Solak

Brad Panovich Meteorologist · Please Stay weather Aware Thursday. This strong front & the ingredients are coming together for severe storms in the late evening hours #Halloween. The STP or significant tornado parameter is enhanced right around Charlotte as it appears a small meso low forms on the front. Timing is everything so stay up on the weather the next 48 hrs. #cltwx #ncwx #scwx 242242 100 Comments267 Shares

Further south, stronger heating is expected across southeast VA into eastern NC/SC. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in warm advection ahead of the cold front but, dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s and pockets of heating should result in MLCAPE values as high as 1000-1500 J/kg by early afternoon. Strong to severe storms are expected to develop near the front and track east/northeast, moving offshore by 00z. Forecast soundings indicate steeper mid and low level lapse rates with shear profiles supportive of marginal supercells. Forcing will be weaker than further north, so anticipate mainly clusters and semi-discrete cells initially. Some upscale growth into bowing segments could occur through outflow interactions/storm mergers. Overall severe threat appears greater across this area as deeper, more discrete convection develops, posing a threat for locally damaging winds and possibly a couple of tornadoes. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 15% - Slight Hail: 5% - Marginal

Talk about a quick hit... .CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR VANCEBORO IN CRAVEN COUNTY, NORTH CAROLINA... START LOCATION...3 MILES NORTHEAST OF VANCEBORO IN CRAVEN COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA END LOCATION...3 MILES NORTHEAST OF VANCEBORO IN CRAVEN COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA DATE...OCTOBER 22ND 2019 ESTIMATED TIME...743 PM EDT MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF0 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...65 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...40 YARDS PATH LENGTH...0.05 MILES BEGINNING LAT/LON...35.350833/-77.125814 ENDING LAT/LON...35.350968/-77.125140 * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0

* Tornado Warning for... Wayne County in central North Carolina... North central Sampson County in central North Carolina... Southeastern Johnston County in central North Carolina... * Until 645 PM EDT * At 540 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 12 miles southeast of Benson, or 13 miles south of Smithfield, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Tornado. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

...North Carolina/southeast Virginia this afternoon/evening... The potential exists for a few thunderstorms capable of locally damaging winds, and possibly a tornado, across the region this afternoon into early evening, although the overall magnitude/extent of today's severe risk should remain limited. Associated with the base of a prominent east-central CONUS longwave trough, a vorticity maxima and the entrance region of a strong cyclonically curved polar jet will quickly transition east-northeastward from the Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley to the Appalachians by tonight. Modest cyclogenesis will occur in the lee of the southern/central Appalachians as a cold front continues to spread east of the mountains, and generally exits the coast by early/mid-evening. A warm/moist sector with 70F dew points will precede the cold front, with a north-northeastward expansion across coastal portions of South Carolina/North Carolina today. Even with this moist influx off the Atlantic, the relatively small-inland warm sector remains mired by broken multi-layer cloud cover at midday. Its potential persistence will temper lapse rates and limited upward parcel accelerations even with near 70F surface dewpoints, which casts uncertainty on how many mature/sustained surface-based storms will develop and intensify within the warm sector. That said, strengthening/gradually backing mid-level winds and resultant 45-55 kt effective shear will be conditionally supportive of fast-moving line segments capable of damaging winds, with some supercell/non-zero tornado potential particularly across eastern North Carolina in proximity to the warm front, should adequate destabilization and storm development/maturation occur.

Slight risk has been dropped.

For the Raleigh area folks...

Have a great trip!

One more round of possible severe before the cooldown.

I'll gladly take the rain without the severe factor. Dry around these parts.

Had one over this way as well... ...Summary... A brief tornado touched down 11 miles southwest of Clayton, in the Cleveland area of Johnston County, near the intersection of Cornwallis Road and Justin Drive and lifted near the intersection of Goldfield Drive and Justin Drive on July 23, 2019. Damage observed included minor shingle loss on several homes, numerous softwood trees snapped, and lawn furniture tossed a substantial distance. Damage is consistent with a brief tornado with maximum wind speeds of 80 to 90 mph.

3 E Fuquay-Varina [Wake Co, NC] NWS STORM SURVEY reports TORNADO at 23 Jul, 2:34 PM EDT -- A BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWN OCCURRED IN THE COMMUNITY OF WILLOW SPRINGS, NC ON JULY 23, 2019. THE DAMAGE CONSISTED OF A COMBINATION OF SNAPPED AND UPROOTED TREES, MINOR SIDING DAMAGE TO ONE HOME, AND NUMEROUS FENCES BLOWN DOWN. THE TYPES AND DIAMETERS OF THE AFFECTED TREES ALONG WITH THE DEGREE OF DAMAGE SUGGEST WIND SPEEDS OF 75 TO 85 MPH.

