SBUWX23
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Everything posted by SBUWX23
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If these solutions with a warm nose/surface warming are correct for portions of LI, it looks brief. Its mainly after the bulk of the steady snow is pushing north. I guess you gotta sniff it to get into better snow as well. It appears to me that it will drop back below freezing shortly after it warms up. However, there may not be snow growth any more. The meat of this event is beginning to look like a Monday night/Tuesday Am thing. -
No more warm nose at 850 on nam. Does lose saturation aloft briefly so some sleet maybe but this is ideal to get snow overnight Monday like this. Is it right? Seems to be most aggressive that early but let's see how everything else trends.
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There will be temperature gradients with this one too. Thermal gradients are part of the reason why we have precipitation. I actually argue the weaker system the harder it is to pinpoint because the advections are not as well resolved
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Just hoping we don't have sneaky warm layers 850 and below. The system is not well organized so I'm hopeful there won't be super strong WA to ruin the 1-2 inches
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Many models show an 850 mb warm nose scooting in during the day on Tuesday. I'm starting to think this may be inevitable as the warm advection forcing is what helps drive some of the initial bands that come in from the south.
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Personally would not lean on the Canadian for any of these. That is the last model I would factor in when trying to see a storm signal.
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The closer the low is to the coast the more of a chance the flow could bring in slightly warmer air at the surface and also you introduce stronger warm advection to potentially bring in a warm nose. These ideas are shown by the nam/rgem. The shifts that most should want are increases in qpf but the track on the cmc/ecmwf is ideal for most of us as is.
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Its also still weaker compared to the other solutions. I think the ceiling here is a 2-4 event given the progressive nature and also this not being a strong storm. Right now I would play it conservation though and say 1-2 is more likely and it still could be 1 or less.
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The GFS is just not developing precip well with the jet NW of the low like the CMC/RGEM/NAM are doing.
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One thing no one has mentioned: Its gonna be COLD tomorrow night and probably will struggle to get above freezing Monday. It should help with the "it wont stick during the day" concerns.
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That was all jet dynamics. The models did not handle the upper jet well at all leading up to it. Within 12-24 hours out the GFS i remember finally picked up on the amplification of the jet and we had excellent right entrance lift from a departing 160-180 kt. The flatter solutions leading up to the event led to models to have precip offshore.
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Notable shift NW at valid time 00z Wed with GEFS members compared to the 12z and 06z suite.
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As long as the low doesn't end up close to coast where an onshore flow develops
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Just heard a cicada
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The euro has more snow than the GFS now. Models are nodding at nothing other than uncertainty
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I was thinking this the other day. We have been fortunate with some of the historic events in the last 10 or so years.
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It's east of its 12z counterpart. It's also stronger as it comes up coast which does introduce concern of mixing but looks like 982 low se of mtp that would snow pretty much for all for a time too. So mixing verbatim but also probably a good storm involved either way.
