PDIII

the run to run consistency with the GFS placement of the band is staggering. It is probably picking up on baroclinic instability between the CAD and the SE ridge. This tells me that someone will get deathbanded.. just not sure where at this lead.

Probably has had some influence. And it measurable. Look we need responsible global environmental policies. This is important no matter what. All I am saying is that our atmosphere is so much bigger than what we can ever produce and there are natural cycles that will occur that cannot be stopped. Everything I know about global warming comes from my time at Hopkins in the Earth and planetary sciences program. The people I studied under drilled the ice cores themselves and had data that brought a lot of common Sense to this issue. Until someone shows me something that dismisses those findings I am going with what I learned.

It most certainly is C02. But the problem is that CO2 levels have spiked like similarly throughout time. This has been happening before people started walking upright and is shown in ice core data collected from Antarctica. The truth is that the Earth is coming out of an ice age. And will eventually enter another ice age and there is nothing we can do to disrupt that.

Where is it aiming?

Did showme get reaped or something? Did I miss something?

The thing is.. and you can correct me if I am wrong ERS.. but we can get a quick slug of 0.75 qpf as snow with this sort of set up... And if that happens.. I would not be surprised if someone gets 6-8 inches.

Hey in all seriousness.. I am concerned about the euro. I get it. Simple is simple.. but what happens when fire hose goes into the Ohio valley?

This one is better.. I guess. Don't they have one that shows all the sleet as snow?

That's the wrong map. Your supposed to show them that shows 15 inches. Come on now???

@Ji I think the euro just sniffed out the way we fail.

Who are you talking about?

Looking at the overall condition configuration of the system at 60 looks like it might pull a euro

The nam gives you 16 so in order to calculate the right snowfall from that you apply the following formula: N: nam output C: under modeled cad (this is ALWAYS the case) O: faster on set B: nam bs multiplier Total = (N+C+O)*B Or (16+2+2)*0.5 = 10 inches

Trending in the right direction for a change

Agreed. And this means that the 16 inches the nam is giving me should be more like 20

I was at 32 for pretty much the entire duration of last week and several branches came down. Power outages .

Hey Ji.. looks like we finally get a good trending moving in to game time.

You had mentioned in your cwg article that there is sort of a max potential with the current pattern/ set up. And the max potential is clearly nothing like what the fv3/ nam output looks like. What is it about the pattern that leads you to this conclusion? Is it the hp placement/ the fact that it slides.. is it the antecent air mass? Is the lack of blocking? The fact that we really aren't seeing transfer to the coast?

Seemed like last week the jackpot area was Bel airand havre de grace.. I guess the cad retreated sw to ne. I had about 8 hours of freezing rain in catonsville. I am thinking we might see a similar gradient.

Come on .. can you at least give me a hour to pretend like it is real?

It has a 16 over top of me. So the NAM is by far the model that we should follow for this storm.

I am not sure about the image above.. but this is one we have all been waiting for...

Because it shows the most snow...

Wes' article https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/02/17/dc-area-forecast-little-rain-sleet-later-today-significant-winter-storm-possible-late-tuesday-night-wednesday/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.a768ace0c0aa

The FV3 is steady Warning Criteria event. The op is basically showing flurries to rain. Would be great to see the FV3 get a big win before taking over as the signal caller.