NWS Raleigh‏Verified account @NWSRaleigh 8s8 seconds ago The latest @NWSSPC outlook has upgraded areas along and east of US-1 to a "Marginal Risk" (1 of 5) for severe weather this afternoon and evening. Isolated damaging wind gusts from downbursts are possible from the strongest cells. Flash flooding is also a concern. #NCwx

NWS SPC‏Verified account @NWSSPC 7m7 minutes ago 7:44am CDT #SPC Day1 Outlook Slight Risk: across montana/western north dakota http://go.usa.gov/YWq5 ...Carolinas/southern Virginia... A moist summertime air mass will remain across the region with ample insolation coincident with relatively cloud-free skies early in the day. As the air mass quickly destabilizes and becomes moderately unstable, scattered thunderstorms will develop/increase through the afternoon initially near the mountains/Blue Ridge and near a weak surface trough across the region. While tropospheric winds will remain weak and mid-level lapse rates are poor, diurnally steepening low-level lapse and ample Precipitable Water could yield at least a few instances of wet microbursts and locally damaging winds.

Weather Wes Hohenstein 47 mins · Sunday's small thunderstorm that moved through Wake County was very powerful & sure did cause a lot of problems. Proof that we need to take all storms serious & that size doesn't matter! Was probably a micorburst that produced winds over 60-70 mph! #ncwx 21

We were put in a marginal risk earlier today. Wow, though - that's quite a report you have in the observation thread!

NWS GSP‏Verified account @NWSGSP 14m14 minutes ago Latest update from @NWSSPC shows a significant increase in severe t-storm risk this afternoon. An Enhanced Risk means numerous storms producing winds in excess of 60mph are now possible across all of Upstate SC, northeast GA, and parts of NC. Please stay aware! #GAwx #NCwx #SCwx

That first MCS really had wheels! Kansas City to Charleston and Savannah in less than 24 hours.

< Previous MD Mesoscale Discussion 1186 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0902 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2019 Areas affected...eastern TN into western NC...SC...northern GA...central AL and northeast MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 220202Z - 220400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential will likely persist into the overnight hours and a downstream severe thunderstorm watch is likely to the south/southeast of WW 419. DISCUSSION...A bow echo continues to shift east/southeast across KY/TN this evening. Western portions of this line continue to weaken as outflow surges southward ahead of the line into northern MS. It remains unclear how far south and east the bow echo will continue, however, a strong cold pool remains in the wake of the line and ample MLCAPE remains southeast of the line from middle/eastern TN into AL/GA before decreasing toward the western Carolinas. The latest VWP from OHX does indicate some weakening of the rear-inflow jet compared to 1-2 hours ago, but still showing 50-60 kt between 1-3 km ARL. The most recent measured gusts have generally been between 40-50 kt with many reports of trees down and other damage. Given a favorable downstream environment where strong instability and a very moist boundary layer persists beneath steep midlevel lapse rates and modestly increasing deep layer shear overnight, some threat for damaging wind is expected to extend into parts of northern/central AL into northern GA and perhaps the western Carolinas and a watch likely will be needed for at least some portions of the MCD area in the next 1-2 hours.

That's quite a gust!!! ...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR THE NASH COUNTY THUNDERSTORM WIND EVENT... .An NWS survey team has determined that straight-line winds were the primary cause of extensive tree and minor structural damage to the North Carolina Wesleyan College Sports complex on April 20th... Location...2 SSW Battleboro in Nash County, North Carolina Date...June 20th, 2019 Estimated Time...4:20 PM EDT Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...85-95 mph Maximum Path Width...650 yards Path Length...0.4 miles Beginning Lat/Lon...36.01/-77.78 Ending Lat/Lon...36.01/-77.78 * Fatalities...0 * Injuries...0 ...Summary... Strong, straight-line thunderstorm winds from a microburst impacted areas near the intersection of Thomas A Betts Parkway and Bishop Road. Upon impact, 85 to 95 mph winds quickly spread in a fan-like pattern primarily northeast of the original impact point. Damage from the wind gusts ranged from nearly 100 uprooted and snapped pine trees and minor structural damage to the sport complex outbuildings. This includes the total loss of an anchored steel score board, significant damage to a cinder block dugout which included a primary wall collapse, and the uplift, transport, and destruction of a viewing tower near the Football complex. Minor damage to fencing and other temporary structures was also common place, with little to no damage present to nearby sturdy buildings.

Nice grab, eyewall!

60K+ w/o power now. (SC/NC - Duke Power)

32K and climbing without power (Duke Power) in NC/SC