SBUWX23
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Everything posted by SBUWX23
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There is already light snow at KPHL. The dry air is being accounted for by the high res guidance. -
Yep it's over. Models never trend back to the NW.
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There is frontogenesis Involved so there will be a transition zone somewhere that could cut into the higher end snow amounts. I'd favor it getting over the I-95
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Not sure I understand your take here. No one is expecting a blizzard. With all due respect there is plenty of thermal forcing for several hours to support the consensus forecast of 1-3 or 2-4 depending on location. City is in a good spot for 2-4.
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Typical, we are in 4-5 day range now and models "backing off" on the end of week/early weekend potential.
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Typical, we are in 4-5 day range now and models "backing off" on the end of week/early weekend potential.
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Its cold. Its cold ahead of this wave. Take what we can get! Even if us on LI have to deal with some slop, even 2 inches before it will be wonderful. Plus its not a torch and it gets cold and hopefully will stick around before Fridays potential!
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If these solutions with a warm nose/surface warming are correct for portions of LI, it looks brief. Its mainly after the bulk of the steady snow is pushing north. I guess you gotta sniff it to get into better snow as well. It appears to me that it will drop back below freezing shortly after it warms up. However, there may not be snow growth any more. The meat of this event is beginning to look like a Monday night/Tuesday Am thing.
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No more warm nose at 850 on nam. Does lose saturation aloft briefly so some sleet maybe but this is ideal to get snow overnight Monday like this. Is it right? Seems to be most aggressive that early but let's see how everything else trends.
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There will be temperature gradients with this one too. Thermal gradients are part of the reason why we have precipitation. I actually argue the weaker system the harder it is to pinpoint because the advections are not as well resolved
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Just hoping we don't have sneaky warm layers 850 and below. The system is not well organized so I'm hopeful there won't be super strong WA to ruin the 1-2 inches
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Many models show an 850 mb warm nose scooting in during the day on Tuesday. I'm starting to think this may be inevitable as the warm advection forcing is what helps drive some of the initial bands that come in from the south.
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Personally would not lean on the Canadian for any of these. That is the last model I would factor in when trying to see a storm signal.
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The closer the low is to the coast the more of a chance the flow could bring in slightly warmer air at the surface and also you introduce stronger warm advection to potentially bring in a warm nose. These ideas are shown by the nam/rgem. The shifts that most should want are increases in qpf but the track on the cmc/ecmwf is ideal for most of us as is.
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Its also still weaker compared to the other solutions. I think the ceiling here is a 2-4 event given the progressive nature and also this not being a strong storm. Right now I would play it conservation though and say 1-2 is more likely and it still could be 1 or less.
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The GFS is just not developing precip well with the jet NW of the low like the CMC/RGEM/NAM are doing.
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One thing no one has mentioned: Its gonna be COLD tomorrow night and probably will struggle to get above freezing Monday. It should help with the "it wont stick during the day" concerns.
