Solak

Clayton

Searching for pingers or flakes. 33 and rain down this way.

Over an inch of rain here now!

Out at the beach... As of 1245 PM Sun...Updated to increase winds later today and esp this evening, as low pres now centered near Charleston races NE and up the NC coast this evening. The low will quickly deepen as it feeds off the warm Gulf Stream waters, with most models indicating 15mb per 12hr pres falls as it exits off the OBX. Have upgraded OBX zones to a high wind warning as could see some gusts to 60 mph this evening. Otherwise, breezy and wet conditions across E NC with large area of stratiform rain continuing to move through the region.

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Picked up about 3/4" snow and sleet. Enough to pretty things up for a little while. Just a light mist/drizzle now with a cold 33 degree breeze.

RAH Disco: Snow/Ice amounts: Only a slight change in forecast snow amounts with the heavy wet snowfall axis of 8 to 12 inches expected to along and north of I-85, with the predominate p-type expected to fall as mainly, with diabatic and strong dynamic lift/cooling supporting a deep near freezing isothermal layer. Lift and saturation will begin to wane 21 to 00z, with p-type changing over to a light freezing rain/drizzle overnight. Ice amounts are expected to be less than a 0.10". Just south of this heavy snow area and west of US 1, snow amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible, with the bulk of the snow occurring through mid to late morning. Then as the warm air aloft spreads into the area from the southeast, p-type is expected to change-over to freezing rain, with a 0.10 to 0.25" of freezing rain/ice possible through the afternoon. If the change-over to freezing rain occurs quicker than forecast, snow amounts will be less, but ice amounts could easily exceed a 0.25" of an ice. Ice/freezing rain amounts combined with wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range will cause widespread damage from downed trees and power-lines. Finally, east of US-1 and south of I-85, warm nose spreading into the area during the mid to late morning will result in a sharp NW to SE reduction in snow and ice amounts. After a quick morning burst of snow and/or snow-sleet mix, which could bring 1 to 4 inches of snow to the area, a brief period of freezing rain can be expected before changing over to rain. Little to no ice is expected.

Forecast amounts have lowered here. Point forecast was 2-4", now 1-2". Zone forecast was 1-3", now"'around an inch".

Under a WWA for 1"-3" snow and ice; point forecast calls for 2"-4". Confusing.

Does what's happening in the midwest have any bearing on things here as far as the precip shield? OKC on Wednesday (per the AFD) was calling for 2"-4" with banding of 6" or more. Today, a trend of keeping more significant precipitation tonight and tomorrow along and south of the Red river.

NWS GSP‏Verified account @NWSGSP 4m4 minutes ago 5pm Friday Update: WINTER STORM WARNING expanded! Here's our updated snow/ice totals. We're still 12-24 hours until onset of any wintry precip; we will take another hard look overnight to refine totals. Prepare, prepare, prepare! #ncwx #scwx #gawx #wncwx #cltwx #gspwx #avlwx

18z NAM--- 1" zr for RDU? Yikes!

Allan Huffman‏ @RaleighWx 3m3 minutes ago As I am working on this storm, the one think I can say with pretty good confidence. If you live in Hickory/Asheville. This looks like your storm. 12-18 is probably a safe bet and maybe even a little conservative. Enjoy. #ncwx

For those with coastal concerns, MHX Coastal Storm Briefing. https://www.weather.gov/media/mhx/LatestBriefing.pdf?fbclid=IwAR32vZ7ad46R716STT6MAcdEz7RArRBPbdzmLIzpquKzmNGdZ5I3EdGtghs

RAH just wrote a book! .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 330 PM Thursday... ...A significant winter storm is expected Sat night through Mon; a winter storm watch is being issued for the NW Piedmont... Overview for Sat-Mon: A significant wintertime storm for NC is growing more likely with every model run. Differences among the models regarding timing, track, precip amounts, and the vertical thermal structure and advection patterns persist, which makes it challenging to pinpoint the details, but the models are coming into better agreement now. It's very likely that parts of central NC, primarily N and W of the Triangle, will see several inches of snow, at least, along with some icing. Lesser (but still impactful) accumulations of ice and snow are expected at some point of the event over all but the far SE. -Synopsis: A potent mid-upper trough/low will cross the S Plains, Gulf States, and Southeast during this period, as a surface low tracks along the Gulf Coast/S GA/FL Panhandle, evolving into a Miller B configuration as this energy transfers to a deepening low just off GA/SC on Sun. This low should then intensify as it tracks NE just off the NC coast through Mon. A second, strong polar stream wave will dive through the Midwest and lower Miss Valley Sat night through Mon, shearing across the Southeast states and prolonging the lift and moisture over central NC as yet another deepening low pressure center holds just off NC. -Timing: Model agreement has improved since yesterday, with the ECMWF/Canadian still the preferred solution, while the NAM is quite close and the GFS still a fast solution. Leaning toward the ECMWF/Canadian/NAM, have brought chance pops gradually into the SW CWA on Sat, expanding slowly to the N and NE late day and overnight. The heaviest precip is expected to fall from early Sun morning to mid afternoon Sun, in conjunction with the most intense upper divergence/mid level DPVA and most vigorous and deepest moist upglide. After this time, drying aloft (in the -12C to -18C layer) and waning forcing for ascent should mean a trend to lower precip rates, although high pops will persist. -Precip types: Increased confidence in a cold column has prompted expansion of the areas likely to be impacted by wintry weather. The far SE is still likely to see mostly rain through Sun, albeit with a little wintry precip early in the event and again on Mon. Roughly along the Highway 1 corridor including the Triangle, a longer duration of a wintry mix is anticipated, with a light glazing possible along with some snow and/or sleet accumulation ranging from one half inch to a few inches (this is the area that could see a tight gradient of lighter to heavier accumulations over a short distance). We could see a trend to a cold rain sometime on Sun in this zone, if low level warm advection on the N side of the coastal low becomes more prominent. For the NW Piedmont including the Triad, snow and sleet will be the predominant precip type for most of the event, with accumulations from several inches to just under a foot not out of the question. Some low level drying is expected by Mon, but continued lift and moisture in the -12C to -18C depth should result in a secondary chance of some light snow or a wintry mix associated with the polar wave and some additional light accumulations. -Temps: Expect highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s Sat and Mon, with around 30 to the mid 40s for highs on Sun. Lows will be mainly in the upper 20s to mid 30s. The diurnal range in most areas will be very low. -What to watch out for/what could change: First, the inland penetration of warm air on the N side of coastal lows is always problematic. This could cause a significant warm nose to develop aloft, shifting snow over to more sleet or freezing rain in some areas. Second, if surface temperatures don't warm up as advertised on Sun, especially along and E of the Highway 1 corridor, wintry precip could last longer, increasing accumulations of both snow and ice. Third, there are indications in the models that a band of heavier convective precip is possible over the Southeast, just inland to just off the Southeast coast, and this could serve to interrupt transport of high moisture into central NC; if this were to occur, liquid equivalent precip amounts would be lower. Finally, if we can achieve banded snow at any point in this event, we could potentially see localized zones of very heavy snowfall over portions of the Piedmont.

