Solak

One of the 200 or so that stayed on Ocracoke Island is Tweeting the storm. @JohnMoretti5 7m7 minutes ago Update: For those wondering; dog has plenty of food and water. Winds are really picking up here and I’ve lost several shingles from my roof. Water is rising. If I said I wasn’t nervous, I’d be lying. #HurricanceFlorence #Florence

Recon: 953.8mb

Please be careful if you're out taking pictures during the storm.

0.04" in a sunshower yesterday morning.

Another ERC?

8:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 13 Location: 33.1°N 75.1°W Moving: NW at 12 mph Min pressure: 956 mb Max sustained: 110 mph

I'm just thankful we're (SE Coast) not staring down the barrel of a 155mph beast like they thought 2 days ago.

crankyweatherguy‏ @crankywxguy 42m42 minutes ago Continues to ride north of the 5pm cone. After they adjusted the 5pm cone north because...it was riding north of the 11am cone. Yeah, that's kind of a trend.

Slightly weaker again. 8:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 Location: 31.5°N 73.2°W Moving: NW at 16 mph Min pressure: 956 mb Max sustained: 115 mph

Meteogram 18z GFS gives Raleigh 8.41" 12z was 4.52"

Latest from NWS Raleigh NWS Raleigh‏Verified account @NWSRaleigh 28m28 minutes ago An overview of the impacts we expect from #Florence across central NC. Impacts from high winds & flash flooding are extreme across the Coastal Plain, lessening the farther NW you go across the region. However, everyone should prepare for at least some impacts to life & property.

Today's 12z GFS shows an interesting entity (Issac remnants?) that comes up through Cuba into the big bend of FL, then slides up the coast inland as a cold front approaches. This is for day 10 onward. Meanwhile, STS Joyce has formed in the central Atlantic.

A narrow window of opportunity remains during the next 24 hours or so for Florence to strengthen a little when the hurricane passes over the warmer SSTs and deeper warm water/higher upper-ocean heat content associated with the Gulf Stream, and low vertical shear conditions of 5-10 kt will aid in any strengthening process. However, significant strengthening is not anticipated due to Florence's large and expanding inner-core wind field.

5:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 Location: 30.9°N 72.5°W Moving: NW at 16 mph Min pressure: 949 mb Max sustained: 120 mph

@RaleighWx 2m2 minutes ago The 12z ECMWF brings the eye of #Florence over Cape Fear around 11am Friday.

2:00 PM EDT Wed Sep 12 Location: 30.4°N 71.8°W Moving: NW at 16 mph Min pressure: 948 mb Max sustained: 125 mph

1.03"

This was in the RAH mid-morning discussion. Latest upr air data over the sern US this morning indicates a developing mid-upr level ridge there is already 10-20 meters stronger than forecast. This strengthening ridge is separated from an even stronger sub-tropical ridge situated several hundred miles n of Bermuda, by a tropopause-level trough axis stretching from about 100 miles east of HSE sswwd to an embedded circulation 200 miles east of JAX, sswd to another circulation centered about 150 miles north of the Yucatan. The presence of both that trough axis, and the developing/expanding ridge over the sern US, will ultimately serve to slow/halt the nwwd progress of powerful Hurricane Florence, particularly by Thu, when the anomalously strong ridge n of Bermuda weakens and drifts swwd.

https://www.weather.gov/rnk/emer_severe

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

8:00 AM EDT Wed Sep 12 Location: 29.4°N 70.7°W Moving: WNW at 17 mph Min pressure: 943 mb Max sustained: 130 mph

Everything you need to know here. this is this morning's NWS Raleigh briefing. https://www.weather.gov/media/rah/briefing/NWSRaleighLatestBriefing.pdf

Saw a post/photo on Twitter yesterday... 40 pack of Deer Spring water for $38.95 listed on Amazon.

The NHC doesn't change the track/cone on the intermediate advisories. The only thing different is the 8PM location and winds. New track will come out with the full advisory at 11PM.

From the 5:00PM disco: The 12Z GFS model made a significant shift to the west, the UKMET made a shift to the east, and the ECMWF track has remained basically unchanged through 72 hours. As a result the consensus models have made only minor track shifts to the west. What is noticeable is that all of the global and regional models are indicating that the steering currents will collapse by 72 h when Florence is approaching the southeast U.S. coast. The weak steering currents are expected to continue through the weekend, which makes the forecast track on days 3-5 quite uncertain.