun for me anymore .

No need to leave the board. Just focus on your enjoyment with tracking, model analysis and observations. Too many good posters leave. Try not to take it personal.  

Zero Monday morning on GFS.

Just now, caviman2201 said:

Oh look... It's the last second north tick that's happened all year. This year it seems that if you want the goods, you want to be north fringed at 48-72h

Sure a north tick or 2 is possible but this system is nothing like the others. This can go further south just as likely as bumping north. Set up is entirely different from the storms that came north in the last 24 hours. 

So the breakdown of the next 8 days.

Wave 1 wednesday p.m. until thursday midday. Then intermittently light stuff.

Wave 2 or continuation of wave 1 however you prefer overnight Thursday into Friday midday.

Then potential coastal late Saturday into Sunday followed by cold blast. 

Then look for another coastal Tuesday followed by more cold.

Really a cold looking snow Friday morning. 

Man look at that airmass over northern Minnesota at 126.

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

it comes north but the heavy snow is central VA.  But we get a decent snow from the second wave.  It's a nice storm for the whole area but it's best down in central VA.  BTW kinda reminds me of that one Feb 1996 event that was kinda like that.  

Yeah maybe, good catch.

Just now, yoda said:

Monster 1051 HP comes visiting into the Plains at 162 lol

What a pattern.

On 2/4/2021 at 10:04 AM, HighStakes said:

1/31-2/2: 12.0

Total: 23.0

2/7: 5.5

Total: 28.5

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

looking at all the coop data in the area it was between 16-20" here.  Before they migrated all the coop stuff over to the new CLIMOD2 system there was way more.  I did a lot of research back about 10 years ago.  Had to scour through various databases and state climatology offices and even had to email and request some stuff.   I love the new system, makes searching way easier to have it all in one database but unfortunately a lot of data didn't get populated into the new system and they took most of the old ones offline.  

Wow, impressive storm here. Basically 2 inches an hour from start to finish. Today could've been a mini version of it if we were a touch cooler or the snow fell at night.

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

That is what I recall. It was forecast to stay south until the day of the event. There was a crazy gradient with that one from the northern part of my county to down south. Had a foot here, but southern Caroline was rain for most of it and ended up with 3-4" That was just after I moved here. Westminster had around 18" in that one I think.

Not sure about up here but I got 12 inches with that one. At the time  I lived 1 mile north of beltway exit 20 on the Pikesville/Owings Mills line. Started snowing just after dark and was done before sunrise. I think it was a Sunday.