Chris Bruin‏Verified account @TWCChrisBruin 15m15 minutes ago Latest runs of snowfall forecast for a few cities. Still some differences but SNOW LIKELY and A LOT OF IT!

It's almost like they don't want snow in the forecast Again, this is all predicated on getting enough warm air into central NC to allow surface temps to trend above freezing over the forecast area.

RAH: Sat through Mon night: A significant wintertime storm for NC is growing more likely with every model run. Differences among the models regarding timing, track, precip amounts, and the vertical thermal structure and advection patterns persist, which makes any details still difficult to pin down. But the chance of at least some wintry precip over the central NC forecast area with this event is growing. -Synopsis: A potent mid-upper trough/low will cross the S Plains, Gulf States, and Southeast during this period, as a surface low tracks along the Gulf coast/S GA/FL Panhandle, likely evolving into a Miller B configuration as this energy transfers to a deepening low just off the Carolinas late Sun. This low should then intensify as it tracks NE just off the NC coast through Mon. A second, strong polar stream wave will dive through the Midwest Sat night through Sun night and into the southern stream wave, prolonging the lift over central NC as the column cools further. -Timing: Following the slower ECMWF/Canadian/NAM solution over the faster GFS, the heaviest precip is expected to fall from early morning to late afternoon on Sun, in conjunction with strong upper divergence and mid level DPVA. After this time, drying aloft and waning forcing for ascent should mean a trend to lower precip rates. -Ptype: Still appears to be mostly a rain event through Sun in areas from the Triangle to the S and E, albeit with a little wintry precip early in the event. For areas N and W of the Triangle, including the Triad and most VA border counties, a wintry mix with some accumulation is expected for most of the event through Sun, although we may see a trend to mostly cold rain Sun afternoon. Some low level drying is expected by Mon, but decent moisture and lift in the -12C to -18C depth should result in a secondary chance of some light snow or a wintry mix associated with the polar wave. It's too early for specific amounts, but an inch or two is not out of the question in the Triad region, with a non-zero chance of greater amounts. This could change, however, especially given the sensitivity of precip types to small changes in thermal structure and lift, so stay tuned. -Temps: Expect highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s Sat and Mon, with low 30s to upper 40s on Sun. Again, this is all predicated on getting enough warm air into central NC to allow surface temps to trend above freezing over the forecast area. Lows in the 30s.

Stolen from Twitter... Melissa Griffin‏ @mlgriffinWX1 Dec 3 Some offices have 'Swear Jars,' our office has this...

Made it to 73 yesterday, 72 today. Front is passing through- temps slowly falling.

RAH afternoon disco: Sat-Mon: A strengthening mid-upper trough/low will cross the S Plains, Gulf States, and Southeast during this period. Models are fairly uniform in showing some polar stream interaction such that the system should slow and deepen as it crosses the Southeast. This will allow for cyclogenesis over the NW Gulf (where so many of our wintertime storms are born) and foster further intensification as it crosses the Gulf Coast / N FL and off the Southeast coast by Sun night or Mon. The ECMWF remains significantly slower than the GFS (by 6-12 hrs) and takes a farther-north path, such that it is generally a bit warmer but with greater QPF as its slower movement allows for greater deepening near the coast with a long-lived deformation back extending well inland through Mon. While confidence is rising that we'll get a decent precip event and that a single dominant low is the most likely pattern of cyclogenesis, there is still too much model spread for much specificity. This model spread is not surprising considering the mid level feature in question is still currently well out over the Pacific. Will maintain high chance to likely pops, higher across the S and SE, starting early Sat but peaking Sun. Climatology for immature (still-developing) Miller A patterns supports broad corridors of mixed precip type, and the deterministic forecast will indicate this. It's far too early to speculate about amounts of wintry precip, but we could be looking at a few inches of liquid (or liquid equivalent) before all is said and done. Highs each day will generally range from the upper 30s to mid 40s NW to SE, with nightly lows in the 30s. -GIH

Local point forecast - Clayton NC area. Saturday Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Saturday Night Rain and snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

NWSCPC‏Verified account @NWSCPC 2m2 minutes ago Our updated December outlook favors warmer and wetter than normal conditions across much of the country. Best chances for a cooler than normal December are across the Central Great Basin and Northern New England. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/lead14/ …