HighStakes

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

November 1995. It was THAT long ago. 

See my post in the other thread. Significant snow not so much but many examples of quick hitters behind fronts. More so N and W but still cities on south saw a change and accumulation. I listed a few dates but there are actually several others I didn't mention.

A burst of snow is very possible  if not likely with this set up. Could be a quick 1-2 if not a bit more. There are actually quite a few examples of strong fronts that had a couple hours of snow on the other side of the front even into the cities. Notably 3/2005, 3/1995, 11/1995, 3/1999, 4 /2000 etc. As recent as last March saw heavy rain change to snow so it happens more frequently than realized. 

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I like Rich Eisen- good studio guy- but NOT good at calling a game.

No he's not. Very awkward.

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Seen enough of Robinson. Throw another TE out there.

We're a team full of number 3 and 4 receivers. 

Where would we be without Tucker!

2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Hope the eps is wrong. By New Years Eve all of the US is well above normal 850s.

It's pretty disgusting.

Just a few days ago the EPO was forecasted to be around neutral to slightly positive but now it's forecasted to go strongly positive. Tough to get any arctic air in the U.S. despite the other indices being favorable. Good news is that it look short lived as EPO should head down after right the new year.

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The 27th threat was predicated on this system being a coastal and progressing east. If it bombs to 950 and ends up a tpv directly north of us nothings going to happen for a while around here after. 

Especially withe EPO going solidily positive right after Christmas. 

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Just watched a JB video for the first time in a couple years.  Confused. He favors the big storm to be inland (can’t fault that) then saying the pattern “finally breaks down and warms up” but is talking like he is taking a victory lap. Did I miss a bunch of cold and snow?  Maybe I slept through it. He has a huge area in above normal snow that hasnt had any snow, he is saying hey aren’t getting any, and a big warmup is coming and is acting like “nailed it”. Seriously someone who still follows him clue me in. 

Yesterday he was concerned that his flip to warm may be short lived as the EPO hints at going negative in early January. He says the possibility is growing that another severe arctic shot between the 5th and 20th of January. Compares this year to his 2010/2011 forecast when he called for the end to fast and winter stayed strong into February. He's all over the place. The day before yesterday he was on the warm train completely and said this was a 1989/1990 and 1964/1965 winter that after the cold December it ended for good in January.

Thank you to all those who tell us to keep expectations in check and don't get our hopes too high for a  storm that is 168 HOURS AWAY!!! I definitely needed to be brought back to reality. 

Pretty good glaze on everything with icy spots on pavements. 

19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffman, maybe a lot again comes back to what people mean for “cash in.” I know some are HECS or bust. I’m not and maybe that’s my befuddlement. I’ve said a few times that something like 3” for DCA and ~6” for IAD and BWI would be wins in my book for December. That’s like 200% of normal! And if that comes via a front end thump that eventually mixes or changes over and then is followed by arctic air…bring it on I say.

I agree. My bar is always set at a reasonable level and my location is one the better within the forum. If we're fortunate for the pattern to come to fruition and we get a solid 2-3 week window, I would be very pleased with 2 or 3 measurable events. Let's say something along the lines of what you described above. A nice front end thump followed by arctic air and maybe a nice wave that's all snow that produces several more inches and if we can get lucky enough for a 3rd event then another moderate front end thump would be ideal. It would be nice to have the cold allow for an extended period of snow cover before the pattern flips. The one caveat I would say would be some of the looks were getting in the 10-15 really do enhance the chance for something major. I did notice that the last few runs of the teleconnections on the EURO are popping the EPO neutral to slightly positive around Christmas but the other indices look great. 

55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was up in PA that one winter and got 14” but where I am now got 23” according to the coop down the street. 

That's right! I recorded 24 for the 2 part event. 16 inches with the heavy snow overnight into the morning. Then 1st part ended as some drizzle/ mist. Part 2 was very heavy snow for several hours that evening resulting in 8 more inches. Pretty sure this area bulleyed part 2. If I remember correctly losetoa6 got roughly only 4 inches compared to the 8 here. Sharp cutoff just west of Westminster and just east of the Baltimore/ Carroll county line.

