Solak

*Breaking out secret decoder ring

And today's... Looks a lot more reasonable. Second Period TOTAL PRECIP: 0.81 " and Convective: 0.73 "

Today's 06z GFS for 6/20 - 2/28 Second Period TOTAL PRECIP: 6.21 " and Convective: 2.96 "

NC Emergency Managem‏Verified account @NCEmergency 4m4 minutes ago McDowell Co. experiencing most significant flooding since 2004 during Hurricane Frances/Ivan; some WNC areas have seen 15-16" of rain in past 2 weeks. Add'tl 1-2" rain likely in mtns today, continuing chance for flooding/landslides. Saturated soils=downed trees #BeReadyNC! #ncwx

< Previous MD Mesoscale Discussion 0501 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Wed May 23 2018 Areas affected...Southern Virginia...Eastern and Central North Carolina...Far Northern South Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 231951Z - 232215Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A marginal wind damage threat is expected to develop across parts of southern Virginia into central and eastern North Carolina to far northern South Carolina. DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a cold front in southern Virginia with a moist airmass south of the front across much of central and eastern North Carolina. Surface dewpoints generally range from the mid 60s to lower 70s F with the RAP estimating MLCAPE of 1500 to 2500 J/kg. According to the RAP, 0-3 km lapse rates have increased into the 7.5 to 8.0 C/km range across much of southern Virginia and northern North Carolina. This suggests that conditions will support a marginal wind damage threat. The threat should maximize near peak heating. Deep-layer shear appears too weak to warrant issuing a weather watch.

NHC Atlantic Ops‏Verified account @NHC_Atlantic 44m44 minutes ago Low pressure moving northward through the eastern Gulf of Mexico could acquire some subtropical or tropical characteristics during the next few days. Regardless of development, rainfall will be enhanced across FL and the NE Gulf Coast https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 …

Rotation in that Goldsboro storm on Sunday

Lets see if anything develops later this afternoon... ...Central/eastern NC and far southeast VA... A shortwave trough over the central Appalachians will decay as it progresses towards the Northeast states. A weak surface cyclone near Greensboro should track east along the NC/VA border through this evening. A narrow wedge of robust insolation is underway near the surface cyclone, between the impinging cold front and widespread cloud/stratiform rain across eastern portions of NC/VA. Weak mid-level lapse rates sampled by 12Z soundings will limit updraft acceleration this afternoon, but the corridor of surface heating amid residual mid 60s surface dew points should yield MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg. Isolated to scattered storm development is likely by mid-late afternoon. J-shaped hodographs will favor strong vertical shear within the mid to upper portion of the thermodynamic profile which should support a few supercells. Isolated to widely scattered severe hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible, before weakening after sunset.

And so it begins... NHC Atlantic Ops‏Verified account @NHC_Atlantic 50m50 minutes ago A Special Tropical Weather Outlook has been issued on the system near the Bahamas. While development is not expected, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over southern Florida and the Bahamas through this weekend. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2 …

NWS Raleigh‏Verified account @NWSRaleigh 3h3 hours ago Mostly small hail will be common in showers and storms today. The strongest storms may produce hail to around 1" in diameter over the ne Piedmont and nrn Coastal Plain, around Rocky Mount-Wilson, Roanoke Rapids, and Tarboro - and especially northeastward into nern NC and sern VA

Patrick Rockey WTKR‏Verified account @PatrickRockey 13m13 minutes ago RAIN FORECAST: 7-day rain forecast from the Weather Prediction Center. Check radar--> https://ift.tt/2vsWBAZ

NWS Newport/Morehead‏Verified account @NWSMoreheadCity 22m22 minutes ago Heavy rains, gusty winds and minor coastal flooding will be possible Monday night and Tuesday as low pressure approaches then moves across the area. Please monitor the latest NWS forecasts for the latest on this system.

It's probably archived here somewhere. I remember Brick's kid's ball games getting rained out something like a gazillion times

May, June, July per the CPC

NWS Raleigh‏Verified account @NWSRaleigh 19m19 minutes ago Heavy rain is expected next week across the Carolinas. With rivers running high from prior rainfall, a few locations could see some minor river flooding. This is not expected to be a widespread flooding event but soggy conditions will prevail through much of next week. #ncwx

Day 2 outlook (Sunday)

NWSCPC‏Verified account @NWSCPC 4m4 minutes ago Yikes! Cold temps and another round of hard freezes are likely next week over east-central US...http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/ …

NWS Newport/Morehead‏Verified account @NWSMoreheadCity 15m15 minutes ago There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for most of our inland areas tomorrow with the primary threat being strong wind gusts. Storms should begin to impact the region starting around midday. #ncwx

With the potential of more snow this weekend, I wonder what the record for frozen events (significant or not) in the month of March is for central NC?

RAH this morning: The GFS and ECMWF are coming into better agreement on timing, focusing precip from late Sat afternoon through mid to late morning Sun, and partial thicknesses from both models support a trend to broad corridors of mixed ptypes, mainly along/north of 64 through Sat night, finishing off as mostly light snow Sun as cold air rushes in on the back side of the secondary low tracking away from the Southeast coast. Given the high uncertainty of specific ptypes at this time range, however, have opted for a rain/snow mix, mainly across the north, with mostly rain south, for the time being.

For 3/19-3/20

Meteogram 12z GFS wants to give RDU 3.9" (10:1 ratio) snow on Wednesday. http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=krdu&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on

NWS Raleigh‏Verified account @NWSRaleigh 1h1 hour ago These radar simulations on the first graphic will give you an idea of general timing, coverage, and location of storms tonight, with an associated summary of impacts and safety/precautionary actions in the second graphic.

RAH: For early next week, another strong low pressure system will track across the Ohio Valley, with patchy to widespread rain developing ahead of the low due to modest isentropic lift Monday into Monday night. As the low deepens and moves offshore, expect wrap around rain showers on Tuesday, and there is a chance that we could see enough cold air advection to cause a brief mix with snow across the northern tier before the precip ends late Tuesday.