Solak

Was wondering where to post about tonight's flizzard. I like the optimistic last sentence... strong convection or wintry precipitation

RAH has already changed their clocks! It's currenty 8:26AM... forecast page says: Last update 8 Mar 9:00 am EDT

Per Meteogram Generator, 12z GFS gives RAH 1.6" snow next Mon night (3/12) http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/bufkit/image_loader.phtml?site=krdu&nam=on&nam_mos=on&namm=on&gfs_mos=on&gfs=on&gfsm_mos=on&gfsm=on&nws=on&rap=on&obs=on&nam4km=on&con=on&ratio=11&max_t=on&cobb=on&compaction=on&mean_mt=on&max_mt=on&mean=on

Today's afternoon AFD from RAH... Temperatures may actually be near normal Saturday and Sunday, dropping below normal once again behind the front Sunday night. The biggest forecast problem/concern with this system is the wrap around moisture behind the front as the low moves away from the area and whether the temperatures will be conducive for some wintry precipitation to occur. For now, will keep mention of any wintry precipitation out of the official forecast as temperatures (as of the latest model runs) remain above freezing, but not by much and heavier rates could still result in p-type issues, mainly across northern portions of Central NC.

Until 430 PM EST * At 356 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 7 miles west of Fort Bragg, moving east at 30 mph.

Weatherboy Weather Facebook page

The hype has begun!!!!

GFS keeps chipping away at the rain. 12z now shows less than an inch this week for RDU.

RAH Friday night through Sunday: The period from Friday night through Saturday is expected to be dry with below normal temperatures. The bigger question comes with the system moving into the region Saturday night and Sunday. There continues to be a chance for some wintry precipitation Saturday night into early Sunday morning, before temperatures rise into the mid 30s and the precipitation transitions to rain. Will need to keep a close eye on this system in the coming days, but for right now its too early to speculate about impacts with this system.

For you hardcore model enthusiasts: Ryan Maue | weather.us‏Verified account @RyanMaue 5m5 minutes ago Finished development of ECMWF EPS ensemble precipitation type (PTYPE) + cyclone locations w/MSLP for @weathermodels_ All 51 ensembles at full grid resolution for 15 days. Preview here: http://wx.graphics/models/ecmwf/eps_ensembles.php …

6z GFS says soggy times ahead... (KJNX) 16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 4.15 " and Convective: 0.11 "

LOL crankyweatherguy‏ @crankywxguy 19m19 minutes ago I'll be in my fort....

Pest control guy told me yesterday it's going to snow on 2/2 and 2/14. His wife read it in the Almanac! Almanac got the last 2 snows correct, he said.

Jonathan Blaes‏ @jlblaes 1m1 minute ago Increasing Threat for HSLC Severe Weather on Tuesday Morning across Portions of Virginia and North Carolina https://cimmse.wordpress.com/2018/01/23/increasing-threat-for-hslc-severe-weather-on-tuesday-morning-across-portions-of-virginia-and-north-carolina/ …

NWS Raleigh‏Verified account @NWSRaleigh 20m20 minutes ago A cold front will pass through the area overnight tonight into early Tuesday morning. A broken line of showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder will accompany this frontal passage, producing isolated heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of central #NCwx.

Valid 230100Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF THE CAROLINAS AND VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Strong thunderstorms may impact the piedmont of the Carolinas and Virginia by late tonight, accompanied by at least some risk for severe weather. ...01Z Outlook Update... A 90-100+ kt cyclonic 500 mb jet over parts of the lower Ohio and Tennessee Valleys is expected to continue nosing eastward through the central Appalachians by 12Z Tuesday morning. As it does, a fairly deep and occluding associated cyclone is forecast to migrate from parts of the Midwest into the lower Great Lakes region. ...Appalachians/Mid Atlantic Coast region... Of somewhat greater concern is the potential for at least a bit more substantive boundary layer moistening (surface dew points increasing to near 60f) off the Gulf of Mexico and western Atlantic into areas to the east of the central/southern Appalachians overnight. Latest model output suggests that associated destabilization will coincide with strengthening of lower/mid tropospheric warm sector wind fields to 50-70 kt, and increasing synoptic forcing for ascent. Although the thermodynamic environment overall still appears marginal, an increase in thunderstorm development seems increasingly probable across the piedmont of the Carolinas into Virginia by 09-12Z, which may be accompanied by at least some risk for potentially damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado.

A couple Tweets from JB 1) Saturday summary on http://Weatherbell.com later today will explain why the worst of the cold for the nation may be still on the way, I grow more impressed each day. Setups similar to other great February invasions 1967,1933,2015 being studied now along with MJO rotation years 2) Unlike last winter, There will be some of the coldest air in the world ready to strike when MJO goes into the holy grail of cold phases in Feb 8,1,2,3 forecasted on ECMWF to where it was around Dec 17 GLAAM also heading higher Winter in west for now, but east target after thaw

Time will tell..... NWSCPC‏Verified account @NWSCPC 3m3 minutes ago February is forecast to be warmer than usual for the Four Corners region, along the southern tier, and up the east coast, while below-normal temperatures are likely for the Pacific Northwest through Northern Rockies. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/ …

Got it rescheduled to Feb 7th! I was planning on 70 Bus. to Tryon Rd. in Garner. Roads are treated, traffic would be less crazy than 40.

Thanks!

Normally, I'd be excited for the upcoming event, but my wife had an inpatient procedure scheduled for tomorrow at Wake Med-Cary, after which she'll be discharged. I hate driving in anything other than sunny weather. Not looking forward to the 1 hr. + drive each way tomorrow. At least the roads around the hospital should be OK, I guess.

NWSCPC‏Verified account @NWSCPC 7m7 minutes ago The #LaNina advisory continues, as CPC/@climatesociety forecasters anticipate La Niña is likely (~85-95%) through Northern Hemisphere winter, with a transition to ENSO-neutral expected during the spring. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml …

From the NC Climate Office blog today... This weekend, a reinforcing shot of cold air is on the way, and parts of the Coastal Plain with snow still on the ground could be looking at some of their coldest temperatures in years. Sunday morning's forecasted low in Edenton is 5°F. The last time temperatures dropped that low there was almost 22 years ago on February 5, 1996, and that station has only been that cold seven times since 1872. Rare air, indeed. http://climate.ncsu.edu/climateblog?id=251

Really random local banter... McCall's BBQ in Clayton has closed it's doors! http://www.newsobserver.com/entertainment/restaurants/article192881694.html