Solak

How often do AFDs mention getting dry slotted 4-5 days in advance? From RAH... The eventual rainfall amounts will depend on the exact track of the surface low lifting up the coast and how quickly the area get's dry slotted, which would transition rain to increasingly more drizzly in nature.

43 out right now. They've lowered our low from 36 to 32.

What is this Wind Chill thing in our local observations?

The system is still there, but in recent model runs it appears to be a coastal runner instead of inland/Apps track, lessening the severe threat. Still a week out, however.

Michigan --- 41 and instability thundershowers. NC - 70 and another lame cold front with attempted sprinkles.

There's a banter thread for this off-topic chit-chat.

It's been nice to have two September days in a row, since there wasn't a September. Pretty good temperature bust today... forecast was for a high of 72, topped out at 82.

51 here at the house this morning; 50 at the airport (KJNX)

NC Emergency Managem‏Verified account @NCEmergency 33m33 minutes ago Total power outages as of 7:30 am on Oct. 12, is 497,673. The majority of these outages are in Alamance, Forsyth, Guilford, Orange, Mecklenburg, Rockingham and Wake counties.

Here's a link for just NC that includes all the electric providers. https://poweroutage.us/area/state/north carolina

The wind direction has shifted, but it's pretty still for the moment. Picked up about 1.25" or so today. Lights are starting to flicker.

From NHC: It should also be noted that an area of damaging wind gusts of up to 50 kt has developed around the northwest side of the circulation over central North Carolina and Virginia this afternoon. As a result, the gust factor has been increased in this advisory, as this area of strong winds will spread northward and eastward across portions of eastern Virginia and northeastern North Carolina this evening and tonight.

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...36.1N 78.8W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

Reposting for FallsLake TS Michael will track NE of the forecast area over the next 6-9 hours, with a slowly waning influence. But until it exits, the band of strong to damaging N winds within convection on the immediate W side of the storm center, just ahead of the incoming cold front, will progress slowly E through central NC. We've seen numerous reports of wind gusts up to 35-45 kts already, and based on the latest trends (including 50-60 kts observed by the WFO Blacksburg radar at 1000-1500 ft AGL) and consistent high res model guidance, this will only get worse as it tracks east. With these intense winds and accompanying second round of rain, will maintain the tropical storm warning into the early evening.

I'll make sure I tell the tornadoes to wait. @HenryMargusity 3m3 minutes ago Tornadoes for southeast Virginia this afternoon. Make sure the kids are safely out of school before they hit.

Duke Power outages steadily climbing in NC/SC. from 30K to 50K in the last hour. https://www.duke-energy.com/outages/current-outages

PowerOutage.us‏ @PowerOutage_us 59s59 seconds ago Over 840k #PowerOutages from #HurricaneMichael. 347k customers out in #Georgia, 341k out in #Florida, 76k out in #SouthCarolina, and 58k out in #Alabama. Check out https://poweroutage.us/ for #PowerOutage details.

Nothing like waking up to a low of 77 degrees in October. A "T" of rain on Wednesday

NWS Raleigh‏Verified account @NWSRaleigh 4m4 minutes ago 715 am...Not surprisingly there will be a breeze around for much of the day and this evening but a period of much stronger wind gusts will move across central NC near and along the back side of Michael. Strongest gusts in the Triad b/t 12-5pm, and the Triangle b/t 3-8pm. #Michael

NWS is slowly lowering our rain amounts. 2-3" and 2-3" is now 1-2", 1-2". Not unexpected, since they've been mentioning the heavy rain axis was shifting N&W of this area.

FWTW, when you zoom in on the track, the circulation center is currently going to go through central NC just West of I 95, and 4 miles NW of me. http://ds.weatherflow.com/storm/michael#35.628,-78.415,13,8,84999,1

And, although we haven't had any rain today... Additional 2-4 inches, with locally higher amounts

This confuses me. 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... * LOCATIONS AFFECTED - Smithfield - Clayton * WIND - LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Below tropical storm force wind - Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 40 mph

NWS Raleigh‏Verified account @NWSRaleigh 18s19 seconds ago The Tropical Storm Warning has been expanded to include Durham, Franklin, Granville, Halifax, Nash, Vance, Wake, and Warren Counties in Central #NCwx. Remnants from #HurricaneMichael will cross the area on Thursday, spreading heavy rain + damaging winds. https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201810102107-KRAH-WTUS82-HLSRAH …

0.04" Tuesday. Nothing from today's 80% chance. Everything stayed well west of here.