HighStakes

Just now, jayyy said:

Really hoping to see improvements at 00z tonight as we approach the 72 hour window. Especially on the GFS.


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12z GFS was colder. PSU mentioned models are starting to meet in the middle which won't get it done. It's not hopeless yet though. This should be the type of system that if it does take a decent track any area that gets heavy precip. and has some elevation would be in the game for some snow.

Cloudy and stuck at 30.

25 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The chances have looked slim at best based on the reports. Huntley didn't throw today, but was at practice. He has shoulder tendonitis, and should be able to play with that. I think they are just getting him as much rest as possible, but he probably needs to be more involved tomorrow if he is is going to start. The only chance the Ravens have is for the D to be dominant, the run game to be dominant and eat clock, while scoring 20, don't turn it over, and get a takeaway or 2. Tall order.

Thread the needle? Lol.

It appears that we had the slightest of dustings here overnight.

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro remains pretty unenthusiastic. Just less precip so warmer solution.

Yeah, not great but it did get a good deal wetter up here.

This is still our best shot so far! I really don't see it as a thread the needle type deal. 

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I mean...I'm not sure how people can look at the last 6-7 years of overall snow mediocrity and then suppose it's a great mystery why so many of us are salty, lol Now I absolutely understand wanting to have less complaining and more discussion. However...particularly between runs, the saltiness is gonna leak out. I mean how can it not? This has been an absolutely brutal stretch! Ain't gonna be perfectly positive in here, lol

I get it! I'm just as frustrated and aggrevated as anyone. What bothers me is that you have a handful of bad posters that have no trouble spending hours on this board yet they don't seem to have any time to really learn and as result their posts stink. Sure, it's ok to vent a little but on the other hand try to become educated. We're lucky to have some of the best insight and knowledge available through some fantastic posters and red taggers. I have noticed that you personally have made an effort to learn and you ask some good questions. We just need a few more regulars to follow suit. 

13 minutes ago, mattie g said:

This thread is a lifesuck.

Absolutely horrendous!

Big change on 12z Euro ensemble charts regarding EPO. After days of positive to neutral it finally brings it in solid negative territory. All other indices appears to be lining up as well. 

58 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Yep February 11th, 1983, that was a fun storm 22" 40-50 mph winds 5–8-foot snow drifts and thunder and lightning!  I think the very next day the big melt off began though.

I ended up with 26-28 inches. Hour after hour of sustained 2-3 inch per hour rates. If memory serves correct most of the snow fell in a 12 hour period  between 5:00 a.m. and 5:00 p.m.

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Rough last few months here with Dad passing and girlfriend moving on, but I will always survive and be better for it.

And Christmas will always be my favorite season.

 

 

Sorry to hear this Bob. Hang in there. Better days ahead. Hopefully a few snowy ones!

16 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Eastern ridge definitely starting to be beat down by Jan 8th, but 2m anomalies still mostly warm through Jan 12.  Not sure of that is residual from Pac Puke or just the new pattern is meh.

Last 2 run of Euro ensembles backed off slightly on the EPO going negative. It still has it going down but keeps it positive where before it clearly had it neutral to going negative. Let's hope it returns to the looks we were getting before today. Way too early to tell is the new pattern is just meh. AO appears to be negative and PNA firmly positive by the 8th. Last 2 run also also backed off a bit on a -NAO but still has it clise to neutral. We'll see. 

2 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

140 years of data says otherwise.  But emotion away

I haven't read through this thread very carefully but my post was focused on the data from 1989 until present. You can't deny that those numbers are very concerning. We're talking about almost half of the last 33 winters producing extremely low numbers. For instance if the numbers went from 9 to 11 then it can be dismissed  or chalked up to random occurrence but 9 to 16 is almost double and has to be strongly accepted as something greater involved.

16 winters over a 33/34 year span that resulted in single digit amounts is outright atrocious coicidence or not. That can't just be getting unlucky. I understand it's a small sample size but it's the most recent 33 year period in the discussion. Very alarming. I knew DCA has been bad recently but when you see it on the chart it becomes shocking. Very alarming. One can hope hope it's a cyclical type deal but common sense says otherwise. 

Flurries and 26.

Very light snow!

Teleconnections off today's 12z Euro look pretty good in the extended. EPO heads towards negative, PNA stays positive while AO and NAO remain neutral to slightly positive. That could work well for us and could ( emphasize could ) lock in for a couple weeks coinciding with our coldest seasonal averages. Fingers crossed for a nice mini heater from second week of through the end of the month. Let's hope indices stay on track. 

1 minute ago, cbmclean said:

It was 2018-19.  I remember a BobChill post from early January about how sickening it was to see that track lead to a rain storm.

I think it was 2018/2019 winter also.