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Ravens cut Mike Davis, activate JK Dobbins. Will we finally have Gus and JK in the backfield at the same time, with Ronnie Stanley at LT? Bring that shiz.

And please stay healthy for the remainder of the season. Let's see what we can do with a decent O-line and starting backfield despite our inept passing game.

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Anybody have a chart for the Dec. 2009 setup? Curious how that one overcame December climo (particularly given how warm even Niños tend to be warmer to start)

It had a pretty strong cold air mass and later half of December doesn't have as many Climo issues from the cities on north. There was a decent storm 2 weeks earlier that presented Climo issues for the cities while the suburbs did quite well. 2 weeks later in December pretty much eliminated Climo related problems. 

32 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I am setting my expectations low because although the ensembles look good, you have to keep climo in mind for December:  A 1-3 inch storm region wide to get on the board this winter and temps in the 30s on Christmas would be a great start to the winter.  If we get better, I will be pleasantly surprised.  But one should not set the bar too high in December….

If the pattern is right and comes together as advertised there will be no problem with Climo for mid-December especially where you're located. Outside of the Eastern Shore, cities themselves and low lands no one will have a Climo related issue after December 10th . We haven't seen much snow in recent December's because we have had mostly crap patterns and not because it can no longer snow in December or Climo has changed that dramatically. Sure there are some concerning issues with the marginal events over recent years but not enough that a perfect set up for snow won't longer work in December especially the 2nd half of the month.

Flurries!

Cloudy, windy and cold. Been stuck around 36-37 all day.

Flurries!!

BWI: 18.2

DCA: 13.7

IAD: 18.7

RIC: 11.2

Tiebreaker SBY: 11.3

Good amount of frost!!

42 minutes ago, a.salt said:

I'm right there with you...I live in Millers right outside Manchester, and we have been without power since 4PM on Tuesday...that means no water, cell service, internet, AC, etc...

Sorry you have to deal with this. We were very fortunate here just 10 minutes from you. No damage and power was restored at 1:30 a.m. Wednesday.

1 hour ago, mappy said:

Hope you get power back soon. Def saying my thanks as my house missed the worst of it, close call for sure. Saw some damage reports near Dairy Road, which isn’t far from me. 

Wasn't bad here but just a mile or 2 away was really bad. We lost power until 1:30 a.m.

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Jan-Feb ‘01 was mega torch though, right?

January was close to normal favoring the plus side but February was quite mild. 

2 hours ago, Interstate said:

Yes I agree with the lineup that it is young and will have growing pains.  But this is the lineup that the rebuild was building.  But right now when someone is struggling... then someone else is picking up the slack.  This is the lineup I hope we will see for the future... we just need some more depth at the 7-9 hitters.  But you cannot not studs in the entire lineup... at least in the market we are in.

 

My buddy put a bet in at the Horseshoe that the Orioles would win 56 games or more... The payout is 90%... I bet he wishes he would have taken out a second mortgage.

One of my friends has a bet they win more than 63.

32 minutes ago, Interstate said:

At this point... what are we trying to get?  We need a veteran starting pitcher for the young guys.  The batting order is set with a few minor tweaks needed.  Losing Grayson Rodriguez for the season really hurts... he was a start or two from joining the majors.  For as many pitching prospects  we have gotten from trades... some of them need to pan out.  Anything we trade for, will be a couple of years away from the majors.  The bats are there, we just need one good veteran pitcher to help out.  I think they have turned the corner and now need to start buying pitching.

I dont think orioles management would say we have nearly enough at this point. You can never have enough depth with pitching. There's no guarantee on anyone living up to potential. The rest of these guys were waiting on coming up are still just prospects. Let's not forget how some can't miss Pitchers didn't pan out for us in the past. 

Also let's not get fooled into thinking our line up is better than it really is. We only have 2 everyday players hitting .280. Everyone else is .265 or lower and we strikeout a ton. Hayes has cooled off considerably and up until 2-3 weeks ago Mullins was struggling. My point is some of these guys that fans have penciled in for the future probably won't be on the team. My position is to continue stockpiling talent. I have full confidence in Elias.