Solak

06z GFS long range tosses a bone... 348 Wed 09/19 18Z 72 ° 49 °

14 days dry

Overachieving 835 AM AST Wed Sep 05 2018 ...FLORENCE BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...FIRST OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON... Recent satellite imagery indicates that Florence is still strengthening and is now a major hurricane. Maximum sustained winds are estimated to be 120 mph (195 km/h). This increase in intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued with the 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC) advisory package. 5:00 AM Discusssion INIT 05/0900Z 21.4N 44.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 05/1800Z 22.2N 46.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 06/0600Z 23.2N 48.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 06/1800Z 24.2N 50.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/0600Z 24.9N 51.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 08/0600Z 25.6N 54.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 09/0600Z 26.8N 56.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 10/0600Z 28.7N 58.2W 85 KT 100 MPH

Crazy here. Went from 91/70 (98) to 88/77 (100) in the last 40 minutes! Rainless again.

Talk about polar opposites... crankyweatherguy‏ @crankywxguy 21m21 minutes ago FLO: The Court Jester now heads SW at rapid motion into Florida while the GOOFUS rips out to sea well east of Bermuda. I have my reasons for ignoring models until a specific point in time....I think you now see why. All Thoughts & listed blogs: http://www.stormhamster.com/resource.htm

Well, this is a little different. Allan Huffman‏ @RaleighWx 12m12 minutes ago 12z ECMWF forecast track for #Florence

The 5:00 AM advisory didn't have Gordon reaching 45mph for another 36 hours ---but here we are 3 1/2 hours later.... SUMMARY OF 830 AM EDT...1230 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.1N 80.7W ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF KEY LARGO FLORIDA ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF MARCO ISLAND FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

Lots of thunder overhead from storms 10 miles to the SW moving slowly away. Still no rain.

National Hurricane Center‏Verified account @NHC_Atlantic 4m4 minutes ago NHC is issuing advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven located near the Central Bahamas and northern Cuba. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of the central Gulf Coast. Here are Key Messages for this advisory and go to http://hurricanes.gov for info.

A new month begins, the weather remains the same. Some keep getting showers/storms, some not so lucky. Sitting on day 11 without rain here.

Saturday morning AFD (RAH) The bigger question remains what happens with the tropics through the period, as the medium-range models cannot seem to agree the ECMWF has a tropical system hitting the northern Gulf coast mid-week, while the GFS hints at a system approaching the Mid-Atlantic coast over the weekend. Will wait to see if they start to agree more before over- analyzing the "what if`s" of each scenario.

Nine consecutive days w/no rain.

Yep, and the official wording in the AFD this morning for this says... The WAA return flow will also return the muggies

Had a trace last evening. 64 this morning at the house.

It's coming... NWS Raleigh‏Verified account @NWSRaleigh 17m17 minutes ago A front is expected to sweep through central #NCwx this evening, spurring a few scattered showers and storms along the way. Behind the front, cooler and drier weather is expected to settle in through the weekend. Full forecast: http://www.weather.gov/rah

0.16" overnight

1.28" last night.

Looks like it might continue tonight... Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly between midnight and 4am.

Was thinking the same thing yesterday. Very few storms this year during 'peak heating'.

0.08" overnight. Looks like Wake got pounded... 4.15" at the NWS/NCSU campus, reports of lots of water rescues and flooded roads.

Yea, picked up another 1.23" overnight. Lightning was pretty intense at times. Must have hit something in the area... power was out for about 7 hours. Came back on about 5:30 this morning.

0.03" yesterday, 0.05" so far today.

I miss seeing the daily 384hr random tropical systems.

Wow, today's former 50% chance now says... Partly sunny, with a high near 88.

Our loud was very distant. Just showers by the time it got here. 0.38" overnight.