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Agree but then you’re taking a 9” storm in DC and making it a 5-6” storm.  And what if that had been a 3-5” snow from the WAA and the storm never bombed to get the deform going. Then we lose it completely. We’re still bleeding imo. It’s just impossible to know exactly how bad. But back to my main thesis, I don’t think the overall pattern has been that consistently horrible the last 6 years to warrant the results. It’s not been a good period by any means. But I think the atrocious results are a mix of not so good pattern base state AND…ya know. 

Yeah, I forgot which year but it was a recent winter in the last 5 years where we had 2 or 3 juicy systems that took a perfect track and we rained with every one. Nothing on the front end or back end. Just couldn't tap any cold and they all failed. 

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s hard to say where we go from there. I don’t think analogs are as useful as they used to be.  Additionally almost all the top analogs to the current and coming pattern are Nino years. The one Nina that’s close to this wrt pattern progression and where we are heading now was 2005/6.

 The progression has been pretty close this year. Unfortunately if we follow a similar trajectory we didn’t take any advantage of the early blocking this year like that year and then we suffered a long time in January 2006. We did eventually get back to a good pattern in Feb but it underperformed and only yielded the one storm. As good as it was the h5 from Feb 1 on would make you think we got more than one snowfall. 
 

Imagine we almost wasted this look because the one storm we got was barely cold enough. 

On a side note I remember on eastern everyone saying leading up to the storm the pattern wasn’t great and it was a thread the needle setup. It wasn’t cold and so there was a narrow margin on track but i never understood that. The pattern couldn’t have been better. It just wasn’t that cold because we never recovered from the pacific onslaught that obliterated all cold from our side of the northern hemisphere.  
 

Here’s a thought…would that even work again?  If the exact same pattern repeats would that Feb 2006 storm work out because almost all the snow around DC fell with temps between 32-34 degrees. Or would it be a 34-35 degree rain and we would totally waste the same pattern?  

I think that storm still works because the main show was the deform band that cranked for several hours. I would hope that would still enable temps to crash enough. Now the 1st part of that storm might be a different story. That would probably be rain for areas around the cities. 

Single digits by 7 p.m.

17 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeeah I don't know man...To make a push without would be unprecedented in today's league! Can ya still win by rushing and defense? I mean, the Broncos kinda did it with an old Payton Manning, but...I'm sure that passing game was still functional, lol

Another issue in the passing game often overlooked is that our offense line is built to run block and are generally a poor pass blocking line. Even if we had a better receiving core our QB's would still be under pressure more than not. We rarely form a clean pocket and when we do Huntley has poor awareness and footwork. You dont see him step up or use a subtle side step to avoid pressure. After his first progression he often breaks and leaves the pocket. His arm strength is average and that's being generous. Our receivers are pretty bad and run bad routes but when they are open Huntley doesnt see them. Lamar has his own problems in the passing game but he's far superior to Huntley despite what some people think. It's not even close and that's accounting for Lamar's poor accuracy at times and inconsistent footwork when stepping into his throws. We have no chance without him. I wouldn't discount them from winning a playoff game. Lamar can carry the team for a game especially against a Tennessee or some other average team assuming the knee is healthy enough. Lamar makes enough big play to overcome his poor passing for 1 game but unfortunately not enough to  make a run deep into the playoffs.   

3 minutes ago, IronTy said:

WSW says 4-6" snow w/ 1/4" of ice.  Low of 1F on Friday night and a high of 5F on Saturday.  Wind chills -25F.  Our campsite is right on top of the ridge above 3k ft so I expect we'll be on the high end of snow and wind, and low end of temps.   Gonna spend a lot of time in the sleeping bags I expect.  

Weren't you just ready for Spring yesterday? 

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Would imply at least snow showers. Pretty impressive pressure falls too! Would imply some really windy conditions Friday.

My goodness!! This run has northern MD in the low 50's at 7 a.m. and 15 degrees at 1 p.m. with snow falling.

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Ya know, analogs that refer to winters that sucked here are always annoy me, lol Mercy

By no means was that a good winter but it certainly wasn't the worst. Knowing what we know now considering how difficult it seems to get snow, some of us may sign up for that winter again. As usual it was much better for N and W. December was cold and we missed on a couple chances. There was a decent event on the 19th Of December or thereabouts that produced 2-5 inches and it was a true anafront set-up. Another small system in earlyish January produced 1-3 inches. Suburbs got 4-8 from a decent storm the 3rd week of January. February was bad but we just missed on an early February storm where temps were just a touch too warm but I still got 2-3 living in Reisterstown at the time. Westminster/Manchester got 4-7. Then there was a moderate event 3rd week of February that produced 3-6 and it was a cold storm too for later in the season. Won't mention March for obvious reasons.